🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gerhard Schröder gave a big newspaper interview in which he declared Andrea Nahles incompetent and all but said that Sigmar Gabriel should return to the helm. That's all nonsense though IMO. As a general rule, incumbent SPD chairs are always seen as incompetent with a lot people simultanously having the opinion that person X would of course be much, much better. If Gabriel were really to return it would take about three to six months until people start to say how much he sucks and that Nahles was much better and/or Olaf Scholz would be much better. In addition, Gabriel was Schröder's protege at one point and therefore he naturally supports him.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I tend to be with RedPrometheus on this one. Due to his often erratic behavior it often seemed unclear what Gabriel actually stands for. He changed his mind so often. I also can't actually see him as a "great" Chancellor. But credit where credit is due... he managed to become the third-longest serving post-WWII SPD chairman, following Willy Brandt and Erich Ollenhauer in the 50s. If he were return to the top post he'd stand a chance at eventually becoming the SPD leader with the second-longest combined tenure.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New European Parliament election out from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen:

CDU/CSU 33%
Greens 19%
SPD 18%
AfD 10%
Left 8%
FDP 6%

The numbers are not much different from the last Infratest EP poll from last week, except that the Left is a bit stronger, and the FDP a bit weaker.


FGW has also released a Bundestag election poll today:

CDU/CSU 31%
Greens 20%
SPD 15%
AfD 13%
Left 9%
FDP 7%


I noticed that the AfD tends to be abit weaker in European election polls than in Bundestag polls, maybe due to Brexit anxiety? When the AfD discussed its EP election platform it made the news that they might support a withdrawal of Germany from the EU.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's not exactly news that AKK, who was generally seen as the most moderate/liberal candidate  in last year's CDU leadership election, was also the most conservative of the three with regards to LGBTI rights... while Jens Spahn, who was often seen as the most right-wing candidate in that election, was probably also the most progressive of the three on LGBTI rights (albeit mostly due to personal reasons).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wolfgang Kubicki, deputy chairman of the FDP and one of the Bundestag's five vice presidents, has demanded the expulsion of U.S. ambassador Richard Grenell from Germany:

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/nach-kritik-am-wehretat-kubicki-fordert-ausweisung-von-us-botschafter-grenell/24119308.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

I was reading on the European Politico website that the German government will most likely collapse this year and new elections will be held. Is there any truth to that?

Well, there's a so-called evaluation clause in the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition agreement which cames into effect after half the current Bundestag's term is up (in October/November this year). Both the SPD and the CDU under AKK have repeatedly stressed that they're going the re-evaluate the government very thoroughly.

[Middle-aged Europe]

My European Wahl-o-mat results...


Unweighted

Greens 85.5%
SPD 81.6%
Die Partei 73.7%
Left 68.4%
CDU/CSU 59.2%
FDP 57.9%
Free Voters 55.3%
AfD 13.2%


Weighted

Greens 88.0%
SPD 85.2%
Die Partei 77.8%
Left 70.4%
CDU/CSU 62.0%
Free Voters 59.3%
FDP 58.3%
AfD 10.2%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yes but the greens have moved so hard to the centre that they can hardly be described as "left". A red-red-green coalition is nothing but a wet dream as nobody outside the Jusos and die linke wants it, the only possible constellations are red-black and black-yellow-green.
Indeed the Greens have become so bürgerlich (bourgeois) that their Voters are the second richest behind the FDP!

I wonder on what this assessement is based exactly... Robert Habeck's recent call to collectivize large housing companies or his call from last year to replace Hartz IV with a Basic Income-ish proposal?  Given the latter position it can be argued that the Greens are more left-wing now than they were back in 2002, when they did govern with the SPD on the federal level and introduced Hartz IV. Then again, the same could be said about SPD who also walked back on Hartz IV recently. Except that this is more of a "hypothetical" stance during those periods in which the SPD governs with the CDU, as they happen to do right now. Then again, the same could said about the Greens during those periods in which they govern with the CDU.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Fair point. However with Habeck and Göring-Eckardt for the first time in the modern history of the Greens two members of the moderate (realo) wing are leading the party, until now they had a constant balance between one realo and one leftist in the party leadership.

From 2000 to 2001, Renate Künast and Fritz Kuhn served as federal party chairs of the Greens, both of which are at least at present considered members of the "Realo" wing. Künast however was originally considered a representative of the Leftist wing and transitioned to being a Realo sometime during the early 2000s. The "Realo" and "Leftist" labels are both fluid and covering a fairly wide spectrum. For instance, Habeck and Winfried Kretschmann are both considered members of the Realos, but ideologically there's still a fairly huge gap between them. I'd place Habeck at the left edge of the Realo wing, and he's probably closer to more moderate members of the Leftist wing than he's to Kretschmann.

