🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Lechasseur]

 I think the healthiest long term development might be for the CSU and more rightwing elements of the CDU to merge, to create a truly center right political formation.

Agreed, hopefully that will happen as soon as possible. The CDU clearly can't be saved.

[Lechasseur]

A "behemoth" that polls below 30 percent? Merkel's one lasting legacy will be the establishment of a party to the right of the CDU/CSU. This vote means the AfD is here to stay.

Agreed

[Lechasseur]

In terms of the "normalization" of Germany's party system, I see no reason to dismiss Merkel's relevance in the rise of the AfD - which should be regarded as her most important legacy. Merkel has created a party completely devoid of any sort of coherent ideology and of course committed a cardinal error in August of 2015. That has played a huge role in the rise of the AfD. Of course her supporters are now rewriting the CDU's history in a 1984-like manner, claiming that the CDU has always been a party of the center and not a conservative party at all (that's the sound of Adenauer spinning in his grave you are hearing). It wouldn't have required a right-wing CDU leader to prevent the rise of the AfD, just someone with any sort of discernible center-right ideological preferences. It's quite telling that some of the most glowing tributes to Merkel's time in office have come from the left.

And AKK subscribes to the interpretation of the CDU as a party that essentially does anything to stay in power as well.

True. Just not letting in 1.5 million illegals would have been enough to prevent the rise of the AfD. They were polling at 3% in the summer of 2015 and would've followed the Pirate Party's path to irrelevancy.

I agree with both quotes

[Lechasseur]

I was reading on the European Politico website that the German government will most likely collapse this year and new elections will be held. Is there any truth to that?

[Lechasseur]

I was reading on the European Politico website that the German government will most likely collapse this year and new elections will be held. Is there any truth to that?

People were predicting earlier that if AKK didn't win there would be new elections to cement the legitimacy of a new CDU, but AKK won...

No, I read this yesterday, and it had nothing to do with AKK, it was about the SPD pulling out of the coalition due to their tanking poll numbers

[Lechasseur]

I was reading on the European Politico website that the German government will most likely collapse this year and new elections will be held. Is there any truth to that?

People were predicting earlier that if AKK didn't win there would be new elections to cement the legitimacy of a new CDU, but AKK won...

No, I read this yesterday, and it had nothing to do with AKK, it was about the SPD pulling out of the coalition due to their tanking poll numbers

It depends a lot on the state election in Bremen. If we lose it it will be very hard for the leadership of the SPD to keep us in the coalition.

And how likely is it that the SPD loses Bremen?

[Lechasseur]

A shame there isn't a German general discussion thread in the International Discussion board, but I found a very interesting article:

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-nato-russia-ukraine-crimea-west-defense-army-military/?fbclid=IwAR1sqHI5ZwoC_NLHQU060O_t9IdMipuGZx9Xwjv74vD4AcXlOcxqiiePN4k

[Lechasseur]

New poll for the federal election:



Man, I hate the multi-party system, when none is polling above 30%. Too many parties!

If nobody's polling above 30% it's simply because none of the parties are worthwhile. Even in 2013, the CDU/CSU had over 40% of the vote I believe, if they're in the 20s now it's because they alienated the right and basically turned into the SPD's right wing.

There just isn't much of a difference at all between the SPD and the CDU, and that's why they've bled so many votes in the last few years both to their right and to their left.

Afterwards what's interesting is the Greens seem to be replacing the SPD is the main left-wing party, but it's not the same type of left, it seems to be a much more bourgeois left wing party, which I think also says who votes for the left at this point.

And that's what I love about PR, you're not forced to hold your nose to the same degree as in FPTP systems (oftentimes you still do, but the parties will often have options closer to your real beliefs than in FPTP), and especially it allows you to punish parties much more easily than in FPTP. Two party systems aren't healthy imo and just lead to toxic polarization.

[Lechasseur]

Vice-Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz declined the offer of becoming chairman or faction leader.

I take it none of the major figures in the party want the poisoned chalice known as the SPD chairmanship?

[Lechasseur]

I'd actually like to see a return of Schulz, because he's obviously NOT WOKE and everyone who is WOKE is going to vote Green anyway these days.

How is Schulz not woke?

Mind you, this would have been part of Nahles' appeal as well if she hadn't done a 180 on GroKo - but leaving the coalition is only necessary, not sufficient.

