🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Beezer]

Kramp-Karrenbauer: More or less like Merkel
Spahn: 2015 was a mistake and more needs to be done to avoid a repeat
Merz: Well, he calls for a more distinctive CDU profile which I guess means moving to the right on immigration, "Multikulti" etc.

[Beezer]

A "behemoth" that polls below 30 percent? Merkel's one lasting legacy will be the establishment of a party to the right of the CDU/CSU. This vote means the AfD is here to stay.

[Beezer]

In terms of the "normalization" of Germany's party system, I see no reason to dismiss Merkel's relevance in the rise of the AfD - which should be regarded as her most important legacy. Merkel has created a party completely devoid of any sort of coherent ideology and of course committed a cardinal error in August of 2015. That has played a huge role in the rise of the AfD. Of course her supporters are now rewriting the CDU's history in a 1984-like manner, claiming that the CDU has always been a party of the center and not a conservative party at all (that's the sound of Adenauer spinning in his grave you are hearing). It wouldn't have required a right-wing CDU leader to prevent the rise of the AfD, just someone with any sort of discernible center-right ideological preferences. It's quite telling that some of the most glowing tributes to Merkel's time in office have come from the left.

And AKK subscribes to the interpretation of the CDU as a party that essentially does anything to stay in power as well.

[Beezer]

It is worth remembering of course that the migrant crisis brought the AfD back from the dead. It was polling at around 3-4 percent in the summer of 2015. But yeah, it does show that there are known unknowns and unknown unknowns and the latter can, I suppose, always play a key role in altering the composition of a party system.

[Beezer]

I really have a hard time believing anyone who would vote for the AfD at the federal level would switch to another party in the EP elections because of their European platform. All of this also goes against everything we know with regards to European elections (second order elections and such). I really have no way of understanding how this weaker result in the Euro polls comes about.

[Beezer]

Interesting to see the transformation of the AfD into a party of the east.

2014 vs 2019




Were there local elections in Hesse 5 years ago? And what caused the demise of the party in southern Bavaria?

[Beezer]

So are we expected to believe some AfD voters have gone to the Greens?

[Beezer]

Stellar choice by Merkel. Once again she has shown everyone what a political genius she is.

[Beezer]

My guess is that after the east German elections we will see the first SPD single digit polls.

[Beezer]

The party is dead, no matter who runs it. It has completely outlived its usefulness. I think the only person that could salvage parts of the SPD would be a social populist figure who sort of does an about-face on migration, arguing that open borders wreak havoc on the wages of the working class. But that's never gonna happen. Therefore the SPD has been relegated to being a copy of the Greens with less of a hipster appeal.