🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[palandio]

There are new allegations of hidden financing of the AfD by Swiss-based German multi-billionaire August von Finck Jr. who in the past has already given money to the short lived anti-Euro League of Free Citizens (BFB) and later CSU and then FDP (the hotel tax scandal).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_von_Finck_Jr.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/afd-unterstuetzung-die-spur-zu-milliardaer-august-von-finck-a-1240069.html

[President Johnson]

There are new allegations of hidden financing of the AfD by Swiss-based German multi-billionaire August von Finck Jr. who in the past has already given money to the short lived anti-Euro League of Free Citizens (BFB) and later CSU and then FDP (the hotel tax scandal).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_von_Finck_Jr.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/afd-unterstuetzung-die-spur-zu-milliardaer-august-von-finck-a-1240069.html

I hope this plus Merz' election as CDU leader sinks them.

[Tender Branson]

When things go from bad to worse:

Yesterday, the Merkel plane had a technical problem while Vice-Chancellor Scholz‘s home was vandalized by unknown people.

Symptomatic of Germany‘s problems right now ...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

[Tender Branson]

Looks like the Green surge is over for now.

The prospect of Merkel leaving and a new CDU leadership soon will mean some new Green voters (= ex-CDU voters) will come back soon.

[President Johnson]

Looks like the Green surge is over for now.

The prospect of Merkel leaving and a new CDU leadership soon will mean some new Green voters (= ex-CDU voters) will come back soon.

Depends on who wins. Friedrich Merz, who I hope succeeds, would have a bigger impact than AKK I think.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Why should anyone go from Greens to CDU for Friedrich Merz, of all people?

[Lord Halifax]

Why should anyone go from Greens to CDU for Friedrich Merz, of all people?

I think he meant that "new" Green voters that have returned to CDU (because they are ex-CDU) will come back to the Greens if Merz wins.

[Vosem]

Is Merz considered to be favored? Virtually all the discourse that I've seen just assumes that Merz would be the next leader, even though it seems to me like an internal election in a deeply establishmentarian party like the CDU (as opposed to an Anglophone type of primary) should give a victory to the establishment candidate, who would be AKK.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Is Merz considered to be favored? Virtually all the discourse that I've seen just assumes that Merz would be the next leader, even though it seems to me like an internal election in a deeply establishmentarian party like the CDU (as opposed to an Anglophone type of primary) should give a victory to the establishment candidate, who would be AKK.

No, AKK is clearly favored.
I compiled a list of all latest polls about the CDU chairmanship election in the respective thread:

[President Johnson]

Why should anyone go from Greens to CDU for Friedrich Merz, of all people?

I think he meant that "new" Green voters that have returned to CDU (because they are ex-CDU) will come back to the Greens if Merz wins.

Yes, that's what I meant. But Merz may be able to take away votes from the AfD. This is why I want him to win plus that he is something new. AKK is boring and another version of Merkel. We've had enough of this.

[palandio]

Is Merz considered to be favored? Virtually all the discourse that I've seen just assumes that Merz would be the next leader, even though it seems to me like an internal election in a deeply establishmentarian party like the CDU (as opposed to an Anglophone type of primary) should give a victory to the establishment candidate, who would be AKK.

No, AKK is clearly favored.
I compiled a list of all latest polls about the CDU chairmanship election in the respective thread:

Ok, I'll let you respond to yourself:

[...] Therefore polls of the general popoulation or the CDU-members do not really give any prediction about who is going to win in the end, [...]

Hm, I thought that has long been clarified.
[...]

Do you understand what some of us consider the problem? A list of all the latest polls is only meaningful to a certain degree when they're polling CDU voters and not delegates. Comprende?

[Aurelio21]

Is Merz considered to be favored? Virtually all the discourse that I've seen just assumes that Merz would be the next leader, even though it seems to me like an internal election in a deeply establishmentarian party like the CDU (as opposed to an Anglophone type of primary) should give a victory to the establishment candidate, who would be AKK.

No, AKK is clearly favored.
I compiled a list of all latest polls about the CDU chairmanship election in the respective thread:

I do not think so: https://jungefreiheit.de/politik/deutschland/2018/die-basis-hat-sich-entschieden/

If AKK prevails, she will only prevail because of Mrs Merkel's support and the fact that she is the secretary General of the CDU and thus is able to control information about who is a delegate and who not.

Mr Merz is programmatically the most popular candidate, as my relatives which are CDU members can confirm. Unlike AKK, he has already proven to be a keen strategician:
-Weakening the AfD by courting the former CDU voters
- Weakening the Free Democrats (the second voter target) He proposed a total overhaul of the byzantine complicted tax laws (tax return on a beermat)
- To hell with Angela Merkel's triangulation by emulating the social democrats and green Party
- Unlike all other contenders, he is not flip-flopping as these have always been his positions on the issues and thus very convincing


The point is: what can A Merkel do to bribe convince the NRW CDU delegates( i e PM Laschet). Maybe a deal: AKK chair of the CDU,  Mr Laschet(who did not have the support of his iwn state Party for the CDU chair election) as Chancellor-heir-presumptive and Mr Spahn as secretary general?


