Final: Senate Election Predictions

[JA]

Here is your final chance to make your predictions for the 35 US Senate races that will be occurring on November 6, 2018. You are strongly encouraged to predict:

(1) The winner of each Senate election
(2) The percentage share of the final results (for the major candidates)
and, optionally,
(3) The county level results

In the end, summarize what you predict will be the seat pickups/losses for Democrats and Republicans, the Senate composition during the next Congress, and what will be the most surprising/interesting Senate election on the night of the 6th.

Predictions will no longer be accepted after Tuesday, November 6 at 5:59pm EST/4:59pm CST.

[Tender Branson]

D+3

Dems lose ND, but win NV, AZ, TX and TN.

[Calthrina950]

D+0.

The Democrats will flip Nevada and Arizona, but lose North Dakota and Missouri. Hence, the status quo will be maintained in the Senate. As for percentages (these are rough guesses):

Arizona: Sinema 49-48%.
Florida: Nelson 49-48%.
Indiana: Donnelly 47-46%.
Montana: Tester 49-46%.
Missouri: Hawley 49-47%.
Nevada: Rosen 48-46%.
North Dakota: Cramer 55-43%.
Tennessee: Blackburn 54-43%.
West Virginia: Manchin 52-45%.

[MillennialModerate]

SENATE: R +2 • Dems flip AZ • GOP flips MO, IN, ND

HOUSE: Dems pick up 15-25 seats, Tossup about who has majority

GOVS: Dems win Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, but lose Georgia.

[McGovernForPrez]

Senate: D+1
Dems pick up AZ +NV
GOP pick up ND

TN, ND, and TX are all within a 5 point margin.

Donnelly wins Indiana by at least 3 points.

[Tender Branson]

My detailed predictions for now:

NV: Rosen +3
AZ: Sinema +2
MT: Tester +5
TX: Beto +0.5
ND: Cramer +6
MO: McCaskill +2
IN: Donnelly +4
WV: Manchin +9
TN: Bredesen +2
FL: Nelson +1
NJ: Menendez +8

Everyone else wins by double digits.

[JA]

Arizona: Sinema - 49% | McSally - 47%
California: Feinstein - 57% | de Leon - 43%
Connecticut: Murphy - 59% | Corey - 40%
Delaware: Carper - 62% | Arlett - 36%
Florida: Nelson - 51% | Scott - 47%
Hawaii: Hirono - 66% | Curtis - 34%
Indiana: Donnelly - 50% | Braun - 46%
Maine: King - 54% | Brakey - 39% | Ringelstein - 7%
Maryland: Cardin - 62% | Campbell - 32%
Massachusetts: Warren - 60% | Diehl - 34% | Ayyadurai - 6%
Michigan: Stabenow - 54% | James - 45%
Minnesota (1): Klobuchar - 62% | Newberger - 37%
Minnesota (2): Smith - 54% | Housley - 44%
Mississippi (1): Wicker - 60% | Baria - 40%
Mississippi (2): Hyde-Smith - 36% | Espy - 35% | McDaniel - 26%
Missouri: McCaskill - 50% | Hawley - 49%
Montana: Tester - 52% | Rosendale - 46%
Nebraska: Fischer - 59% | Raybould - 40%
Nevada: Rosen - 48% | Heller - 44%
New Jersey: Menendez - 54% | Hugin - 43%
New Mexico: Heinrich - 52% | Rich - 37% | Johnson - 11%
New York: Gillibrand - 63% | Farley - 37%
North Dakota: Cramer - 54% | Heitkamp - 45%
Ohio: Brown - 56% | Renacci - 43%
Pennsylvania: Casey - 55% | Barletta - 43%
Rhode Island: Whitehouse - 61% | Flanders - 38%
Tennessee: Blackburn - 54% | Bredesen - 46%
Texas: Cruz - 51% | O'Rourke - 47%
Utah: Romney - 66% | Wilson - 28%
Vermont: Sanders - 70% | Zupan - 28%
Virginia: Kaine - 57% | Stewart - 41%
Washington: Cantwell - 58% | Hutchinson - 40%
West Virginia: Manchin - 51% | Morrisey - 43%
Wisconsin: Baldwin - 53% | Vukmir - 45%
Wyoming: Barrasso - 66% | Trauner - 32%

Democrats +1 (2 pickups, 1 loss), Republicans -1 (2 losses, 1 pickup)
Next Senate: Republicans - 50, Democrats - 48, Independents - 2

[Heisenberg]

SENATE: R +2 • Dems flip AZ • GOP flips MO, IN, ND

HOUSE: Dems pick up 15-25 seats, Tossup about who has majority

GOVS: Dems win Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, but lose Georgia.

Serious question, how do the Dems flip AZ but not NV? I want to think Heller has a real shot, but remember, NV's polling history. Democrats are ALWAYS underestimated.

