What will get the GOP over the top in Minnesota?

[President Phil Scott]

A continuation of the republican trend outside of Hennepin and Ramsey would flip the state. Trump got 58% of the 2 party vote outside of Hennepin and Ramsey, he got 30% overall in those 2 counties. Minnesota sans Hennepin and Ramsey had 2 million votes in 2016, Hennepin and Ramsey produced 0.95 million votes.

Basically one way of looking at it is 1/3 of the vote in Minnesota comes from Hennepin and Ramsey, the dems got 70% of the 2 party vote there. The rest of the state produces 2/3 of the vote where Trump got 58% of the 2 party vote, if the rest of the state starts voting even 60% Republican which it might in 2020 and Hennepin and Ramsey remain 70% democratic, then Minnesota would vote Republican.  If Minnesota outside of Hennepin and Ramsey were to start voting 65% republican which it might by the 2020's, then the GOP would win the state by 7.5% and Minnesota would become the new Ohio.


The fundamental maths problem for the democrats in Minnesota is only 1/3 of the vote comes from Hennepin and Ramsey so if they gain 1% in those counties for every 1% they lose elsewhere, they sustain a net loss of 0.33%. In addition the dems are closer to maxing out Hennepin and Ramsey then Republicans are to maxing out the rest of the state.

Exactly right.
Straight, and spot-on!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The problem with that analysis is there are heavily populated counties outside Hennepin and Ramsey not friendly to Trump and the modern day GOP. And they all swung D this year.

[President Phil Scott]

The problem with that analysis is there are heavily populated counties outside Hennepin and Ramsey not friendly to Trump and the modern day GOP. And they all swung D this year.

It's tough for them even if you include those counties with the Hen/Ram. group

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The problem with that analysis is there are heavily populated counties outside Hennepin and Ramsey not friendly to Trump and the modern day GOP. And they all swung D this year.

It's tough for them even if you include those counties with the Hen/Ram. group

If you do the math is completely different.

Look at Walz and Smith's performance and consider that Trump actually got about the same percentage as Romney.

[Tekken_Guy]

The problem with that analysis is there are heavily populated counties outside Hennepin and Ramsey not friendly to Trump and the modern day GOP. And they all swung D this year.

Dakota and Washington say hi.

[wbrocks67]

I wonder if 2016 was the GOP's ceiling in MN. Dem gains in Twin Cities may be enough of a bulwark against a statewide GOP majority.

I think it was. After seeing the 2018 margins, it's almost shocking to think that Trump got within 1.5% there. Honestly, that was really, really impressive.

Having said that, Tina Smith and Tim Walz were pretty generic D-y, and they both cruised to 12% wins two years later.

[lfromnj]

I wonder if 2016 was the GOP's ceiling in MN. Dem gains in Twin Cities may be enough of a bulwark against a statewide GOP majority.

I think it was. After seeing the 2018 margins, it's almost shocking to think that Trump got within 1.5% there. Honestly, that was really, really impressive.

Having said that, Tina Smith and Tim Walz were pretty generic D-y, and they both cruised to 12% wins two years later.

I mean Al franken did it in 2014. Anyway FL is cursed for dems and MN is cursed for the GOP.

[pbrower2a]

Uh guys, we're talking about a state that Trump lost by 1.5%

Increased gains in the Iron Range or a small recovery in the Twin Cities would do it. No need to be talking about "perfect storms" or "good luck". A modest improvement on 2016 could do it.

The iron miners got excited about infrastructure spending because infrastructure projects devour iron ore that is turned into steel. Then it turned out that the infrastructure spending was mostly contingent upon privatization of public infrastructure with the federal government sweetening the deals to turn freeways into toll roads. Improvements would come in the Sweet By and Bye with bigger traffic loads and large amounts of toll revenue available for improvements.

That failed. Just look at the Senate results. Sure, Amy Klobuchar won as an entrenched incumbent usually wins, but Tina Smith won as an appointed Senator seeking election for the first time to the office. Appointed Senators usually lose, and rarely win by the margin by with which she won.

For Trump to win Minnesota he is going to need more than a 2% nationwide shift in the vote. He has been a severe disappointment despite getting close in 2016. Should Klobuchar be the D nominee she wins Minnesota by a 20% margin, which is worth considering. If she is looking for infrastructure in the language of Highways, then such will be Interstate 92 following US 12 west into Montana (it creates a shorter route to Seattle) or Interstate 98 from Duluth to Grand Forks and probably eastward into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Toll-free all the way, and good for some economically-blighted areas.     

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

If Trump can maintain and/or continue his Midwest inroads then he would probably flip it by winning the national popular vote in 2020. Minnesota was very close (1.6+D) and it was actually the first time since 1952 that the state was (albeit very slightly) right of the nation. The problem is the surge and defection of Frostbelt rural and blue collar whites to Trump in 2016 might not grant him victory in 2020 due to dissatisfaction and overexpectation.

[brucejoel99]

It would probably take a "perfect storm" for this to happen:

-The Democratic candidate would have to be a pro-establishment candidate who promotes corporatist policies which turn off working-class voters;
-The Republican candidate would have to promote economic populism;
-The Republican candidate would have to win the NPV or lose it by no more than a fraction of a percent.

[538Electoral]

I've mentioned this before, But in order for Trump to win, He has to keep his promises to their voters. If the democrat is below average, Trump would probably win MN as well.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

Uh guys, we're talking about a state that Trump lost by 1.5%

Increased gains in the Iron Range or a small recovery in the Twin Cities would do it. No need to be talking about "perfect storms" or "good luck". A modest improvement on 2016 could do it.

He basically matched the performance range of the past two GOP candidates. He needs more than a modest improvement since the Democrat is very likely to consolidate left-wing voters that bled to third parties in 2016. A small Twin Cities rebound (which I think is unlikely) and improvements in the Iron range won’t cut it by themselves. A modest improvement might get him to Bush’s performance in 2004, but it won’t flip the state.

I wouldn't characterize the strong 3rd party swing as "left wing". If we look at the the swing from 2012-2016 among 3rd parties in Minnesota we get:

Johnson (Libertarian): +2.64%
McMullin (RW Indy): +1.80%
Stein (Green): +0.82%

Obviously Stein's voters are lefties, but she is only a small portion of the uptick in 3rd party support. McMullin is a NeverTrumper but his platform certainly isn't left. Johnson is more of a mixed bag, since his platform isn't left but he could have attracted left wing protest votes. But where did Johnson do best? Suburban Twin Cities counties, the sort of places that were the foundation of the GOP in Minnesota in the past. I'm skeptical that those folks are left wing. Never Trump sure, but not left wing.

Also the "spoiler factor" is largely a myth. 2016 exit polling showed people who voted third party would of overwhelmingly stayed home if they weren't on the ballot.

[The3rdParty]

Republicans can't win MN, 45 or 46 percent is about their ceiling right now. The twin cities, Rochester, and Duluth will keep it D. Other larger towns in the outstate also didn't slide in 2016 and all of the areas listed will trend D in 2020. Trump is only winning areas that are losing population. A black Muslim accused of domestic violence won by 4 points against a white guy. Keep dreaming republicans.