Also especially if we look at the coalition negotiations in 2017, it is telling that  in creating a coalition between the CDU/FDP and the Greens who are (supposed to be) their complete ideological and cultural opponents, the trouble was always with the FDP while the greens were willing to jump into bed with the right quite easily.

When we're talking about the "complete ideological and cultural opponents" of the Greens during the Jamaica negotiations than I'd say these were CSU and FDP, but not so much the Merkelist CDU. The Greens and the CDU are certainly much closer on economic, fiscal or environmental issues than the Greens and the pro-market, small-government FDP. As far as I have heard (including from people which were part of these negotiations), the CDU was in fact the most willing of the three centre-right parties in making wide-ranging political concessions to the Greens. As a result, the FDP became afraid that the CDU would sell the farm and throw the Free Democrats under the bus in the process, leading to the FDP taking an increasingly agressive position during the Jamaica talks and attempting to co-opt the CSU as an ally against the Greens and to some extent the also the CDU. The CSU went in fact along with this for the longest duration of the negotiations. However, the FDP was misreading the CSU's intentions. In contrast to Lindner & Co. the CSU leadership ultimately turned out to be pragmatists who while maintining a very tough negotiating style also considered Jamaica to be a viable option. It was the moment when it started to seem like Greens and CSU could reach an governing agreement that the FDP suddenly pulled the plug on the Jamaica talks.

Overall i think that this is the Greens transitioning from a narrow "Interessenpartei", whose voters are mainly Students, the underprivileged, poor immigrants etc.. to a "Volkspartei" of 20%+ whose main voter base has now become the white upper-middle class (just look at Baden-Württenberg) while the former demographic has turned mostly to Die Linke (as exemplified by their large vote increases in west german inner-cities). Sadly as Sahra Wagenknecht said, in their pursuit for power i think they risk becoming the "Ökowohlfühlwohlstandsbürgertum" that they were founded to oppose.

The parts in bold are incorrect. You have it backwards here. The SPD and the Left are primarily the parties of the underprivileded and also the poor immigrants, while the Greens are more middle-class and to some extent one might even say "bourgeois" (although the latter aspect is  also often exaggerated by the Greens' leftist opponents IMO). Right now the Greens are trying to grow from a "8% party" into a "20% party" and as a result they're currently in a process of attempting to widen their voter base to include also the "underprivileged" SPD voters I alluded to. Voter shift from the Greens to the Left Party in West German cities can be largely attributed to the last of the die-hard 1960s/70s "New Left" anti-capitalist, pacifist, and anarchist activists switching their allegiance. But that's not same as blue-collar workers turning away from the Greens, since they never had much of a blue-collar base to begin with and are now starting to attempt to get the votes from that segment of society. In essence, the Greens are trying to become more like the SPD and in the process they have lost some voters to the Left who didn't want to vote for a SPD-ish "establishment" party.

It's quite complicated with the Greens and their "Doppelspitzen":

Chairpersons: Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck
Caucus leaders: Katrin Göring-Eckardt and Anton Hofreiter
"Top candidates" for the 2017 federal election: Katrin Göring-Eckardt and Cem Özdemir
Vice President of the Bundestag: Claudia Roth
Top candidates for the 2019 European election: Ska Keller (and Dutch GroenLinks politician Bas Eickhout)

It's even more complicated with the bolded part. While Keller and Eickhout are the lead candidates of the European Green Party (EGP), the lead candidates of the German Greens for the upcoming European election are Ska Keller and Sven Giegold.

Fair point. However with Habeck and Göring-Eckardt for the first time in the modern history of the Greens two members of the moderate (realo) wing are leading the party...

Chairpersons of the Greens are Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock (both are realos). Katrin Göring-Eckardt is the co-leader of the green fraction in the Bundestag.

^^

I noticed that someone "stole" my user name and my avatar...

[Middle-aged Europe]

I noticed that someone "stole" my user name and my avatar...

Sorry,
that was not my intention, when I'm looking for a good user name.
I think it is better that I rename myself.

No need to apologize, I just happened to notice it.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Milo Yiannopoulos is apparently too controversial.... for the AfD!


The AfD is planning to hold an "alternative media" conference in the Reichstag and so far they only had bad luck with that.

Originally, they had invited Steve Bannon as guest speaker, but Bannon turned them down (perhaps because the AfD had rejected his "Movement" organization last year??: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/08/11/german-far-right-rebuffs-steve-bannons-effort-forge-europe-wide/).

As a replacement, some in the AfD wanted to invite Yiannopoulos, but this created a backlash within their own ranks, culminating in them cancelling the invitation:

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/aerger-wegen-blogger-treffen-afd-abgeordnete-muessen-ultrarechten-stargast-ausladen/24328840.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

And the Wahl-o-mat is BACK... sort of.

