🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[CumbrianLefty]

At present the SPD arguably has no real reason to exist.

It needs to rediscover one.

[Middle-aged Europe]

If the Greens are surging, then they will hold this seat on the back of Linke/Spd voters.

The Greens will definitely win the second vote in that district, but I'm not sure about the first vote, especially since Bayram isn't even famous at all, unlike Somuncu.

You seriously believe that the Greens (whoever they are running) could actually lose Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg when they are polling at 27% nationally, after they had won that direct seat with only 9% of national vote in 2017??? Because Somuncu is (sort of) "famous"?

Sorry, but you need to start to understand elections. The only ones who could theoretically take that direct seat from the Greens are the Left. But not with the Greens polling at 27%. The Left would have a shot with the Greens polling at 7-9% nationally.

This year's European Election results in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg looked like this:

Greens 40.3%
Left 15.9%
SPD 10.5%
Die PARTEI 8.9%
CDU 5.7%
AfD 4.0%
DiEM25 2.7%
FDP 2.6%

[Velasco]

I have good memories of Friedrichsain when I visited Berlin and I like the voting patterns of that neighbourhood. It's amazing when you cross Oberbaum bridge and consider that Kreuzberg was once in another country

[President Johnson]

Looks like SPD members want two leaders instead of one (so called Doppelspitze). I'm opposed to changing the party statutes on this. It's another obsession by the far-left with identity politics for "gender equality". I don't care whether the leader is male or female. He or she needs to competent and reverse the party's downfall (if that is still possible). This is not something that cures the party's ills and yet they're arguing about such nonsense.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I have good memories of Friedrichsain when I visited Berlin and I like the voting patterns of that neighbourhood. It's amazing when you cross Oberbaum bridge and consider that Kreuzberg was once in another country.

I've always been wondering what US-American congressional district German constituency No. 83 is most similar to.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Michael Roth and Christina Kampmann announced that they will jointly fight for leadership of SPD.

[President Johnson]

New ARD poll from Tagesschau



Hopefully CDU pays the price for pushing von der Leyen through in the backrooms.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

New ARD poll from Tagesschau



Hopefully CDU pays the price for pushing von der Leyen through in the backrooms.

It's really interesting to see how Uschi is much more popular beyond the German borders than within. 😂
And it's even more ironic to realize that Uschi will perish where she was born. 😁

By the way, now that Uschi and Gerste are about to be deported to Brussels and Strasbourg, respectively, who do you think will become their successors in their respective ministry?

[Former President tack50]

New ARD poll from Tagesschau



Hopefully CDU pays the price for pushing von der Leyen through in the backrooms.

It's really interesting to see how Uschi is much more popular beyond the German borders than within. 😂
And it's even more ironic to realize that Uschi will perish where she was born. 😁

By the way, now that Uschi and Gerste are about to be deported to Brussels and Strasbourg, respectively, who do you think will become their successors in their respective ministry?

When Germany sends its people, they are not sending their best I see

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

When Germany sends its people, they are not sending their best I see

Oh yes, it has been a running gag and a meme for a long time that the German political establishment uses Brussels as a trash dump in order to dispose of "over-the-hill" politicians. Exactly ten years ago, the decision by the newly-election black-yellow federal government to nominate then-Governor of Baden-Württemberg Günther Oettinger as European Commissioner for Energy met with severe criticism and savage parodies, especially as he couldn't speak a word of English. 🤣

[pilskonzept]

"Hast du einen Opa, schick ihn nach Europa."

Sending our grandmothers in addition to the grandfathers can be counted as progress of sorts.

[windjammer]

Hades, who are you supporting in Germany? Favorite coalition?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

When Germany sends its people, they are not sending their best I see

Hey, why did you delete your question for me?
To answer it: i'm currently strongly in favor of the Swiss model...

[CumbrianLefty]

Any chance the SPD, in their annoyance about vdL, try to end the GroKo?

[urutzizu]

Any chance the SPD, in their annoyance about vdL, try to end the GroKo?

