🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Middle-aged Europe]

I tend to be with RedPrometheus on this one. Due to his often erratic behavior it often seemed unclear what Gabriel actually stands for. He changed his mind so often. I also can't actually see him as a "great" Chancellor. But credit where credit is due... he managed to become the third-longest serving post-WWII SPD chairman, following Willy Brandt and Erich Ollenhauer in the 50s. If he were return to the top post he'd stand a chance at eventually becoming the SPD leader with the second-longest combined tenure.

[RedPrometheus]

A new shock poll from Emnid for the BamS:

CDU/CSU: 30%
SPD: 19%
Greens: 15%
FDP: 8%
Left: 10%
AfD: 13%
Others: 5%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm

[pilskonzept]

A new shock poll from Emnid for the BamS:

CDU/CSU: 30%
SPD: 19%
Greens: 15%
FDP: 8%
Left: 10%
AfD: 13%
Others: 5%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm

What's shocking about it - the SPD recovery?

[President Johnson]

Good the SPD bounces back, but 19% is still a ridiculously low number for such the party. The potential is much higher, but we have to play the right cards with the right personell.

[RedPrometheus]

A new shock poll from Emnid for the BamS:

CDU/CSU: 30%
SPD: 19%
Greens: 15%
FDP: 8%
Left: 10%
AfD: 13%
Others: 5%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm

What's shocking about it - the SPD recovery?

I would say so

[Middle-aged Europe]

New European Parliament election out from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen:

CDU/CSU 33%
Greens 19%
SPD 18%
AfD 10%
Left 8%
FDP 6%

The numbers are not much different from the last Infratest EP poll from last week, except that the Left is a bit stronger, and the FDP a bit weaker.


FGW has also released a Bundestag election poll today:

CDU/CSU 31%
Greens 20%
SPD 15%
AfD 13%
Left 9%
FDP 7%


I noticed that the AfD tends to be abit weaker in European election polls than in Bundestag polls, maybe due to Brexit anxiety? When the AfD discussed its EP election platform it made the news that they might support a withdrawal of Germany from the EU.

[Beezer]

I really have a hard time believing anyone who would vote for the AfD at the federal level would switch to another party in the EP elections because of their European platform. All of this also goes against everything we know with regards to European elections (second order elections and such). I really have no way of understanding how this weaker result in the Euro polls comes about.

[Tender Branson]

I really have a hard time believing anyone who would vote for the AfD at the federal level would switch to another party in the EP elections because of their European platform. All of this also goes against everything we know with regards to European elections (second order elections and such). I really have no way of understanding how this weaker result in the Euro polls comes about.

Different turnout/interest patterns.

History in Austria shows that FPÖ-voters are much more likely to turn out for national elections than for EU elections, because far-right voters don't really care about the EU or think everything is rotten in the EU, which is why many stay at home.

Supporters of other parties are more likely to turn out, so this creates the 2-3% differences in EU elections compared with national elections.

[pilskonzept]

Yeah, the German voters who turned out for the Euro elections have always been somewhat more pro-European than average. Surprised at the rather large difference for the SPD though.

[RedPrometheus]

Yeah, the German voters who turned out for the Euro elections have always been somewhat more pro-European than average. Surprised at the rather large difference for the SPD though.

I could imagine that Barley is more popular than Nahles.

[pilskonzept]

Yeah, the German voters who turned out for the Euro elections have always been somewhat more pro-European than average. Surprised at the rather large difference for the SPD though.

I could imagine that Barley is more popular than Nahles.

Making center-left voters vote SPD instead of the Greens? Probably. Doesn't really show up in the numbers, though.

[President Johnson]

I really have a hard time believing anyone who would vote for the AfD at the federal level would switch to another party in the EP elections because of their European platform. All of this also goes against everything we know with regards to European elections (second order elections and such). I really have no way of understanding how this weaker result in the Euro polls comes about.

Different turnout/interest patterns.

History in Austria shows that FPÖ-voters are much more likely to turn out for national elections than for EU elections, because far-right voters don't really care about the EU or think everything is rotten in the EU, which is why many stay at home.

Supporters of other parties are more likely to turn out, so this creates the 2-3% differences in EU elections compared with national elections.

I think this might be different this time in various countries of the EU and poses a threat to the stability of the European parliament. The AfD will be in double digits despite their recent scandals over donations and other stuff. The right feels emboldened and wants to undermine the EU by voting for AfD/FPÖ or Front National.

[Tender Branson]

CDU leader sparks row with joke about gender-neutral bathrooms

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer criticised for ‘disrespectful’ comment at carnival event

She was sold as a “mini Merkel”, a centrist in the same liberal mould as her predecessor as leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union. But Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has worked hard to court the conservative wing of her party since taking the top job, leading to controversy over comments she made about gender-neutral bathrooms.

Entertaining an audience at a carnival event in Baden-Württemberg last Thursday, Kramp-Karrenbauer – who was voted “Miss Homophobia 2018” by an LGBT group last year – said such bathrooms were “for the men who don’t know if they are still allowed to stand or already have to sit down when they pee”.

