🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Here are the German EU election result of 2014:

CDU SPD GRÜNE DIE LINKE AfD CSU FDP FREIE WÄHLER PIRATEN Tierschutzpartei NPD FAMILIE ÖDP Die PARTEI REP Volksabstimmung BP PBC PRO NRW AUF CM DKP MLPD BüSo PSG

EVP SPE EGP EL – EVP ALDE EDP PPEU EA7 – – – – – – EFA ECPB – ECPB – EL – – –

8.812.653 8.003.628 3.139.274 2.168.455 2.070.014 1.567.448 986.841 428.800 425.044 366.598 301.139 202.803 185.244 184.709 109.757 88.535 62.438 55.336 52.649 50.953 30.136 25.147 18.198 10.369 8.924

30,0 % 27,3 % 10,7 % 7,4 % 7,1 % 5,3 % 3,4 % 1,5 % 1,4 % 1,2 % 1,0 % 0,7 % 0,6 % 0,6 % 0,4 % 0,3 % 0,2 % 0,2 % 0,2 % 0,2 % 0,1 % 0,1 % 0,1 % 0,0 % 0,0 %

29 27 11 7 7 5 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 – – – – – – – – – – –

EVP S&D Grüne/EFA GUE/NGL EKR EVP ALDE ALDE Grüne/EFA GUE/NGL fraktionslos EKR Grüne/EFA fraktionslos – – – – – – – – – – –

The two Christian-fundamentalist parties PBC (Partei Bibeltreuer Christen / "Party of bible-abiding Christians") and AUF merged into a newly founded party called Bündnis C in 2015. Arne Gericke, who was elected to the European Parliament via the Family Party, joined Bündnis C last year (after a quick side-trip to the Free Voters). Thus, that new party is represented in the current EU Parliament.

Büso is the party led by Helga Zepp-LaRouche. Yes, she is his wife, and yes, she's as crazy as him...

[RedPrometheus]

The 5 pm exit polls now show a much much closer race.

Share them please!

That's illegal unfortunately. Let's just say that the polls apparently overestimated one grand coalition party and there is a close race for second. But you'll only have to wait 30 more minutes anyway

Latest trends indicate no close race for second.

[SunSt0rm]

Someone did leak it

Europe Elects
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Germany: We have a feeling that one party is underperforming compared to polls, the rest of the parties in quite in the range of the expected. More details two exit polls, which will be published on @EuropeElects at 6 PM CEST. #EP2019 #Europawahl2019 #Rezo

[RedPrometheus]

Someone did leak it

Europe Elects
‏
 
@EuropeElects
Follow Follow @EuropeElects
More
Germany: We have a feeling that one party is underperforming compared to polls, the rest of the parties in quite in the range of the expected. More details two exit polls, which will be published on @EuropeElects at 6 PM CEST. #EP2019 #Europawahl2019 #Rezo

I saw three polls now during the last 10 minutes. Two are very similar one ist quite different. So even for me it's quite exciting

[Middle-aged Europe]

Not sure if someone has already pointed that out, but these were the strongest parties in the ten largest cities in former East Germany (coincidentally also the cities in former East Germany with a population larger than 100,000):

1. Leipzig: Greens
2. Dresden: AfD
3. Chemnitz: AfD
4. Halle (Saale): CDU (2nd place: Greens)
5. Magdeburg: CDU (2nd place: AfD)
6. Erfurt: CDU (2nd place: AfD)
7. Rostock: Greens
8. Potsdam: Greens
9. Jena: Greens
10. Cottbus: AfD

For some reason, there was also not a single instance in which the Greens came in first and the AfD second and vice versa. Usually, the second strongest party in both the Green and the AfD strongholds was the CDU (with the exception of Potsdam were the SPD was in 2nd place).

There are a number of factors who have possibly contributed to that pattern. The existence of a large (non-technical oriented) university for one thing, in close (but not exclusive) relation to that a larger number of "immigrants" from West Germany living there etc.


These are the cities with the largest universities in former East Germany, ranked by number of students:

1. Dresden: Voted AfD, but has "only" a polytechnic university
2. Leipzig: Greens
3. Potsdam: Greens
4. Halle (Saale): Greens
5. Jena: Greens
6. Magdeburg: AfD, not exlusively a polytechnic university, but has a strong emphasis on that field
7. Rostock: Greens
8. Chemnitz: AfD, polytechnic university
9. Greifswald: not among the 100,000+ cities... the CDU came in first here yesterday, with the Greens in 2nd place
10. Cottbus: AfD, polytechnic university

Erfurt: Has only an extremely small university

[Middle-aged Europe]

Not sure if someone has already pointed that out, but these were the strongest parties in the ten largest cities in former East Germany (coincidentally also the cities in former East Germany with a population larger than 100,000):

1. Leipzig: Greens
2. Dresden: AfD
3. Chemnitz: AfD
4. Halle (Saale): CDU (2nd place: Greens)
5. Magdeburg: CDU (2nd place: AfD)
6. Erfurt: CDU (2nd place: AfD)
7. Rostock: Greens
8. Potsdam: Greens
9. Jena: Greens
10. Cottbus: AfD

For some reason, there was also not a single instance in which the Greens came in first and the AfD second and vice versa. Usually, the second strongest party in both the Green and the AfD strongholds was the CDU (with the exception of Potsdam were the SPD was in 2nd place).