No. Staying in the Coalition is shooting themselves in the foot. Going out would be shooting themselves in the face. In polls they are at 13%. No way they are going to run into a snap election without a leadership and these poll numbers over v.d.L.

Once the eastern State elections are over (where the SPD is on course for single digits twice), and the slowing economy and reduced tax income income kick in, which will kill the Minimum Pension proposals as well as the other SPD attempts to buy back their voters, then maybe. But poll numbers will be down further by then, making the catch-22 situation even worse for them.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So, Environment Minister Svenja Schulze (or whatever her name is) is planning on a CO₂ tax (presumably 20 €/t !!!), including a "climate premium", i.e. an upward redistribution from the poor to the rich, and from the rural areas to the urban areas. 😡
The SPD hasn't heard the shot and they don't have all pickets on the fence anymore. 🤬

[Former President tack50]

So, Environment Minister Svenja Schulze (or whatever her name is) is planning on a CO₂ tax (presumably 20 €/t !!!), including a "climate premium", i.e. an upward redistribution from the poor to the rich, and from the rural areas to the urban areas. 😡
The SPD hasn't heard the shot and they don't have all pickets on the fence anymore. 🤬

Why would a carbon tax be a tax on the poor to give the money to the rich? (especially with a climate premium). I imagine most big pollutants would be large businesses and rich people?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So, Environment Minister Svenja Schulze (or whatever her name is) is planning on a CO₂ tax (presumably 20 €/t !!!), including a "climate premium", i.e. an upward redistribution from the poor to the rich, and from the rural areas to the urban areas. 😡
The SPD hasn't heard the shot and they don't have all pickets on the fence anymore. 🤬

Why would a carbon tax be a tax on the poor to give the money to the rich? (especially with a climate premium). I imagine most big pollutants would be large businesses and rich people?

Because the people who can afford modern heating furnaces, facade insulation, and e-cars are the wealthier people. Furthermore, most people can't afford to live in the big cities anymore thanks to gentrification; they will be punished for commuting long distances, and they won't benefit from the expansion of the short-range public transportation.

[parochial boy]

One of the more interesting policies that has been mooted is the idea of taxing investments in carbon emitting products, rather than taxing the consumption of them.

That way you would hopefully tax the real responsible people, as opposed to the end user - and also hopefully redirect investment away from high polluting products and towards things that would make it cheaper and easier to use cleaner energy

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

One of the more interesting policies that has been mooted is the idea of taxing investments in carbon emitting products, rather than taxing the consumption of them.

That way you would hopefully tax the real responsible people, as opposed to the end user - and also hopefully redirect investment away from high polluting products and towards things that would make it cheaper and easier to use cleaner energy

One very popular thing the finance minister could do is taxing kerosene for domestic flights, which would be allowed according to the EC energy tax directive and the Chicago Convention. It's truly perverse that a short-haul flight from Hamburg to Munich is cheaper than a rail journey.

[urutzizu]

So, Environment Minister Svenja Schulze (or whatever her name is) is planning on a CO₂ tax (presumably 20 €/t !!!), including a "climate premium", i.e. an upward redistribution from the poor to the rich, and from the rural areas to the urban areas. 😡
The SPD hasn't heard the shot and they don't have all pickets on the fence anymore. 🤬

Why would a carbon tax be a tax on the poor to give the money to the rich? (especially with a climate premium). I imagine most big pollutants would be large businesses and rich people?

The proposal is still in its infancy but basically this is a non-progressive tax as Hades has rightly pointed out, and i have some suspicions as to why (that i will get into later). I should add that i am not at all against a carbon tax in principle, provided it is progressive.

So, in basic, what is proposed is revenue neutral tax, with the price for carbon increasing year by year. All revenue made by the proposal is to be redistributed again to the taxpayer through a "climate premium". This is very similar to the Carbon Tax in Canada for instance, also a revenue neutral tax, where all the revenue is redistributed through rebates.

