🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

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Thanks for the new thread, that was overdue.

On th new Forsa poll: I start to believe Chancellor Habeck may happen one day if the SPD doesn't get their sh!t together soon.

I'd rather think a chancellor Özdemir would be more realistic.
Since the Greens always elect two top candidates (or should I say "chancellor candidate" Henceforth?), a Green win could eventuate in some cockfights as to who will become chancellor. That will become funny. Where's my popcorn? 😈🍿

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Kramp-Karrenbauer is rather conservative on issues like SSM and euthanasia so maybe your confusion comes from that, but I don't think many people care about those issues anymore and on the most important issues (immigration and probably still taxes/budget) she's not right-wing at all.

There is another topic (at least since last fall) that meets with disapproval among Germans:
It is forbidden for doctors to "advertise" (yes, that's the literal translation) abortions.
A female Gießen-based gynecologist named Kristina Hänel has been adjudged to a penalty in the amount of 6,000 € at first and second instancebecause she mentioned on her website that she also performs abortions at her office.
The appellate judge just some weeks ago approved the first-instance verdict, but he didn't approve of it; he insinuated that he hopes that the next instance, or eventually the Supreme Court is going to repeal the court decision.
AKK and Spahn nevertheless still support the ban on "advertising" abortions. 🤬

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Thanks for the new thread, that was overdue.

On th new Forsa poll: I start to believe Chancellor Habeck may happen one day if the SPD doesn't get their sh!t together soon.

I'd rather think a chancellor Özdemir would be more realistic.
Since the Greens always elect two top candidates (or should I say "chancellor candidate" Henceforth?), a Green win could eventuate in some cockfights as to who will become chancellor. That will become funny. Where's my popcorn? 😈🍿

Why not Kretschmann? He is the only Green politician with leadership experience, and probably lends legitimacy to the Federal Greens if he hops ship whenever the next election occurs. Though convincing him to hop on over probably requires positive polling.

One of the few things I love about the Greens is that they hold primaries for both party leaderships and top/chancellor candidacies. Kretschmann wouldn't win a federal primary since he is waaaaaay too conservative and susceptible to automotive lobbyists. The Baden-Württemberg Greens have nothing in common with the Greens from Berlin, Hamburg, Bremen or Frankfurt.

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President of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution Hans-Georg Massen throws a hissyfit at the “naive and leftist” coalition policies,
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics/outgoing-german-spy-chief-attacks-naive-left-reopens-coalition-row-idUSKCN1NA105

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If he runs for CDU chairman, how much support would he gather?

He wouldn't win, but he has the potential to come in third place.

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It's more likely that Maaßen runs for AfD chairman. (Yes, I know he's still a CDU member.)

Mut gut feeling says he won't remain a CDU member much longer...

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It's more likely that Maaßen runs for AfD chairman. (Yes, I know he's still a CDU member.)

Mut gut feeling says he won't remain a CDU member much longer...

Maybe he will but become some form of Erika Steinbach.

Just an official supporter of the AfD, but not a member?

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So are sleeper agents a common thing in German parties, or is polarization slow enough to cause the bleeding to have some leftovers?

Yes, it happens quite often. The most famous sleeper agent is probably former SPD Wolfgang Clement (NRW Governor from 1998 till 2002, Economy and Labor Minister from 2002 till 2005), who even called upon the Hessians in 2008 to not vote SPD in the Hesse state election. The party leaders tried to get rid off him, but the SPD arbitral tribunal declined that request. Clement later left the SPD and joined the FDP, which he ought to have done like 10 years earlier.

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Why have the Greens been surging recently?

The voters have been suffering from suffering from fatigue of the "grand" coalition, the very hot and arid summer, plus the dieselgate scandal, where the government rallies behind Volkswagen, which has been pulling the consumers' legs.

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Why have the Greens been surging recently?

The voters have been suffering from suffering from fatigue of the "grand" coalition, the very hot and arid summer, plus the dieselgate scandal, where the government rallies behind Volkswagen, which has been pulling the consumers' legs.

+ the Hambach Forest occupation movement, which was also helping their cause.

https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-hambach-forest-a-battlefield-for-the-planets-future/a-45840465

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-thousands-protest-to-save-hambach-forest/a-46060826

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/protesters-in-germany-block-tracks-to-disputed-coal-mine/2018/10/27/213adc1a-d9e9-11e8-8384-bcc5492fef49_story.html

Ironically, the clearing of the forest was approved by the last red-green state government. A smart move by the Green party leadership. It's like stealing someone's wallet, giving it back to them and then collection the finder's reward. 🙌🏻👏🏻🤙🏻

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It's being reported that Seehofer is about to step down as CSU chairman.

