🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Yeahsayyeah]

I think, you are totally wrong

Friedrich Merz is economically right wing, socially conservative, globalist/transatlanticist/pro-EU/free trade with strong ties to the financial sector

AKK is centrist, politically catholic, and probably a tad more conservative then Merkel, but she's probably the closest you can get to Merkel in style and policies

Jens Spahn is a very ambitious loudmouth, but it's actually not to clear, what he really stands for, he's quite socially conservative - whatever that means in Germany in 2018, but gay. As health secretary his bilance seems mixed at the moment, but at least he tries to work on the issues.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Merz was the creator of the "deutsche Leitkultur" debate/slogan/whatever (maybe "core culture" would be the most substantial translation of the given proposals in the English wikipedia article) and on the othter hand, he is very friendly to big business. So we will probably get some more discourses a la "the immigrants should integrate better". Not so sure, weither Merz buys the "Islam isn't a part of Germany" nonsense. I guess, he would try to further reduce the numbers of asylum seekers, but on the other hand wouldn't mind "useful" immigration of well educated economically successful people and cheap labor, that the companies like.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Why should anyone go from Greens to CDU for Friedrich Merz, of all people?

[Yeahsayyeah]

I think, that the discussion of snap elections is overhyped. CDU/CSU actually has no incentive to call snap elections, given the state of the polls. And I don't think Merkel wants to go with a faked vote of confidence (The three votes of confidence for calling fresh elections that happened either happened, because  the gonvernment lost its majority in the Bundestag (1972, though even this vote was technically faked by the ministers abstaining) or wanted a fresh mandate, either after the election of a new chancellor (1982) or out of a position that was seen as political precarious to show initaitve (2005).

The other way would be Merkel resigning (but that probably does not allign with her political ethos - resign and let the country in a state seen as unstable, because we would get into totally untestested constitutional waters). If Merkel resigns there would be a new chancellor election in the Bundestag, were President Steinmeier (SPD) has the right of the first proposal. Let's say it's more likely for the SPD to vote for Kramp-Karrenbauer then for Merz, but this is not sure. If Merkel resigns the election of AKK will probably be negotiated with the SPD beforehand. They won't go with burning AKK by three unsuccesful chancelor votes in the Bundestag. Of course, she could get a plurality in the third, which probably would lead to a short-termed Union/FDP minority government followed by a real lost vote of confidence. The Greens will not take part in a Jamaica governement before new elections. (BTW they will not nominate Kretschmann, they are very satisfied with their Duo Habeck/Baerbock that has actually shifted the intra-party center of power back from Baden-Württemberg to the federal party).

And if they really go for snap elections, they will probably wait till the dust is settled, let themselves time to prepare and go for a more traditional election date in autumn. There is no reason to hasten things, especially as Merkel has a good working relationship with her heir apparent Kramp-Karrenbauer.

[Yeahsayyeah]

There are two different forms of confidence vote. The one is the constructive no-confidence vote you mentioned. The other is a confidence vote, that the chancellor can call ("Vertrauensfrage"). I he or she looses that (and he or she has to get the absolutemajority of Bundestag members), the president CAN dissolve the Bundestag and call fresh elections, but he is not obliged to. There were the three "unsuccesful" confidence votes I mentioned (1972, Kohl 1982, 2005) and I think two succesful (Schmidt 1982 and one by Schröder that was connected with an out-of-area mandate for the Bundeswehr decision).

Of course the chancellor could also resign, at which point the constitutional process of a new chancellor election would have to take place, that also could lead to new elections, but only after at least three votes. But Merkelwould not do ist, if the election of AKK is not (at least almost) safe.

[Yeahsayyeah]

I think, people will get confused by the three Animal protection parties competing. Not all of them are left-wing. ;-)

[Yeahsayyeah]

The first attemt would probably be a Jaimaica (CDU-Green-FDP) coalition unless overhang seats lead to a black-green majority in itself.

[Yeahsayyeah]

I didn't understand why did the CDU announced its Spitzenkandidat at the same day of the Greens.