There are a number of factors who have possibly contributed to that pattern. The existence of a large (non-technical oriented) university for one thing, in close (but not exclusive) relation to that a larger number of "immigrants" from West Germany living there etc.


These are the cities with the largest universities in former East Germany, ranked by number of students:

1. Dresden: Voted AfD, but has "only" a polytechnic university
2. Leipzig: Greens
3. Potsdam: Greens
4. Halle (Saale): Greens
5. Jena: Greens
6. Magdeburg: AfD, not exlusively a polytechnic university, but has a strong emphasis on that field
7. Rostock: Greens
8. Chemnitz: AfD, polytechnic university
9. Greifswald: not among the 100,000+ cities... the CDU came in first here yesterday, with the Greens in 2nd place
10. Cottbus: AfD, polytechnic university

Erfurt: Has only an extremely small university

Another aspect here is the marginalization of the Left Party in eastern Germany. In none of the ten largest East German cities did they come in either first or second... probably unthinkabe only five years ago. Populist protest voters are now going for the AfD, while more traditionally leftist/progressive voters move to the Greens it seems, leaving the Left Party diminished with only 5.5% of the national vote. This split within the Left Party had already been personfied by the recent conflicts between the Wagenknecht (AfD-ish Left) and Kipping (Green-ish Left) wings of the party.

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State map



County map

[Middle-aged Europe]

The party with the largest increase of votes in each county:

[Middle-aged Europe]

Another odd pattern I just noticed for city of Dresden:


Largest party in this Sunday's European election: AfD (2nd place: CDU, then Greens)

Largest party in this Sunday's city council election: Greens (2nd place: CDU, then AfD)

[pilskonzept]

Another odd pattern I just noticed for city of Dresden:


Largest party in this Sunday's European election: AfD (2nd place: CDU, then Greens)

Largest party in this Sunday's city council election: Greens (2nd place: CDU, then AfD)

Voters prefer their cities to be run by sensible people. Europe, now...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Another odd pattern I just noticed for city of Dresden:


Largest party in this Sunday's European election: AfD (2nd place: CDU, then Greens)

Largest party in this Sunday's city council election: Greens (2nd place: CDU, then AfD)

Voters prefer their cities to be run by sensible people. Europe, now...

Looking at the vote distribution in Dresden it's certainly possible that many local Green voters simply cast their vote for Die PARTEI (4.7%), Volt (1.5%), Animal Protection Party (1.3%), ÖDP (1.2%), and the Pirates (1.1%) in the European election.

Similarly, some European AfD voters possibly cast their vote for the "Free Voters of Dresden" (5.3%) in the local election.

In essence, Die PARTEI received 4.7% in the European election, but only 1.8% in the local election, while the Free Voters received only 2.3% in the European election, but 5.3% in the local election.

[DL]

Any word on who will form government in Bremen?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Any word on who will form government in Bremen?

Wrong thread!

[Beezer]

Interesting to see the transformation of the AfD into a party of the east.

2014 vs 2019




Were there local elections in Hesse 5 years ago? And what caused the demise of the party in southern Bavaria?

[pilskonzept]

Interesting to see the transformation of the AfD into a party of the east.

And of random ed-up areas of the west, like Pirmasens or Gelsenkirchen. Any idea what's up with Germersheim? Because that one doesn't fit at all.

Were there local elections in Hesse 5 years ago?

No. Hesse was a stronghold of the Lucke era AfD, though. The decline was particularly strong - losses of 3% and more - in affluent parts of the Rhein-Main metro area, i.e. among people who love a hard FDP but won't vote for a soft NPD.

And what caused the demise of the party in southern Bavaria?

Much the same thing as in Hesse.

[Middle-aged Europe]

From what I sometimes see of East German AfD supporters on Facebook (a few of them I even knew personally) their voters in the east have started to embrace some sort of bizarre "East German nationalism". For instance, profile pictures that depict East Germany as the "Real Germany", while West Germany is the "Muslim Germany" are not uncommon. Often this is  intermingled with "Proud to be born in the GDR" pictures or the East German flag and the like. East Germany is 97% White therefore only that party counts is German etc. Sometimes I wonder when they will start to go fully separatist?

[Former President tack50]

From what I sometimes see of East German AfD supporters on Facebook (a few of them I even knew personally) their voters in the east have started to embrace some sort of bizarre "East German nationalism". For instance, profile pictures that depict East Germany as the "Real Germany", while West Germany is the "Muslim Germany" are not uncommon. Often this is  intermingled with "Proud to be born in the GDR" pictures or the East German flag and the like. East Germany is 97% White therefore only that party counts is German etc. Sometimes I wonder when they will start to go fully separatist?

That makes me wonder, is there anyone who wants the former GDR to secede from the rest of Germany?