Keep in mind that the arguably more conservative CSU is a separate party. AKK has a slight advantage as she can offer more pork at this very moment. If there would be a primary (god forbid this -  this is the CDU!), Mr Merz would win by 2/3 and AKK would be overtaken by Mr Spahn.

PS: I would take the polls with a grain of salt. They are published in Merkel-allied newspapers like "Handelsblatt" and outlets of the Springer group and thus generating AKK support.

[rob in cal]

   I've read a few articles that the current government is proposing an immigration reform law that would streamline existing regulations to ease the entry of skilled workers into Germany. Whats the status of that right now, and how might it effect further support for the AFD vs CDU?

[Aurelio21]

@rob: There are guidelines which have been discussed within the ministries and a draft bill exists. According to my assessment, this would be catastrophical as immigrants can just now get into Germany under the pretense of searching a job (they do not necessarily need a contract!!) instead of the pretense of seeking asylum:

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/fachkraefte-zuzug-kritik-aus-union-und-fdp-am-entwurf-fuer-das-geplante-einwanderungsgesetz/23632042.html?ticket=ST-3608926-S0b9ZmwbE3XagtIqxTVh-ap2

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The news coverage of the fight for the chairmanship really seems to help the CDU and Merkel:



Favorability ratings:

[TheSaint250]

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has been elected. From what I can tell through Wikipedia, she's a social conservative and economic centrist (even wanting to reverse the tax cuts of the Schroeder government). I wonder if this will help the CDU gain more centrist- and left-leaning voters while also resulting in losing many to the FDP and AfD.

[Oryxslayer]

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has been elected. From what I can tell through Wikipedia, she's a social conservative and economic centrist (even wanting to reverse the tax cuts of the Schroeder government). I wonder if this will help the CDU gain more centrist- and left-leaning voters while also resulting in losing many to the FDP and AfD.

The best way to think of AKK is Merkels 'mini-me' from Austin Powers. Which in my opinion is a good thing, but in some other right wingers eyes is even worse since AKK is even more friendly to migrants. In my eyes this is the CDU fully embracing it's roll as a centrist behemoth rather then the right party on a left-right spectrum.

[Beezer]

A "behemoth" that polls below 30 percent? Merkel's one lasting legacy will be the establishment of a party to the right of the CDU/CSU. This vote means the AfD is here to stay.

[Oryxslayer]

A "behemoth" that polls below 30 percent? Merkel's one lasting legacy will be the establishment of a party to the right of the CDU/CSU. This vote means the AfD is here to stay.

Trendlines are not permanent nor consistent. Yes the AfD is here to stay, but once the Green surge dissapates, the CDU will once again be the only German party above 25%. That's what I mean by behemoth, no party can enter govt eithout the CDU.

[Lord Halifax]

A "behemoth" that polls below 30 percent?

For a centrist party that is impressive. It means no one can govern without you.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The best way to think of AKK is Merkels 'mini-me' from Austin Powers.

Incidentally, the German media gave her the moniker "Mini-Merkel".

[Diouf]

A "behemoth" that polls below 30 percent? Merkel's one lasting legacy will be the establishment of a party to the right of the CDU/CSU. This vote means the AfD is here to stay.

Probably overstating the influence of both Merkel and the AKK election quite a bit. The establishment of a party to the right of CDU/CSU would likely have taken place anyway as the German political system would become normalized. It's hard to see a CDU/CSU leader so right-wing that this would not have happened, particularly with the German constitution making it hard to make tough immigration/refugee policies. And yes AfD will stay anyway; I don't see a big difference in their destiny with Merz. You can't even rule out that it would have the opposite effect with Merz keeping the topic higher on the agenda, while being unable to do much about it because of constitutional/legal, intra-party and intra-coalition blocks.

[Beezer]

In terms of the "normalization" of Germany's party system, I see no reason to dismiss Merkel's relevance in the rise of the AfD - which should be regarded as her most important legacy. Merkel has created a party completely devoid of any sort of coherent ideology and of course committed a cardinal error in August of 2015. That has played a huge role in the rise of the AfD. Of course her supporters are now rewriting the CDU's history in a 1984-like manner, claiming that the CDU has always been a party of the center and not a conservative party at all (that's the sound of Adenauer spinning in his grave you are hearing). It wouldn't have required a right-wing CDU leader to prevent the rise of the AfD, just someone with any sort of discernible center-right ideological preferences. It's quite telling that some of the most glowing tributes to Merkel's time in office have come from the left.

And AKK subscribes to the interpretation of the CDU as a party that essentially does anything to stay in power as well.

[Cassius]

If the CDU manage to remain in power for a further four years after 2021 at the helm of yet another coalition they will essentially be DC Deutschland sans the correntes and the corruption.