That was fully unintentional ... that Söder didn't back down after the decision of the party presidium last week created a dynamic of an open exchange of blows that spiraled out of control, gave bad publicity and weakened Laschet by the hour. So he and his allies pulled out the full stop with the final vote in the CDU national Committee, after the deadline both candidates had agreed on ("We will find a solution until or at least at the weekend") had already expired. Obviously, they did not find a solution earlier than that and waiting some other news cycles would have left more damage for them.

[Yeahsayyeah]

The Constitutional Court decided today, that the German anti-climate-change-law is unconstitutional for not being ambitious enough to save the rights and freedoms of young and future generations.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Election.de does a district prognosis the author makes much fuzz about But which seems basically to be a uniform swing model. I did one myself out of curiosity. I will give some insights when I'm home in the evening. The Greens could win seats in big cities that are not the Ruhr area, and in Baden-Württemberg. And the Wendland, of course. About 40 to 60 seats. SPD would hold quie steady. AfD could win seats in the Eastern,  if their vote share doesnt drop much.

In the end, much would depend on swing differentials in Different regions and sociodemographic groups, vote splitting patterns between list and district votes in an unprecendented environment, and factors like candidate quality, incumbency, tactical voting

[Yeahsayyeah]

I did a uniform swing model myself out of curiosity.

I take the average of latest polls of Kantar (The artists formerly known as Emnid), Forsa, FG Wahlen, GMS, InfratestDimap and INSA which would be

CDU/CSU 25,8 (-7,1)
Greens 23,7 (+14,3)
SPD 14,7 (-5,8)
FDP 11 (+0,3)
AfD 10,8 (-1,8)
LINKE 7,2 (-2)

and apply the swings uniformly to the district and the list vote in the districts (there aren't many polls for the Bundestag elections in the different states as of now, maybe I will account for that at a later stage. (And of course this doesn't take splitting patterns, candidate quality, incumbency, sociodemographic factors into account, but it gives an idea)

This would give won districts by district votes

CDU: 151 (-34)
CSU: 40 (-6)
SPD: 54 (-5)
Greens: 37 (+36)
AfD: 13 (+10)
Left: 4 (-1)

Districts won by list votes

CDU: 131 (-79)
CSU: 40 (-6)
SPD: 25 (-5)
Greens: 80 (+80)
AfD: 20 (+14)
Left: 3 (-4)

These 80 green districts would include at least one seat in each state, but Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

[Yeahsayyeah]

There are no strong trends at the moment. Greens down a bit, CDU up a bit over the last week as the chancellor candidate selection processes are fading a bit from recent memory. SPD up a bit back to 15 per cent which can probably additionally be attributed to their party conference. FDP stagnant and AfD down a bit. But we are talking about at the maximum two percentage points about the last two weeks.

[Yeahsayyeah]

The CDU would probably prefer a "Germany" coalition, but why would a probably weakened SPD go into the a coalition that is probably further right?

[Yeahsayyeah]

No, this will not happen. The SSW has a statewide support of what, 3 to 4 percent? They did not even win a district in the state election. Federal election districts are much larger, so it would be even harder for the SSW to win a seat.

But they don't have to. They are exempt from the five percent threshold in federal elections, too, by an agreement between the Federal Republic of Germany and Denmark in the fifties about mutual minority protection. And there is an according clause in the election law exempting parties of recognized national minorities, which would basically mean Danes and Sorbs, from the five per cent threshold.

But until now the SSW choose not to use it. So they maybe would only need about 0,15 per cent of the list votes to reach the Bundestag with one deputy. 3 to 4 per cent in Schleswig-Holstein could be enough if you look at the population figures as a rough estimate (I didn't bother with non-eligible population and turnout differntials). I also don't know if they would be eligible for compensation seats if there are overhang seats and they don't get their seat right away from the "normal" 598.

[Yeahsayyeah]

-Püttlingen: AKK's hometown, suburban, many "typical" middle class households, extremely Catholic - 11,900

I always thought of Püttlingen as one of these typical industrial/post-industrial Saarland towns, because of anecdotes about the strength of the DKP there. Or did I mix something up?

[Yeahsayyeah]

The compromesso storico at the Saar! ;-)

[Yeahsayyeah]

This follows basically years of infighting and stalemates between the several complex groupings inside the party. That does not help the messaging.
The demographic and structural demise in their Eastern strongholds isn't compensated numerically by the influx of left postmaterialist urban mileus whose members can also go to the Greens (and have other opitons too, like die Partei and so on) under the right (or wrong) circumstances. That's the long-term structural problem.