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Is Merz considered to be favored? Virtually all the discourse that I've seen just assumes that Merz would be the next leader, even though it seems to me like an internal election in a deeply establishmentarian party like the CDU (as opposed to an Anglophone type of primary) should give a victory to the establishment candidate, who would be AKK.

No, AKK is clearly favored.
I compiled a list of all latest polls about the CDU chairmanship election in the respective thread:

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The news coverage of the fight for the chairmanship really seems to help the CDU and Merkel:



Favorability ratings:

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The best way to think of AKK is Merkels 'mini-me' from Austin Powers.

Incidentally, the German media gave her the moniker "Mini-Merkel".

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Wednesday 6th March 2019

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Does nobody wanna know why I posted that date?

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Does nobody wanna know why I posted that date?

I just assumed election 2019 rumors.

That's the date when Merkel is likely to propose a vote of confidence.
If the confidence eludes her, the Federal President can thus dissolve the Bundestag within 21 days in order to call new general elections (but he isn't obliged to).
Snap elections have to be held on the last Sunday within 60 days after the dissolution of the parliament.
If Merkel proposes the vote of confidence on March 6, 2019, snap elections would consequently be held on May 26, hance at the same time as the European election, the Bremen state election and local elections in nine states.

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And how likely is it that the SPD loses Bremen?

It's currently a tie between SPD and CDU.

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Poll for the upcoming European election. Keep in mind that there is no 5% threshold so that minor parties were included also.

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Btw, the candidates' list of DIE PARTEI for the upcoming EP elections consts of the following people. With the exception of the two top spots - both of which are well-known comedians, one of them already a sitting MEP - most of the people were selected due to their surnames.

1. Martin Sonneborn
2. Nico Semsrott
3. Lisa Bombe ("bomb")
4. Bennet Krieg ("war")
5. Kevin Göbbels
6. Tobias Speer
7. Elisabeth S. Bormann
8. Dietrich F. Eichmann
9. Andreas Keitel
10. Fabian M. Heß
11. Frauke Heß-Tchokam ("artist name": Frauke Hess)
12. Dr. Jens Glatzer
13. Marco T. E. Manfredini
14. Samantha Edsen
15. Eggs Gildo
16. Tobias Dittrich
17. Charlotte Brock
18. Katharina V. Drängler
19. Jana Käding
20. Norman Jutrowska

Are those stage names or real names?
Anyway, it's good that Germany's forensic biologist Mark Benecke, who has been contesting many different citywide, statewide, countrywide and continentwide political offices and seats in this decade, is only number 25 on that list. He is one of Germany's most radical and militant vegan activists.

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Why are there three Nazi parties on the ballot? What's the difference between them? Will III. Weg and Die Rechte cause the NPD not to make it in?

Die Rechte is the successor party of the DVU, which merged with the NPD in 2012.
Der III. Weg originated from the forbidden neo-Nazi goon squad Freies Netz Süd in 2013 and is mostly active in the East and in the South.
Ideologically they are the same scum.

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Meanwhile in Germany, Jusos (youth wing of the SPD) chairman Kevin Kühnert is dominating the headlines.
Kühnert, who came to fame as the loudest and most resolute opponent of the imminent GroKo back in 2017, has called for the nationalization of BMW; furthermore he wants to prohibit owner-occupants to own more than one apartment complex.



The SPD leadership, including Nahles, and trade associations and even the Greens (!) are enraged.
Johannes Kahrs, a neoliberal Social Democratic member of the Bundestag from Hamburg, alleged via Twitter that Kevin must have smoked something illegal. 😂

https://twitter.com/kahrs/status/1123621772522414082

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Best campaign poster ever:

„These are the issues we are putting our emphasis on:“

I have a feeling that the SPD's result is gonna plummet compared with their last (already disastrous) 2017 result. Kommi-Kevin's steep demands were the straw to break the camel's back.

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Fair point. However with Habeck and Göring-Eckardt for the first time in the modern history of the Greens two members of the moderate (realo) wing are leading the party, until now they had a constant balance between one realo and one leftist in the party leadership.

It's quite complicated with the Greens and their "Doppelspitzen":

Chairpersons: Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck
Caucus leaders: Katrin Göring-Eckardt and Anton Hofreiter
"Top candidates" for the 2017 federal election: Katrin Göring-Eckardt and Cem Özdemir
Vice President of the Bundestag: Claudia Roth
Top candidates for the 2019 European election: Ska Keller (and Dutch GroenLinks politician Bas Eickhout)

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