Is there any fear of that "hidden Republican vote"

[sg0508]

You know what I'm talking about.  It's become more unacceptable to be a Trump supporter, maybe even a conservative in general, depending on where you are.  Polls in '14 were often wrong. In '16, they were GROSSLY wrong.  People lie, but as Brokaw said back on Election Night '16, the magic of the ballot gives every one of us the privacy to vote for whom we want, and nobody has to know about it.

In these tight races that Democrats have a slight lead in, is there any fear of that?

Both major races in FL are potential targets for this.  Polls seem to skew slightly for both Democrats, but I wouldn't necessarily put an Election Day surge for both GOP candidates out the window.
 If you remember what we did learn two years back, same day voting put TRump over the top here, and did so in other key states like PA and MI.

[cvparty]

You know what I'm talking about.  It's become more unacceptable to be a Trump supporter, maybe even a conservative in general, depending on where you are.  Polls in '14 were often wrong. In '16, they were GROSSLY wrong.  People lie, but as Brokaw said back on Election Night '16, the magic of the ballot gives every one of us the privacy to vote for whom we want, and nobody has to know about it.

In these tight races that Democrats have a slight lead in, is there any fear of that?

Both major races in FL are potential targets for this.  Polls seem to skew slightly for both Democrats, but I wouldn't necessarily put an Election Day surge for both GOP candidates out the window.
 If you remember what we did learn two years back, same day voting put TRump over the top here, and did so in other key states like PA and MI.

...not really
there was no "silent majority" for trump in 2016

[Roronoa D. Law]

There usually bias for the party that won the last election. In 2012 pollster underestimated Obama therefor they overestimated the Democrats chances in 2014. 2016 was different as most pollsters, political pundit, and Trump himself did not take his candidacy seriously. 

[sg0508]

The other big problem with polls are early voting and mail-in ballots (i.e. OR and WA State).  How the heck can you get a fair poll?

[J. J.]

Yes, though in my case not fear.

In 2016, Trump underpolled in MO and IN by 7.5 and 8.3 points, respectively.  If there is just 1/3 of that, the GOP wins both states.  Excluding IL, this happened to various degrees across the Midwest. Why? Bad modeling? "Shy Trump voters?"  I don't know.

Trump overpolled in AZ and NV, by 0.5 and 3.2 points, respectively.  That tempers that possibility.

If the Republicans are uniformly underpolling by 1.5 points, they would hold NV and AZ, and pick up ND, MO, IN, and FL.  I would not expect uniform under/overpolling across these states.   

[wbrocks67]

No. The only reason this myth happened was because people thought people were embarrassed to admit they were voting Trump. Why would they be embarrassed to say they're voting for their local GOP?

Also, again, for the 10000th time, a lot of polling error in 2016 was due to high undecideds that ended up breaking for Trump because of the Comey letter and because Trump was the 'change' candidate/party out of power.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Shy Trump voters aren't a thing. Polls have margins of error that encompass a range they can be off on, and they often miss the results within that range all the time. The divergence between poll results and actual results is usually due to improper methodology/erroneous demographic weighting/turnout differentials, not because people lie to pollsters.

[SN2903]

The silent vote is white college educated men and women. If they largely stick with the GOP it will be a long night for the democrats. Democrats aren't taking the house unless they do a lot better with them than 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both parties for to watch out for each other's base as the hidden vote. Dems need to start winning midterms, and it can happen since 2006

[DrScholl]

I am concerned that Republicans might have mysterious bags of votes show up from a supposed "silent majority". With the religious fanaticism these people think they are chosen by God to do anything they have to in order to win.

In seriousness, there is no "silent majority" waiting to rise up and save Republicans. This isn't a Christian film where everything is going to turn into a miracle at the 11th Hour.

[SN2903]

Both parties for to watch out for each other's base as the hidden vote. Dems need to start winning midterms, and it can happen since 2006

Dems don't usually turnout well in midterms. The high early vote turnout isn't necessarily a good sign for democrats.

[J. J.]

No. The only reason this myth happened was because people thought people were embarrassed to admit they were voting Trump. Why would they be embarrassed to say they're voting for their local GOP?

Also, again, for the 10000th time, a lot of polling error in 2016 was due to high undecideds that ended up breaking for Trump because of the Comey letter and because Trump was the 'change' candidate/party out of power.

Ah, no, on the undecideds.   

There was strengthening of Trump IN, but it was before the 28th.   

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/in/indiana_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6108.html

In MO, his numbers had started down.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mo/missouri_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6009.html#polls

Trump's numbers were lower after the 28th in IA and WI.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5981.html#polls

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5976.html#polls

Trump underpolled in that area in 2016.  It does not appear related to Comey.

In most of those states, Hillary actually overpolled slightly; Johnson and Stein overpolled by a lot. 

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Yes, though in my case not fear.

In 2016, Trump underpolled in MO and IN by 7.5 and 8.3 points, respectively.  If there is just 1/3 of that, the GOP wins both states.  Excluding IL, this happened to various degrees across the Midwest. Why? Bad modeling? "Shy Trump voters?"  I don't know.

Trump overpolled in AZ and NV, by 0.5 and 3.2 points, respectively.  That tempers that possibility.

If the Republicans are uniformly underpolling by 1.5 points, they would hold NV and AZ, and pick up ND, MO, IN, and FL.  I would not expect uniform under/overpolling across these states.   

[Yank2133]

Both parties for to watch out for each other's base as the hidden vote. Dems need to start winning midterms, and it can happen since 2006

Dems don't usually turnout well in midterms. The high early vote turnout isn't necessarily a good sign for democrats.

Democrats turned out just fine in 2006 (which was the last time they didn't control the WH).

Democrats turnout "problem" is a complete myth. Turnout is done when they control the WH, but they turnout at the same rate as R's do when they are out of power.