The CDU leader, who is favourite to succeed Merkel as Germany’s chancellor, made the comments at the High Favourable Court of Fools, a traditional carnival event in Stockach where a prominent guest is put on trial in front of a jury in jester hats.

Remarking on the fact she was facing an all-male jury, Kramp-Karrenbauer said women had been forced to become more emancipated because modern men were too feeble, especially the “latte macchiato delegation” in the liberal German capital.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/04/cdu-leader-annegret-kramp-karrenbauer-gender-neutral-bathrooms-row

[pilskonzept]

CDU leader sparks row with joke about gender-neutral bathrooms

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer criticised for ‘disrespectful’ comment at carnival event

She was sold as a “mini Merkel”, a centrist in the same liberal mould as her predecessor as leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union. But Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has worked hard to court the conservative wing of her party since taking the top job, leading to controversy over comments she made about gender-neutral bathrooms.

AKK correctly calculated that the move would be net vote gainer. Merkel silently approves. (That smirk, of course, is a product of your imagination.)

[RedPrometheus]

CDU leader sparks row with joke about gender-neutral bathrooms

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer criticised for ‘disrespectful’ comment at carnival event

She was sold as a “mini Merkel”, a centrist in the same liberal mould as her predecessor as leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union. But Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has worked hard to court the conservative wing of her party since taking the top job, leading to controversy over comments she made about gender-neutral bathrooms.

AKK correctly calculated that the move would be net vote gainer. Merkel silently approves. (That smirk, of course, is a product of your imagination.)

Apparently conservatives in the CDU are now hoping for a conservative revolution (heard it on a DF podcast)

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's not exactly news that AKK, who was generally seen as the most moderate/liberal candidate  in last year's CDU leadership election, was also the most conservative of the three with regards to LGBTI rights... while Jens Spahn, who was often seen as the most right-wing candidate in that election, was probably also the most progressive of the three on LGBTI rights (albeit mostly due to personal reasons).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wolfgang Kubicki, deputy chairman of the FDP and one of the Bundestag's five vice presidents, has demanded the expulsion of U.S. ambassador Richard Grenell from Germany:

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/nach-kritik-am-wehretat-kubicki-fordert-ausweisung-von-us-botschafter-grenell/24119308.html

[RedPrometheus]

Today I have to travel to Berlin as a delegate for the SPD conference that decides the platform for the European elections. Apparently Martin Schulz was not invited by „accident“

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/martin-schulz-kommt-nicht-zum-spd-europakonvent-a-1259214.html

[Lechasseur]

I was reading on the European Politico website that the German government will most likely collapse this year and new elections will be held. Is there any truth to that?

[Oryxslayer]

I was reading on the European Politico website that the German government will most likely collapse this year and new elections will be held. Is there any truth to that?

People were predicting earlier that if AKK didn't win there would be new elections to cement the legitimacy of a new CDU, but AKK won...

[Lechasseur]

I was reading on the European Politico website that the German government will most likely collapse this year and new elections will be held. Is there any truth to that?

People were predicting earlier that if AKK didn't win there would be new elections to cement the legitimacy of a new CDU, but AKK won...

No, I read this yesterday, and it had nothing to do with AKK, it was about the SPD pulling out of the coalition due to their tanking poll numbers

[RedPrometheus]

I was reading on the European Politico website that the German government will most likely collapse this year and new elections will be held. Is there any truth to that?

People were predicting earlier that if AKK didn't win there would be new elections to cement the legitimacy of a new CDU, but AKK won...

No, I read this yesterday, and it had nothing to do with AKK, it was about the SPD pulling out of the coalition due to their tanking poll numbers

It depends a lot on the state election in Bremen. If we lose it it will be very hard for the leadership of the SPD to keep us in the coalition.

[Lechasseur]

I was reading on the European Politico website that the German government will most likely collapse this year and new elections will be held. Is there any truth to that?

People were predicting earlier that if AKK didn't win there would be new elections to cement the legitimacy of a new CDU, but AKK won...

No, I read this yesterday, and it had nothing to do with AKK, it was about the SPD pulling out of the coalition due to their tanking poll numbers

It depends a lot on the state election in Bremen. If we lose it it will be very hard for the leadership of the SPD to keep us in the coalition.

And how likely is it that the SPD loses Bremen?

[Diouf]

RTL/ntv Trendbarometer comparison of approval rating between Merkel's 2018 average numbers and AKK now. AKK generally lower, most significantly with young voters, CDU voters and Green voters. However, her deficit with CSU voters and 45+ are slightly less than the average deficit, she is almost as popular as Merkel among FDP voters, and clearly more popular among AfD voters.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I was reading on the European Politico website that the German government will most likely collapse this year and new elections will be held. Is there any truth to that?

Well, there's a so-called evaluation clause in the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition agreement which cames into effect after half the current Bundestag's term is up (in October/November this year). Both the SPD and the CDU under AKK have repeatedly stressed that they're going the re-evaluate the government very thoroughly.