Someone programmed an open source-based clone who supposedly gives the same answers as the real thing:

www.wahlom.at

[Middle-aged Europe]

And the Wahl-o-mat is BACK... sort of.

Someone programmed an open source-based clone who supposedly gives the same answers as the real thing:

www.wahlom.at

Sorry, neither Firefox nor my virus scanner let me enter that site. 😂

Mine does... apparently the guy who programmed this site is/was (?) the chair of the Left Party youth organization in Hamburg.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Sucks for the Lefty clone guy.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Last time, "other" parties won 9% of the vote.

Recently, I got the impression that a lot of voters are considering to cast a protest vote for a minor party. There's certainly no lack of them with 40 parties on the ballot. Parties popular among leftists include Die PARTEI, Democracy in Europe (DiEM25's list with Yanis Varoufakis as their German lead candidate), Volt Europa, and the Animal Protection Party. The Pirate Party, who was once upon time every anti-establishment left-liberal's darling, doesn't even remotely receive smiliar hype. But they too could win a single seat in the EP again.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Not sure if someone has already pointed that out, but these were the strongest parties in the ten largest cities in former East Germany (coincidentally also the cities in former East Germany with a population larger than 100,000):

1. Leipzig: Greens
2. Dresden: AfD
3. Chemnitz: AfD
4. Halle (Saale): CDU (2nd place: Greens)
5. Magdeburg: CDU (2nd place: AfD)
6. Erfurt: CDU (2nd place: AfD)
7. Rostock: Greens
8. Potsdam: Greens
9. Jena: Greens
10. Cottbus: AfD

For some reason, there was also not a single instance in which the Greens came in first and the AfD second and vice versa. Usually, the second strongest party in both the Green and the AfD strongholds was the CDU (with the exception of Potsdam were the SPD was in 2nd place).

There are a number of factors who have possibly contributed to that pattern. The existence of a large (non-technical oriented) university for one thing, in close (but not exclusive) relation to that a larger number of "immigrants" from West Germany living there etc.


These are the cities with the largest universities in former East Germany, ranked by number of students:

1. Dresden: Voted AfD, but has "only" a polytechnic university
2. Leipzig: Greens
3. Potsdam: Greens
4. Halle (Saale): Greens
5. Jena: Greens
6. Magdeburg: AfD, not exlusively a polytechnic university, but has a strong emphasis on that field
7. Rostock: Greens
8. Chemnitz: AfD, polytechnic university
9. Greifswald: not among the 100,000+ cities... the CDU came in first here yesterday, with the Greens in 2nd place
10. Cottbus: AfD, polytechnic university

Erfurt: Has only an extremely small university

[Middle-aged Europe]

Not sure if someone has already pointed that out, but these were the strongest parties in the ten largest cities in former East Germany (coincidentally also the cities in former East Germany with a population larger than 100,000):

1. Leipzig: Greens
2. Dresden: AfD
3. Chemnitz: AfD
4. Halle (Saale): CDU (2nd place: Greens)
5. Magdeburg: CDU (2nd place: AfD)
6. Erfurt: CDU (2nd place: AfD)
7. Rostock: Greens
8. Potsdam: Greens
9. Jena: Greens
10. Cottbus: AfD

For some reason, there was also not a single instance in which the Greens came in first and the AfD second and vice versa. Usually, the second strongest party in both the Green and the AfD strongholds was the CDU (with the exception of Potsdam were the SPD was in 2nd place).

There are a number of factors who have possibly contributed to that pattern. The existence of a large (non-technical oriented) university for one thing, in close (but not exclusive) relation to that a larger number of "immigrants" from West Germany living there etc.


These are the cities with the largest universities in former East Germany, ranked by number of students:

1. Dresden: Voted AfD, but has "only" a polytechnic university
2. Leipzig: Greens
3. Potsdam: Greens
4. Halle (Saale): Greens
5. Jena: Greens
6. Magdeburg: AfD, not exlusively a polytechnic university, but has a strong emphasis on that field
7. Rostock: Greens
8. Chemnitz: AfD, polytechnic university
9. Greifswald: not among the 100,000+ cities... the CDU came in first here yesterday, with the Greens in 2nd place
10. Cottbus: AfD, polytechnic university

Erfurt: Has only an extremely small university

Another aspect here is the marginalization of the Left Party in eastern Germany. In none of the ten largest East German cities did they come in either first or second... probably unthinkabe only five years ago. Populist protest voters are now going for the AfD, while more traditionally leftist/progressive voters move to the Greens it seems, leaving the Left Party diminished with only 5.5% of the national vote. This split within the Left Party had already been personfied by the recent conflicts between the Wagenknecht (AfD-ish Left) and Kipping (Green-ish Left) wings of the party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The party with the largest increase of votes in each county:

[Middle-aged Europe]

Another odd pattern I just noticed for city of Dresden:


Largest party in this Sunday's European election: AfD (2nd place: CDU, then Greens)

Largest party in this Sunday's city council election: Greens (2nd place: CDU, then AfD)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Another odd pattern I just noticed for city of Dresden:


Largest party in this Sunday's European election: AfD (2nd place: CDU, then Greens)

Largest party in this Sunday's city council election: Greens (2nd place: CDU, then AfD)

Voters prefer their cities to be run by sensible people. Europe, now...

