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Author Topic: AZ-Trafalgar (R): Sinema +3  (Read 764 times)
Lou Barletta's Teeth
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« on: November 03, 2018, 11:20:56 pm »

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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2018, 11:25:53 pm »

I donít know how to intemperate the fact that two r leaning trash polls are finding Sinema up
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2018, 11:29:25 pm »

Looking forward to Senator Sinema

McSally is a disaster
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2018, 11:34:37 pm »

Congrats Senator Sinema!
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2018, 11:36:13 pm »

Why would they release this?
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2018, 11:44:54 pm »

Why would they release this?

They are a right-wing pollster, but they don't work for any specific campaign.
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2018, 11:45:42 pm »

Why would they release this?

Trafalgar isn't an internal poll, it just has a notably republican house effect. Which means this is actually a great poll for Sinema!
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olowakandi
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2018, 12:18:37 am »

R internal has Sinema ahead. NV they are underestimating Latino strength and AZ poll proves it, Rosen will win also
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2018, 12:25:30 am »

Yeah, it definitely looks like AZ if more likely to go Democratic than MO/IN (though both of those could go Democratic if they have a good enough night.)
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2018, 06:18:56 am »

Trafalgar isn't a right-leaning pollster, it's just a trash pollster. This is the same one that had Kid Rock leading Debbie Stabenow.
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2018, 06:35:42 am »

Trafalgar isn't a right-leaning pollster, it's just a trash pollster. This is the same one that had Kid Rock leading Debbie Stabenow.

Who knows if it was true.
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2018, 08:23:16 am »

Trafalgar was the only poll to have Trump ahead in Michigan in 2016
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« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2018, 08:46:07 am »

Trafalgar was the only poll to have Trump ahead in Michigan in 2016

And the only one to have him ahead by a lot in Nevada. For democrats, the good news is that they seem to either be accurate or miss a lot of Democrats and the bad news is that they are more than due for a poll that overestimates Democrats.
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2018, 09:36:23 am »

Iíve never understood why some Republicans thought a Senate race in a Democratic-trending Trump +3.5 state would be Lean or even Likely R in a worse year for Republicans than 2016 was. McSally is easily one of my least favorite Republican Senate candidates, so Iím fine with her losing if we can make up for a loss here elsewhere. Smiley
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2018, 10:11:59 am »

Trafalgar was the only poll to have Trump ahead in Michigan in 2016

They also had Roy Moore winning by 5.
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2018, 10:12:33 am »

If even Trafalgar is finding Sinema ahead, this race might be over.
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2018, 10:58:17 am »

If even Trafalgar is finding Sinema ahead, this race might be over.
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« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2018, 01:24:27 pm »

Trafalgar was the only poll to have Trump ahead in Michigan in 2016

They also had Roy Moore winning by 5.

Are they better in the Midwest or were MI/PA simply lucky flukes?
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