🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[President Johnson]

Thanks for the new thread, that was overdue.

On th new Forsa poll: I start to believe Chancellor Habeck may happen one day if the SPD doesn't get their sh!t together soon.

[President Johnson]

It's more likely that Maaßen runs for AfD chairman. (Yes, I know he's still a CDU member.)

Mut gut feeling says he won't remain a CDU member much longer...

Maybe he will but become some form of Erika Steinbach.

[President Johnson]

It's more likely that Maaßen runs for AfD chairman. (Yes, I know he's still a CDU member.)

Mut gut feeling says he won't remain a CDU member much longer...

Maybe he will but become some form of Erika Steinbach.

Just an official supporter of the AfD, but not a member?

Yeah, at least inffocial supporter. However, it's a disgrace he just can retire at this age. He should earn his living rather than taking taxpayer money. Someone who gets fired for misbeavior shouldn't be entitled for pensions. But I'm glad he's gone.

[President Johnson]

There are new allegations of hidden financing of the AfD by Swiss-based German multi-billionaire August von Finck Jr. who in the past has already given money to the short lived anti-Euro League of Free Citizens (BFB) and later CSU and then FDP (the hotel tax scandal).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_von_Finck_Jr.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/afd-unterstuetzung-die-spur-zu-milliardaer-august-von-finck-a-1240069.html

I hope this plus Merz' election as CDU leader sinks them.

[President Johnson]

Looks like the Green surge is over for now.

The prospect of Merkel leaving and a new CDU leadership soon will mean some new Green voters (= ex-CDU voters) will come back soon.

Depends on who wins. Friedrich Merz, who I hope succeeds, would have a bigger impact than AKK I think.

[President Johnson]

Why should anyone go from Greens to CDU for Friedrich Merz, of all people?

I think he meant that "new" Green voters that have returned to CDU (because they are ex-CDU) will come back to the Greens if Merz wins.

Yes, that's what I meant. But Merz may be able to take away votes from the AfD. This is why I want him to win plus that he is something new. AKK is boring and another version of Merkel. We've had enough of this.

[President Johnson]

Gerhard Schröder gave a big newspaper interview in which he declared Andrea Nahles incompetent and all but said that Sigmar Gabriel should return to the helm. That's all nonsense though IMO. As a general rule, incumbent SPD chairs are always seen as incompetent with a lot people simultanously having the opinion that person X would of course be much, much better. If Gabriel were really to return it would take about three to six months until people start to say how much he sucks and that Nahles was much better and/or Olaf Scholz would be much better. In addition, Gabriel was Schröder's protege at one point and therefore he naturally supports him.

Schröder is not wrong. Andrea Nahles is an ineffective leader who is not liked by the public and certainly not somebody who will ever come close to the chancellorship. Sigmar Gabriel is a master politican and very smart guy. As member of this party, I'd love to have him back. He's just never been threated fairly by his party and parts of the media. Especially during his time as Minister of Economics.

[President Johnson]

Gerhard Schröder gave a big newspaper interview in which he declared Andrea Nahles incompetent and all but said that Sigmar Gabriel should return to the helm. That's all nonsense though IMO. As a general rule, incumbent SPD chairs are always seen as incompetent with a lot people simultanously having the opinion that person X would of course be much, much better. If Gabriel were really to return it would take about three to six months until people start to say how much he sucks and that Nahles was much better and/or Olaf Scholz would be much better. In addition, Gabriel was Schröder's protege at one point and therefore he naturally supports him.

Schröder is not wrong. Andrea Nahles is an ineffective leader who is not liked by the public and certainly not somebody who will ever come close to the chancellorship. Sigmar Gabriel is a master politican and very smart guy. As member of this party, I'd love to have him back. He's just never been threated fairly by his party and parts of the media. Especially during his time as Minister of Economics.

Sigmar Gabriel changes his mind every few seconds. Someone that erratic shouldn't lead the SPD, I would certainly consider leaving the party if he becomes chairman or especially if he becomes candidate for chancellor.