Looking at the vote distribution in Dresden it's certainly possible that many local Green voters simply cast their vote for Die PARTEI (4.7%), Volt (1.5%), Animal Protection Party (1.3%), ÖDP (1.2%), and the Pirates (1.1%) in the European election.

Similarly, some European AfD voters possibly cast their vote for the "Free Voters of Dresden" (5.3%) in the local election.

In essence, Die PARTEI received 4.7% in the European election, but only 1.8% in the local election, while the Free Voters received only 2.3% in the European election, but 5.3% in the local election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

From what I sometimes see of East German AfD supporters on Facebook (a few of them I even knew personally) their voters in the east have started to embrace some sort of bizarre "East German nationalism". For instance, profile pictures that depict East Germany as the "Real Germany", while West Germany is the "Muslim Germany" are not uncommon. Often this is  intermingled with "Proud to be born in the GDR" pictures or the East German flag and the like. East Germany is 97% White therefore only that party counts is German etc. Sometimes I wonder when they will start to go fully separatist?

[Middle-aged Europe]

From what I sometimes see of East German AfD supporters on Facebook (a few of them I even knew personally) their voters in the east have started to embrace some sort of bizarre "East German nationalism". For instance, profile pictures that depict East Germany as the "Real Germany", while West Germany is the "Muslim Germany" are not uncommon. Often this is  intermingled with "Proud to be born in the GDR" pictures or the East German flag and the like. East Germany is 97% White therefore only that party counts is German etc. Sometimes I wonder when they will start to go fully separatist?

That makes me wonder, is there anyone who wants the former GDR to secede from the rest of Germany?

After all, I imagine there must be at least a few tankie communists who opposed reunification in 1990 or something right?

Currently not, no...

[Middle-aged Europe]

From what I sometimes see of East German AfD supporters on Facebook (a few of them I even knew personally) their voters in the east have started to embrace some sort of bizarre "East German nationalism". For instance, profile pictures that depict East Germany as the "Real Germany", while West Germany is the "Muslim Germany" are not uncommon. Often this is  intermingled with "Proud to be born in the GDR" pictures or the East German flag and the like. East Germany is 97% White therefore only that party counts is German etc. Sometimes I wonder when they will start to go fully separatist?

That makes me wonder, is there anyone who wants the former GDR to secede from the rest of Germany?

After all, I imagine there must be at least a few tankie communists who opposed reunification in 1990 or something right?

Historically the West was proper Germany and the East\Prussia was called by some Asia. There's the story of how Konrad Adenauer wanted to give the GDR Berlin in exchange for some territories who were historically "German".

Some of my best friends live in Berlin and they always talk about how weird the old GDR people are, and that they sometimes prefer to live together without western flatmates

There's always the other side of the story though. As far as I have heard almost my entire family - who is East German - went for the Greens this election, including my grandparents. Which is certainly odd considering that aside from myself and my mom nobody really tended to support the Greens before. I wonder if that would have ever happened hadn't been for the rise of the AfD or something. Germany has become much more polarized and the most politically polarized within Germany place are the eastern states where the phenomenon is seemingly reaching "American" levels now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

If the Greens are surging, then they will hold this seat on the back of Linke/Spd voters.

The Greens will definitely win the second vote in that district, but I'm not sure about the first vote, especially since Bayram isn't even famous at all, unlike Somuncu.

You seriously believe that the Greens (whoever they are running) could actually lose Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg when they are polling at 27% nationally, after they had won that direct seat with only 9% of national vote in 2017??? Because Somuncu is (sort of) "famous"?

Sorry, but you need to start to understand elections. The only ones who could theoretically take that direct seat from the Greens are the Left. But not with the Greens polling at 27%. The Left would have a shot with the Greens polling at 7-9% nationally.

This year's European Election results in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg looked like this:

Greens 40.3%
Left 15.9%
SPD 10.5%
Die PARTEI 8.9%
CDU 5.7%
AfD 4.0%
DiEM25 2.7%
FDP 2.6%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Rumoured to be new defense minister (replacing VdL): Jens Spahn

Rumoured to be new health minister (replacing Spahn): Annette Widmann-Mauz, Commissioner for Migration and Integration