In the short term, the anti-Corona measures, where there wasn't a coherent message (Take that as you want, but the FDP was much better in their messaging of "We aknowledge that something has to be done, but these measures go to far, at least in the details and set the wrong prorities" which was similar to the Left's take. Some switched to the Greens as combating climate change becomes a higher priority and it is seen possible to not get a CDU man at the chancellor position. That the Left ist propagating hurdles the other potential partners can't take for a coalition - like: we demand to leave the NATO or we won't even negotiate - probably doesn't help too much, strategically.

[Yeahsayyeah]

An interesting question would be by what numbbers youngish educated people who want redistribution of wealth but are more "socially conservative" (for a lack of a better term) exist and whom they vote for. But even they probably think more in a classical liberal and individualistic societal framework or are quite religious.

[Yeahsayyeah]

There are Allensbach, Kantar (Emnid), Forsa, Forsch’gr. Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, INSA and YouGov polls. Which one is more reliable?

Allensbach seems to have an outdated methology, has strange field operation times so that th, ey always seem to publish two weeks later, and has a notable pro-FDP bias

Kantar, FGW, and Infratest dimap seem fine

Forsa is always very bouncy, seems to seek data to fuel narratives, and has an anti-SPD bias despite the founder being an SPD member.

INSA is allegedly closer to the AfD, on the other hand their Bundestag poll numbers seem quite accurate.

I never really heard of GMS outside the wahlrecht.de poll list. And Yougov is a joke.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Oh, It totally forgot about civey which I actually take as "Spiegel Online's folly" and not as a serious pollster. I wondered about this INSA/yougov pairing a lot.

As state election polls are concerned, there are a lot of newcomers, unknown and dodgy pollsters out there.

[Yeahsayyeah]

I observed that only the FDP is both pro legalization of cannabis and against speed limits on the highways. The other parties are or pro legalization of cannabis and pro speed limit or against legalization of cannabis and against speed limits.

For me, it looks like a good idea legal cannabis and no speed limits. But there should be a control so that people who smoked weed don't drive 200 kmph.

You can't talk about German drug policy without recognising that Cannabis ist kein Brokkoli

Yes, because unlike canabis broccoli kills people

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJfejLup_E0

[Yeahsayyeah]

Sonstige is probably mostly NPD here which lost almost 500000 votes between 2013 and 2017 and a good chunk of 2013 Pirate Party voters (they clearly had a protest vote segment), some fluctuation with the Free Voters and sucking up other right wing parties like the Republicans, although they were already miniscule in 2013.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Why is Laschet even a candidate? My only memory of the CDU leadership contest between him and Söder was that Söder seemed like the strongest, base-appealing candidate. Was that wrong, and he was seen as a good candidate at the time but has since unraveled, or what?

Basically the main reasoning was that Laschet wanted the spot desperately and he was the newly elected CDU chair and he (and with him the party) would be severely damaged by denying it to him. Side reasonings were: Söder has a boost for being seen as an effective leader against covid19 and that could vanish. Laschet is some kind of a comeback kid as he won an NRW landtag election that seemed unwinnable for him.

[Yeahsayyeah]

When did Die linke manage to shed the baggage of being the legacy party of the SED?

It feels strange for them to be in a coalition and I wondered how much of a resistance there would be?

They haven't shed it. Both the SDP and Green know they'd loose a bunch of moderate voters governing with them.

But if, "SED heritage" would not be the reason. The number of people that care about that is shrinking, at least for biological reason. The Linke has now members from the west than from the east now. And the Easterners are mostly the more moderate forces in the party. Even as the Union parties try to revive the "red socks" campaign in a desperate move, now, "SED legacy" is not the angle they are using.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Extremely happy that SDP is going to win this. The Germans are making the right choice, punishing corrupt and elitarian boring politicians like Baerbock and Laschet, and going for someone competent, pragmatic and caring as Scholz. I certainly support SDP even if i didn't like them during most of my life.

Of course, corruption and elitarianism are totally unheard of in relation to Cum-ex-Olaf respectively Hartz-IV-Olaf...