He's not erratic, he's authentic and someone who understands how common people think. I've met him three times and talked to him twice. He's a good person and a skillful politician. Siggi would make an excellent chancellor.

[President Johnson]

Good the SPD bounces back, but 19% is still a ridiculously low number for such the party. The potential is much higher, but we have to play the right cards with the right personell.

[President Johnson]

I really have a hard time believing anyone who would vote for the AfD at the federal level would switch to another party in the EP elections because of their European platform. All of this also goes against everything we know with regards to European elections (second order elections and such). I really have no way of understanding how this weaker result in the Euro polls comes about.

Different turnout/interest patterns.

History in Austria shows that FPÖ-voters are much more likely to turn out for national elections than for EU elections, because far-right voters don't really care about the EU or think everything is rotten in the EU, which is why many stay at home.

Supporters of other parties are more likely to turn out, so this creates the 2-3% differences in EU elections compared with national elections.

I think this might be different this time in various countries of the EU and poses a threat to the stability of the European parliament. The AfD will be in double digits despite their recent scandals over donations and other stuff. The right feels emboldened and wants to undermine the EU by voting for AfD/FPÖ or Front National.

[President Johnson]

Poll for the upcoming European election. Keep in mind that there is no 5% threshold so that minor parties were included also.

16% for the SPD is disgusting. This would be 11% less than in 2014 (which improved significantly from 2009 and was part of the reason Martin Schulz was selected as chancellor candidate in 2017).

[President Johnson]

New poll for the federal election:



Man, I hate the multi-party system, when none is polling above 30%. Too many parties!

[President Johnson]

New poll for the federal election:



Man, I hate the multi-party system, when none is polling above 30%. Too many parties!

Wow, the Right lead over Left has been reduced to 1 (48-47)

Yes but the greens have moved so hard to the centre that they can hardly be described as "left". A red-red-green coalition is nothing but a wet dream as nobody outside the Jusos and die linke wants it, the only possible constellations are red-black and black-yellow-green.
Indeed the Greens have become so bürgerlich (bourgeois) that their Voters are the second richest behind the FDP!

Not even among the Jusos everyone would like a red-red-green coalition. More than half in my county are opposed to that, including myself, even though we're a more right/center-leaning constituency compared to the rest of the party.

[President Johnson]

Why is Afd rising again?

It's not rising after all, more within their range I guess. If anything, the campaign finance scandal as been out of the news for some time. I just don't get why it doesn't sink them. It's like Trump, they have a stable base of supporters who would never abandon them.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/schmarmelaDE/status/1138765303003918336

LOL, the current left party only exists because this s-head betrayed the SPD.

[President Johnson]

New Forsa national poll, released June 15: http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm

Greens: 27%
Union (CDU/CSU): 24%
AfD: 13%
SPD: 11% (LOL)
FDP: 9%
Left: 8%
Other: 8%

Greens are at 51% among students.

59% regret the downfall of the SPD (including 70% of Green supporters and 66% of CDU supporters), while 36% don't care.


Yeah, it seems as the party I'm still a member of is done.

[President Johnson]

In the March 1933 Reichstag election, the SPD received 18.25%.

The third - and to face the unvarnished truth: already the second grand coalition - was the SPD's casket nail.

Yeah, but it's a self inflicted wound, especially from the older members. They voted for the grand coalition. I voted in favor back in 2013, but against this time around.

[President Johnson]

Looks like SPD members want two leaders instead of one (so called Doppelspitze). I'm opposed to changing the party statutes on this. It's another obsession by the far-left with identity politics for "gender equality". I don't care whether the leader is male or female. He or she needs to competent and reverse the party's downfall (if that is still possible). This is not something that cures the party's ills and yet they're arguing about such nonsense.

[President Johnson]

New ARD poll from Tagesschau



Hopefully CDU pays the price for pushing von der Leyen through in the backrooms.

[President Johnson]

Any chance the SPD, in their annoyance about vdL, try to end the GroKo?

No, because they are cowards. We will pay the price in 2021 at latest. The CDU may get nervous if they collapse in the upcoming Eastern states elections.