Yeah, the SPD is toast, they're going to end up just like the French PS.

In both countries, going forward the main leftwing party will be the Green Party.

[Lechasseur]

How is Schulz not woke?

Have you ever seen him on TV?

Nope

[Lechasseur]

https://www.politico.eu/article/angela-merkel-coalition-majority-of-germans-favor-snap-election-survey/?fbclid=IwAR2PQFbYnx28ei0V8urxz69IZjYuL1aF5bIHxl26WCVan6U5jOQJZQgALME

Over half of all Germans want an end of the GroKo and new elections, according to the poll cited in this article.

[Lechasseur]

AKK as Defense minister is equally ridiculous since the entire ministry and Bundeswehr is a total mess. We need someone 100% focused on the job and not running a major political party in the meantime. In addition, she has no credentials on defense policy or whatsoever. Nonsense like such moves is what's turning people off, and rightfully so. The CDU (and SPD to a degree) has been way too long in power and actually needs to go back into the opposition. Germany needs a new beginning with a bold agenda. Sadly, the alternatives have little to offer as well.

Agreed

[Lechasseur]

I endorse or will vote for Olaf Scholz. He's a third-wayer and haas a ton of experience in public office. Hope he wins and makes the party great again. If Schwan and Stegner were elected, I'd quit the party.

If you quit the SPD who would you join?

[Lechasseur]

Anyway AKK must be finished at this point. No way in their right mind would the CDU nominate her.

Agreed

CDU made a mistake not to elect him in the first place.

Agreed

He would win a vote among all party members, though.

And agreed

[Lechasseur]

The Chairman of the Law Committee (Rechtsausschuss) of the Bundestag, Stefan Brandner has been ousted by members of all other parties except for the AfD itsself. It's the first time in Bundestag history this happened, following a number of very controversial statements the guy made. Of course, the pathetic AfD clowns are playing the victim now.

What kind of comments?

[Lechasseur]

Friedrich Merz just can't let it go. He just announced his candidacy for a Bundestag seat. The "problem": There is already an incumbent CDU politician, Patrick Sensburg, running for reelection in the district he seeks to represent. And Sensburg isn't just a backbencher. Furthermore, it's unclear what larger goal he has with the candidacy. It will definitely lead to a contested convention vote for the CDU candidacy in the district.

This comes after his "offer" to become Minister of Economics right after losing the CDU leadership to Armin Laschet in the current Merkel government, in which Peter Altmaier already holds the post. The ridiculous move back then was immediately rejected my Merkel and Laschet. The guy is a real trainwreck.

When was the leadership election? And what was the final result?

[Lechasseur]

A good example of why First Past the Post is a better system.

I really wouldn’t say that our cursed electoral system is an example for any other country, let alone Germany - their governments have been far more stable than ours over the last few years! (And that’s before you even consider the fairness/democratic aspect.)

Yeah despite its flaws, I still think PR's the best system

And I agree with you that Germany has generally had better and more stable governance than the UK

[Lechasseur]

Also, at this point I believe the SPD will win the election, which is crazy to think about given just a couple of months ago that looked impossible.

That being said, I think that's only possible because the CDU and the Greens nominated such poor Chancellor candidates.

I think had either the Greens nominated Habeck instead of Baerbock, or had the Union nominated Soder or Merz instead of Laschet (that being said, I think AKK would have done even worse than Laschet), the SPD would probably not be in a position to climb back from the hole they were in.

What the SPD has here is they're the one party that nominated a decent Chancellor candidate.

At anyrate, good luck to Scholz and the SPD.

[Lechasseur]

Also, at this point I believe the SPD will win the election, which is crazy to think about given just a couple of months ago that looked impossible.

That being said, I think that's only possible because the CDU and the Greens nominated such poor Chancellor candidates.

I think had either the Greens nominated Habeck instead of Baerbock, or had the Union nominated Soder or Merz instead of Laschet (that being said, I think AKK would have done even worse than Laschet), the SPD would probably not be in a position to climb back from the hole they were in.

What the SPD has here is they're the one party that nominated a decent Chancellor candidate.

At anyrate, good luck to Scholz and the SPD.

Wait, you're rooting for the SPD now? I thought you supported Les Republicains in France?

No, I'm rooting for CDU. I just wished SPD luck in the sense I think it's now or never for them.

But no I'm rooting for CDU. SPD would be my second choice though.