After all, I imagine there must be at least a few tankie communists who opposed reunification in 1990 or something right?

[Middle-aged Europe]

From what I sometimes see of East German AfD supporters on Facebook (a few of them I even knew personally) their voters in the east have started to embrace some sort of bizarre "East German nationalism". For instance, profile pictures that depict East Germany as the "Real Germany", while West Germany is the "Muslim Germany" are not uncommon. Often this is  intermingled with "Proud to be born in the GDR" pictures or the East German flag and the like. East Germany is 97% White therefore only that party counts is German etc. Sometimes I wonder when they will start to go fully separatist?

That makes me wonder, is there anyone who wants the former GDR to secede from the rest of Germany?

After all, I imagine there must be at least a few tankie communists who opposed reunification in 1990 or something right?

Currently not, no...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

From what I sometimes see of East German AfD supporters on Facebook (a few of them I even knew personally) their voters in the east have started to embrace some sort of bizarre "East German nationalism". For instance, profile pictures that depict East Germany as the "Real Germany", while West Germany is the "Muslim Germany" are not uncommon. Often this is  intermingled with "Proud to be born in the GDR" pictures or the East German flag and the like. East Germany is 97% White therefore only that party counts is German etc. Sometimes I wonder when they will start to go fully separatist?

That makes me wonder, is there anyone who wants the former GDR to secede from the rest of Germany?

After all, I imagine there must be at least a few tankie communists who opposed reunification in 1990 or something right?

There are not few West Germans who want the former GDR to secede, and that isn't even completely new wishful thinking. Nowadays many left-wing populists make such a demand due to the rise of the AfD in East Germany, whereas ten years ago it was conservatives and neoliberals who suppoerted that idea due to the extreme unemployment rate and therefore the primacy of the Left.
Fun fact: The satire party DIE PARTEI called for the re-erection of the Berlin Wall during their foundation in 2004 as many West Germans and also some East Germans advocated for that suggestion.

[Hnv1]

From what I sometimes see of East German AfD supporters on Facebook (a few of them I even knew personally) their voters in the east have started to embrace some sort of bizarre "East German nationalism". For instance, profile pictures that depict East Germany as the "Real Germany", while West Germany is the "Muslim Germany" are not uncommon. Often this is  intermingled with "Proud to be born in the GDR" pictures or the East German flag and the like. East Germany is 97% White therefore only that party counts is German etc. Sometimes I wonder when they will start to go fully separatist?

That makes me wonder, is there anyone who wants the former GDR to secede from the rest of Germany?

After all, I imagine there must be at least a few tankie communists who opposed reunification in 1990 or something right?

Historically the West was proper Germany and the East\Prussia was called by some Asia. There's the story of how Konrad Adenauer wanted to give the GDR Berlin in exchange for some territories who were historically "German".

Some of my best friends live in Berlin and they always talk about how weird the old GDR people are, and that they sometimes prefer to live together without western flatmates

[Middle-aged Europe]

From what I sometimes see of East German AfD supporters on Facebook (a few of them I even knew personally) their voters in the east have started to embrace some sort of bizarre "East German nationalism". For instance, profile pictures that depict East Germany as the "Real Germany", while West Germany is the "Muslim Germany" are not uncommon. Often this is  intermingled with "Proud to be born in the GDR" pictures or the East German flag and the like. East Germany is 97% White therefore only that party counts is German etc. Sometimes I wonder when they will start to go fully separatist?

That makes me wonder, is there anyone who wants the former GDR to secede from the rest of Germany?

After all, I imagine there must be at least a few tankie communists who opposed reunification in 1990 or something right?

Historically the West was proper Germany and the East\Prussia was called by some Asia. There's the story of how Konrad Adenauer wanted to give the GDR Berlin in exchange for some territories who were historically "German".

Some of my best friends live in Berlin and they always talk about how weird the old GDR people are, and that they sometimes prefer to live together without western flatmates

There's always the other side of the story though. As far as I have heard almost my entire family - who is East German - went for the Greens this election, including my grandparents. Which is certainly odd considering that aside from myself and my mom nobody really tended to support the Greens before. I wonder if that would have ever happened hadn't been for the rise of the AfD or something. Germany has become much more polarized and the most politically polarized within Germany place are the eastern states where the phenomenon is seemingly reaching "American" levels now.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

GRÜNE-G/EFA: 27% (+9)
CDU/CSU-EPP: 26% (-2)
SPD-S&D: 12% (-5)
AfD-EFDD: 11% (-2)
FDP-ALDE: 8%
LINKE-LEFT: 7% (-1)

(Forsa)

That SPD result, incidentally, would be the worst since 1887.

[Beezer]

So are we expected to believe some AfD voters have gone to the Greens?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Aaaaaaargh... Crabby!!!

You preempted my by one minute...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So, who do you think will become the Green chancellery candidate?
They usually have two top candidates, one male and one female, which actually doesn't make any sense.
When they nominate a candidate via primary, they will have to settle for one single party member.
Who do you think they will decide upon? Probably upon this guy?