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Author Topic: FL-St. Pete: Scott +1.6  (Read 694 times)
Polarized Elastic Libertarian MT Treasurer
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« on: November 03, 2018, 11:13:15 am »

49.1% Rick Scott (R)
47.5% Bill Nelson (D, inc.)

Already voted: Nelson +3.5
Plan to vote: Scott +8.7

This poll also shows Gillum winning by 2.

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_State_GEN_GovSenAg_November02_S8UG.pdf
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2018, 11:14:17 am »

Nelson/Scott race will be close, but Gillum will pull Nelson over the finish line.
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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2018, 12:04:01 pm »

YEAAAAAAHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2018, 12:05:43 pm »

Gillum will win.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2018, 12:13:55 pm »


Already voted: Nelson +3.5
Plan to vote: Scott +8.7

Is there any precedent for EV running 12 points more D than ED voting? I know Republicans won Florida on ED in 2016, but still...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2018, 12:27:55 pm »

Didnt St Petes literally just put out on like 2 days ago with Nelson winning?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2018, 12:30:02 pm »

Didnt St Petes literally just put out on like 2 days ago with Nelson winning?

Yes, two days ago they showed Nelson ahead by two.
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2018, 12:37:48 pm »

This looks like to be a Tracking Poll (2 Days ago they had Nelson ahead by 2). WOW, Split is still possible. Can Scott turn this around on E-Day? He's definitly within striking Distance.

Like it or not, the big Mo certainly in the Senate Race seems to be with Scott.
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DataGuy
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2018, 12:41:42 pm »

I've been wanting more polls like this one that include an "already voted" question. The few that I have seen seem to support the consistent historical pattern that early voting skews Democratic. Early voting is usually emphasized and embraced by Democrats more than Republicans, sometimes resulting in a Republican surge on Election Day.

That is definitely true in my state. When I was watching the election results for the SD-19 special, I knew almost immediately that Gallego had lost once I saw the early vote was tied.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2018, 01:43:31 pm »

What an odd assortment of questions to ask.

The party breakdown here is also very surprising.  Both Nelson and Scott are getting 18% of voters of the opposite party.
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Polarized Elastic Libertarian MT Treasurer
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2018, 02:19:02 pm »

Nelson/Scott race will be close, but Gillum will pull Nelson over the finish line.

It’s hilarious that Nelson is doing worse than McCaskill in some polls.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2018, 02:26:05 pm »

Should note that St. Pete was horrendous in the primary.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2018, 04:55:43 pm »

Should note that St. Pete was horrendous in the primary.
St. Pete was the only pollster to capture a Gillum surge in the final stretch...no idea what you mean
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2018, 04:58:48 pm »

Should note that St. Pete was horrendous in the primary.
St. Pete was the only pollster to capture a Gillum surge in the final stretch...no idea what you mean

They still had Graham up by 6.
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2018, 05:48:06 pm »

Should note that St. Pete was horrendous in the primary.
St. Pete was the only pollster to capture a Gillum surge in the final stretch...no idea what you mean

They still had Graham up by 6.
Everyone else had her up 10+ though lol

Hard to hold that against St Pete

Not saying they’re a great pollster, they’re not. Just there are much better reasons to be skeptical of this poll than the D primary.
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The Saint
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2018, 08:01:37 pm »

Should note that St. Pete was horrendous in the primary.
St. Pete was the only pollster to capture a Gillum surge in the final stretch...no idea what you mean

They still had Graham up by 6.

They did almost nail the GOP gubernatorial primary, though.

Not saying that as proof of why they are a good pollster as iirc they’re not the best.
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