And no in France I'm no longer an LR supporter. I'm now independant and I'll probably back Macron as the lesser evil this time round. LR just seem like RN for rich people at this point.

[Lechasseur]

It appears we finally have CROSSOVER!

(where's that "Its Happening" gif)

Yep, Forsa poll:

Vote share %:

23% SPD (+2)
22% CDU/CSU (-1)
18% Grüne (-1)
12% FDP (nc)
10% AfD (nc)
  6% Linke (nc)
  9% Others (nc)

Poll conducted between 16 and 23 August 2021. Polled 2,504 voters.

THANK YOU ARMIN, VERY COOL

Lol

[Lechasseur]

They would need to win three direct mandates to be exempted.  They currently have five, four in Berlin and one in Leipzig, and the four in Berlin were won fairly comfortably last time.

Yes. The issue is that if they really were to drop under 5% (which still doesn't look likely!) they will have lost a huge chunk of their support from 2017 and there's little chance that this would not also show up in direct vote preferences in those or any other set of constituencies. It would be, at best, dicey.

If both CSU (5 % according to INSA) and Linke fall below 5 % but get saved by the three-district rule, this would be the first time in history that two parties below five percent (since creation of the federal threshold) still get seats (exempting SSW).

Btw, the Linke might still get troubles even if they got saved by their direct representatives. As far as I'm concerned, they wouldn't be allowed to form a parliamentary group with full rights ("Fraktion") but only a "Gruppe", which has less significance in the parliamentary process, especially when it comes to funding. Not 100% sure though.

How is the CSU falling below 5%? Aren't they quite dominant in Bavaria?

And what happens if they fall below 5%, as I'd imagine they'd still have a lot of MPs regardless thanks to the directly elected constituencies?

[Lechasseur]

AKK: Miss me yet?

Actually a good question whether she'd fare better than Laschet now. I might be biased towards "my" former Minister-President, but I'd say: yes.

If AKK had become Chancellor candidate, that would've meant that she could somehow rally CDU and CSU behind her candidacy. When she was General Secretary, the once strained relationship between CDU and CSU improved significantly, so I wouldn't be so sure that Söder would have let the whole nomination process escalate as he did with Laschet.

AKK also would've had more time to improve her poor standing in the polls, unlike Laschet whose time is running out rapidly. Under her leadership, CDU/CSU's absolute low were 24 % and Laschet managed to beat that.
I also think she would have had the advantage of being more likeable than Laschet, and I believe she's more self-reflected than he is (...which actually can be seen in her resignation).

Her performance as Defense Minister has actually been relatively solid compared to her predecessors (and to her CDU/CSU cabinet collagues), from what I have heard she genuinely cares about the Military and is quite popular among soldiers. Her reaction towards the whole situation in Afghanistan was received relatively well. But then again, who knows how it all would've played out if the situation happened and she were Chancellor candidate - That could've been a full make or break moment for her (damaged) reputation. There are no recent polls, but I believe her approval has at least somewhat recovered from her gaffe-prone tenure as CDU Leader.

But it seems like she is happy with her current position and would like to keep it. If CDU/CSU somehow leads the government again, I guess she'd be one of the few ministers to return to the Cabinet.

She could be the victim of an SPD victory in September, because depending on district results, it's possible she might not make it into the Bundestag - A truly tragic figure if that comes true, because I believe she genuinely tried. But politics is not a fair game.

She may well be doing better but she's still a weak candidate, I think she'd still end up losing just like Laschet, just maybe with a smaller margin

[Lechasseur]

Who are you referring to there?

[Lechasseur]

Ran across this:

Germany protests to Russia over pre-election cyberattacks

BERLIN (AP) — Germany has protested to Russia over attempts to steal data from lawmakers in what it suspects may have been preparation to spread disinformation before the upcoming German election, the Foreign Ministry in Berlin said Monday.

In mid-July, the head of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency said that since February his agency had seen activity focusing on phishing attempts on the private email accounts of federal and state lawmakers and their staff. But he said that very few of those attempts were successful, and in cases where they were successful it appeared little damage had been caused.

Germany’s concerns about Russian interference have extended to the activities of state-funded broadcaster RT, whose online-only German-language service has for years emphasized divisive issues such as migration and the restrictions imposed because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Curious what people, particularly Germans, think about it.

Who would Russia prefer to see win the election between the CDU, the SPD and the Greens?