[Wisconsin+17]

Arizona: McSally - 52% | Sinema - 48%
California: Feinstein - 65% | de Leon - 35%
Connecticut: Murphy - 65% | Corey - 35%
Delaware: Carper - 65% | Arlett - 35%
Florida: Scott - 52% | Nelson - 48%
Hawaii: Hirono - 66% | Curtis - 34%
Indiana: Braun - 53% | Donnelly - 47%
Maine: King - 54% | Brakey - 39% | Ringelstein - 7%
Maryland: Cardin - 65% | Campbell - 29%
Massachusetts: Warren - 60% | Diehl - 34% | Ayyadurai - 6%
Michigan: Stabenow - 54% | James - 46%
Minnesota (1): Klobuchar - 58% | Newberger - 42%
Minnesota (2): Housley 50% | Smith - 50%
Mississippi (1): Wicker - 60% | Baria - 40%
Mississippi (2): Hyde-Smith - 50% | Espy - 30% | McDaniel - 18%
Missouri: Hawley - 55% | McCaskill 45%
Montana:  Rosendale - 52% | Tester 47%
Nebraska: Fischer - 62% | Raybould - 38%
Nevada: Heller - 54% | Rosen - 46%
New Jersey: Menendez - 49% | Hugin - 48%
New Mexico: Heinrich - 48% | Rich - 40% | Johnson - 11%
New York: Gillibrand - 69% | Farley - 31%
North Dakota: Cramer - 62% | Heitkamp - 38%
Ohio: Brown - 52% | Renacci - 48%
Pennsylvania: Casey - 53% | Barletta - 47%
Rhode Island: Whitehouse - 67% | Flanders - 32%
Tennessee: Blackburn - 58% | Bredesen - 42%
Texas: Cruz - 60% | O'Rourke - 40%
Utah: Romney - 66% | Wilson - 28%
Vermont: Sanders - 70% | Zupan - 28%
Virginia: Kaine - 53% | Stewart - 46%
Washington: Cantwell - 58% | Hutchinson - 40%
West Virginia: Manchin - 48% | Morrisey - 47%
Wisconsin: Vukmir 48% | Baldwin 48%
Wyoming: Barrasso - 70% | Trauner - 28%

[Wisconsin+17]

[Xing]

I put my analysis in the ratings thread.

[Vern]

[The Other Castro]

[mcmikk]

D+1, Ds flip AZ and NV, Rs flip ND. All other seats are holds.

[Sestak]

D+1, Ds flip AZ and NV, Rs flip ND. All other seats are holds.

[KingSweden]

D+1, Ds flip AZ and NV, Rs flip ND. All other seats are holds.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

What on earth Ben?

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

D+1, Ds flip AZ and NV, Rs flip ND. All other seats are holds.

[IceSpear]

Arizona: McSally - 52% | Sinema - 48%
California: Feinstein - 65% | de Leon - 35%
Connecticut: Murphy - 65% | Corey - 35%
Delaware: Carper - 65% | Arlett - 35%
Florida: Scott - 52% | Nelson - 48%
Hawaii: Hirono - 66% | Curtis - 34%
Indiana: Braun - 53% | Donnelly - 47%
Maine: King - 54% | Brakey - 39% | Ringelstein - 7%
Maryland: Cardin - 65% | Campbell - 29%
Massachusetts: Warren - 60% | Diehl - 34% | Ayyadurai - 6%
Michigan: Stabenow - 54% | James - 46%
Minnesota (1): Klobuchar - 58% | Newberger - 42%
Minnesota (2): Housley 50% | Smith - 50%
Mississippi (1): Wicker - 60% | Baria - 40%
Mississippi (2): Hyde-Smith - 50% | Espy - 30% | McDaniel - 18%
Missouri: Hawley - 55% | McCaskill 45%
Montana:  Rosendale - 52% | Tester 47%
Nebraska: Fischer - 62% | Raybould - 38%
Nevada: Heller - 54% | Rosen - 46%
New Jersey: Menendez - 49% | Hugin - 48%
New Mexico: Heinrich - 48% | Rich - 40% | Johnson - 11%
New York: Gillibrand - 69% | Farley - 31%
North Dakota: Cramer - 62% | Heitkamp - 38%
Ohio: Brown - 52% | Renacci - 48%
Pennsylvania: Casey - 53% | Barletta - 47%
Rhode Island: Whitehouse - 67% | Flanders - 32%
Tennessee: Blackburn - 58% | Bredesen - 42%
Texas: Cruz - 60% | O'Rourke - 40%
Utah: Romney - 66% | Wilson - 28%
Vermont: Sanders - 70% | Zupan - 28%
Virginia: Kaine - 53% | Stewart - 46%
Washington: Cantwell - 58% | Hutchinson - 40%
West Virginia: Manchin - 48% | Morrisey - 47%
Wisconsin: Vukmir 48% | Baldwin 48%
Wyoming: Barrasso - 70% | Trauner - 28%

At first I thought this was a joke, then I looked at the username...

I love how Manchin is still winning even in a timeline where Baldwin and Smith lose though, LOL.

[MT Treasurer]

Montana: Tester - 54% | Rosendale - 44%

I’d love to see your county map prediction for this race.

[brucejoel99]

TX: O'Rourke +0.5
ND: Heitkamp +0.6
TN: Bredesen +2
MO: McCaskill +2
AZ: Sinema +2
FL: Nelson +2
IN: Donnelly +3
NV: Rosen +3
MT: Tester +5
NJ: Menendez +6
WV: Manchin +8

[tinman64]

[Don Vito Corleone]

I'm not sure about some of these calls (TN and MO to be specific) but this is the map I think is the most likely.

[Mr.Phips]

Wait, Hillary is President?

[JA]

Montana: Tester - 54% | Rosendale - 44%

I’d love to see your county map prediction for this race.