There is however a very big difference to the model in Canada. In Canada these rebates go on a per capita basis back to the people, with everyone getting a equal sum, with extra rebates for rural and northern communities, small businesses, schools, hospitals and local governments.  
This planned tax however is very different. The "climate premium" is planned to go to those who  live "ecologically friendly", for example by buying a electric car or a well insulated house. Obviously the people who can afford such things are the urban upper middle class, while those that cannot afford to upgrade their car or house, i.e . the poorer and working classes would be taxed fully and get nothing. This is handouts for the rich. This is progressive politics for idiots.

So now one might ask: "Oh urutzizu, why in Gods name is the SPD, the party of the working class, proposing this, if this proposal is so terrible for the poorer people?"
And you would be right to ask this. Now besides the SPD being a bunch of traitors to the working class, of course, there is another reason. You see the SPD is in crisis right now, and it desperately needs to win back voters. And you know which party has profited most from the decline from the SPD? The Greens. And you know which party has one of the most wealthy, white upper middle class voting base of them all? Which Parties voters can afford and like to buy nice Electric cars and expensive Houses? Thats Right! The Greens. What a coincidence!

Remember when our hero of the Working class, Emmanuel Macron, proposed Fuel Taxes in the name of Environmentalism, that would hit the poorest most, that led the people to riot in the streets? This is exactly what is happening in Germany, except that Germans wont riot, because we are a lazy, comfortable people.

None of this wont save the SPD of course, it will just kill that corpse of a party even more, as it will lose the last crumbs of support is still has among the working classes.

[rob in cal]

  Urutzizu, this is a fascinating development and it totally makes sense.  As the parties of the left become more and more made up of wealthier voters, at a certain point they will attempt to represent their direct economic intrests, and if it can dovetail with an environmental agenda, and also maybe stick it to those unwashed, anti EU xenophopic types so much the better.
  In the US I think one issue where we see this happening might have been the tax cut/tax reform passed in 2017, where it was the Democrats who were actually defending their upper middle class and upper class constituents who saw a huge de facto tax increase in the form of the state and local tax deduction limitation. Dems actually opposed this part of the tax reform, though some of that opposition was probably also because it discourages new state and local taxes and gives wealthy voters a direct reason to oppose such taxes.

[parochial boy]

I would really hesitate to try and identify any sort of trend here. For every SPD or PVDA that may be embracing the perceived "economic interests" of their middle class electorates (to the degree it is even intentional, rather than incompetent) - there is a PSOE, Labour or SPS that is very much not doing so.

Very much the problem is, as has been pointed out, most European societies can no longer be meaningfully divided into "middle" and "working" class voter blocks. The structure and dynamics of class are far too complex and enmeshed with other forms of social identity for that to work any more.

[urutzizu]

Hmm, yes in Germany we dont have the traditional centrist social liberal party since 1983, so the greens have taken a lot of the white upper middle class electorate, that might vote GLP, Lib Dems, REM, or Cs (well, well..) in other countries. Their policies and personell have turned towards the centre on issues of economics because of this, but they have still retained much of their original left-wing electorate (Students, Ethnic minorities...). Despite my dislike for the Party, i must say i admire that they have been able to do this. Now this is easier since they are in opposition where they can concentrate of what unites them, environmentalism, this will become very difficult if they are in Government (especially Jamaica), when they will have to defend big tax cuts for high incomes and corporations. This could split the party, like in Switzerland.
Then again many predicted that they would split over the Nato Bombing Yugoslavia in 1999, and they supported and survived that, despite their left wing fraction being extremely pacifist.


In other news the Carbon Tax likely wont happen after Peter Altmeier (CDU), rubbished it in a interview with the Bild. Just shows the pathetic state the federal government is in, where the Government ministers trash each others projects in front of the Public, just days after they were announced. This almost feels like Britain.

[President Johnson]

Any chance the SPD, in their annoyance about vdL, try to end the GroKo?

No, because they are cowards. We will pay the price in 2021 at latest. The CDU may get nervous if they collapse in the upcoming Eastern states elections.