[President Johnson]

Rumoured to be new defense minister (replacing VdL): Jens Spahn

Rumoured to be new health minister (replacing Spahn): Annette Widmann-Mauz, Commissioner for Migration and Integration

How absurd is that please ?

AKK is reported to become Uschi's successor.

LOL, she is a laughingstock. Didn't she intend to focus on the party or is she trying the remain in a job after being forced to resign in the fall after the Eastern state elections?

Actually Peter Altmeier has to leave now because two CDU politicians from the little Saarland are now in the cabinet.

[President Johnson]

Rumoured to be new defense minister (replacing VdL): Jens Spahn

Rumoured to be new health minister (replacing Spahn): Annette Widmann-Mauz, Commissioner for Migration and Integration

How absurd is that please ?

AKK is reported to become Uschi's successor.

LOL, she is a laughingstock. Didn't she intend to focus on the party or is she trying the remain in a job after being forced to resign in the fall after the Eastern state elections?

Actually Peter Altmeier has to leave now because two CDU politicians from the little Saarland are now in the cabinet.

That is likely to become a possible scenario, with the Saarland supremacy in the cabinet being a useful subterfuge.
Haven't several employers' association just recently scolded Altmaier as the weakest minister in the cabinet and as miscast?

Yeah, he is considered a terrible pick for the job. It's another functionary who needed a job regardless of his credentials and background.

AKK as Defense minister is equally ridiculous since the entire ministry and Bundeswehr is a total mess. We need someone 100% focused on the job and not running a major political party in the meantime. In addition, she has no credentials on defense policy or whatsoever. Nonsense like such moves is what's turning people off, and rightfully so. The CDU (and SPD to a degree) has been way too long in power and actually needs to go back into the opposition. Germany needs a new beginning with a bold agenda. Sadly, the alternatives have little to offer as well.

[President Johnson]

Another candidate has jumped into the race for SPD leader. Robert Maier, businessman and vice president of the SPD economic forum, has decalred his candidacy. He's opposed to a further drift towards the left, wants to focus on digitization and innovation. He also wants to address immigration in a different fashion and it seems to be a tougher stance.

I didn't know him before, but it looks like he's the kind of guy I'm voting for in the membership election. I certainly like his approach to a number of issues and that he has a business background. But I have no idea how well he'd actually do, probably he won't win. Most of the other candidates aren't that exciting so far.

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/spd-vorsitz-maier-kandidatur-101.html

[President Johnson]

As I've said earlier, AKK is an abhorrent pick for defense. She has zero credentials in defense policy and now she is all of a sudden supposed fix the mess Fliten Uschi has left and got rewarded for with the presidency of the European commission? While at the same time effectively running the CDU (into the ground)? Give me a break. Maybe we should hire actual high ranking personell out of the military instead of political hacks? The same at commerce, I'd like to have someone with business experience there while a union leader at the labor ministry. And then all these political masterminds wonder why their poling numbers are so low? Maybe they should waste the millions of dollars on consultants telling them this instead of what kind of furniture military bases need?

[President Johnson]

As I've said earlier, AKK is an abhorrent pick for defense. She has zero credentials in defense policy and now she is all of a sudden supposed fix the mess Fliten Uschi has left and got rewarded for with the presidency of the European commission? While at the same time effectively running the CDU (into the ground)? Give me a break. Maybe we should hire actual high ranking personell out of the military instead of political hacks? The same at commerce, I'd like to have someone with business experience there while a union leader at the labor ministry. And then all these political masterminds wonder why their poling numbers are so low? Maybe they should waste the millions of dollars on consultants telling them this instead of what kind of furniture military bases need?

Oh, be glad that you don't live in Schleswig-Holstein; you will explode when you hear of our personnel...

Monika Heinold (Greens): finance minister since 2012. Occupation: kindergarten teacher
Anke Spoorendonk (SSW): justice minister from 2012 to 2017. Occupation: German and history teacher at a Danish school

We got this genius Winfried Hermann (Greens) as tranportation minister, who is easily the worst in the country. And our eductation minister is a joke as well.