What will get the GOP over the top in Minnesota?

[sg0508]

There were close calls in 2000 and again in 2004.  2008 and 2012 weren't as competitive, and 2016 looked a lot like 2000.  Strong third party vote seems to eat away at Democratic support, although there was no large Nader factor in 2004.

The Midwest is slowly drifting more to the right, especially with social, blue collar conservatives, the ones who put Trump over the top.

What will it take to break the streak? As of now, it doesn't look like politically, 2020 will be that year either, but maybe in the future.

[TML]

It would probably take a "perfect storm" for this to happen:

-The Democratic candidate would have to be a pro-establishment candidate who promotes corporatist policies which turn off working-class voters;
-The Republican candidate would have to promote economic populism;
-The Republican candidate would have to win the NPV or lose it by no more than a fraction of a percent.

[Tartarus Sauce]

The problem for the GOP in Minnesota is that, in contrast to all the other Midwest states (other than Illinois, of course) that have been gradually trending their way, the primary metropolitan area is:

1. Over half the state population.

2. Growing faster than the state average.

3. Republicans are losing ground there.

The Twin Cities are a massive monkey wrench in the gears of engineering a Republican victory in a presidential election, as well as preventing a bona fide state level takeover. Minneapolis used to have a veritable tradition of Republicanism in its suburbs compared to the much more working-class, "ethnic white" heavy presence in St. Paul, but Hennepin County votes almost identically to Ramsey County now, and the GOP has taken a beating in the Twin Cities over the past decade. Yes, they've managed to consolidate their support in Anoka County, can fight Democrats to a draw in Washington County and Dakota County, and Scott County and Carver County have become the new redoubts of exurban conservatism, but none of that is worth much when Republicans can't even crack 30% in Hennepin or Ramsey.

The Twin Cities metro is drawing in a younger, college-educated, professionally oriented Millenial crowd that's causing the metro area to grow at a healthy rate in comparison to most other Midwest metros. As you can guess, this group votes heavily Democratic. Meanwhile, outstate, where Republicans are making significant headway into traditional Democratic areas, is hemorrhaging people at a rapid pace. The short-term effects essentially cancel each other out, the long-term effects, should the trend and politics remain constant, is one of Democrats increasing their support in the state. The reason the state was close in 2016 wasn't because Trump significantly improved on Romney's performance, he actually did slightly worse in terms of total percentage of the vote and essentially matched McCain's performance in 2008; rather, Clinton bled sizable chunks of left-wing voters to third-party candidates and underperfomed Obama. Those voters are returning home to the Democrats for the next several election cycles.

TL;DR: Democrats are shredding Republicans in their traditional turf of the growing Twin Cities suburbs faster than the Republicans can make up the deficit in traditional Democratic turf in shrinking outstate.

And if that all wasn't bad enough, the only other place that has seen noticeable growth outside the Twin Cities, Rochester, has also become much more competitive in Democrat's favor since Obama carried Olmsted county in 2008, the first time it went Democratic since 1964, and which has stayed Democratic since.

In order for a Republican to win Minnesota in a presidential election now, they would need to:

1. Flip the Iron Range.

2. Take back Rochester.

3. Further decimate Democrats south of the Twin Cities.

4. Have their base turnout in the west and along the St Cloud stretch of the Mississippi River to the northwest of the Twin Cities cranked up all the way to the max.

5. Rebound in the Twin Cities suburbs.

In other words, good luck, because luck is what they'll need.

[RaphaelDLG]

It starts bleeding residents like the rest of the Midwest.

Minnesota is one of the few rust belt states that notably hasn't lost electoral votes in the last few censuses (though it'll probably lose one this time).

[RINO Tom]

Until Trump is out of office, I think it will be quite hard.  I know Trump actually did better there than previous Republicans, but to win the state I think a GOPer needs both Romney margins in the TC suburbs AND Trump margins in the rural areas.  That requires a Republican who can come across as less technocratic than Romney and less offensive than Trump - pretty much what NC Yankee has been saying needs to be the future of the party.  That probably isn't happening in the next two cycles, IMO.

[Hammy]

Nothing short of suddenly low turnout would do it

[DC Al Fine]

Uh guys, we're talking about a state that Trump lost by 1.5%

Increased gains in the Iron Range or a small recovery in the Twin Cities would do it. No need to be talking about "perfect storms" or "good luck". A modest improvement on 2016 could do it.

[Tekken_Guy]

Probably make gains in the rural areas. As long as Trump is the leader of the GOP they are going to keep sinking in the Twin Cities suburbs.

[ElectionsGuy]

Uh guys, we're talking about a state that Trump lost by 1.5%

Increased gains in the Iron Range or a small recovery in the Twin Cities would do it. No need to be talking about "perfect storms" or "good luck". A modest improvement on 2016 could do it.

^^ Wow, a reasonable response.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Uh guys, we're talking about a state that Trump lost by 1.5%

Increased gains in the Iron Range or a small recovery in the Twin Cities would do it. No need to be talking about "perfect storms" or "good luck". A modest improvement on 2016 could do it.

He basically matched the performance range of the past two GOP candidates. He needs more than a modest improvement since the Democrat is very likely to consolidate left-wing voters that bled to third parties in 2016. A small Twin Cities rebound (which I think is unlikely) and improvements in the Iron range won’t cut it by themselves. A modest improvement might get him to Bush’s performance in 2004, but it won’t flip the state.

[DC Al Fine]

Uh guys, we're talking about a state that Trump lost by 1.5%

Increased gains in the Iron Range or a small recovery in the Twin Cities would do it. No need to be talking about "perfect storms" or "good luck". A modest improvement on 2016 could do it.

He basically matched the performance range of the past two GOP candidates. He needs more than a modest improvement since the Democrat is very likely to consolidate left-wing voters that bled to third parties in 2016. A small Twin Cities rebound (which I think is unlikely) and improvements in the Iron range won’t cut it by themselves. A modest improvement might get him to Bush’s performance in 2004, but it won’t flip the state.

I wouldn't characterize the strong 3rd party swing as "left wing". If we look at the the swing from 2012-2016 among 3rd parties in Minnesota we get:

Johnson (Libertarian): +2.64%
McMullin (RW Indy): +1.80%
Stein (Green): +0.82%

Obviously Stein's voters are lefties, but she is only a small portion of the uptick in 3rd party support. McMullin is a NeverTrumper but his platform certainly isn't left. Johnson is more of a mixed bag, since his platform isn't left but he could have attracted left wing protest votes. But where did Johnson do best? Suburban Twin Cities counties, the sort of places that were the foundation of the GOP in Minnesota in the past. I'm skeptical that those folks are left wing. Never Trump sure, but not left wing.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

It would probably take a "perfect storm" for this to happen:

-The Democratic candidate would have to be a pro-establishment candidate who promotes corporatist policies which turn off working-class voters;
-The Republican candidate would have to promote economic populism;
-The Republican candidate would have to win the NPV or lose it by no more than a fraction of a percent.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

PA like margins in rural areas
Holding Scott and Carver by double digits
Winning Anoka by 15-20

[completely dead account]

Until Trump is out of office, I think it will be quite hard.  I know Trump actually did better there than previous Republicans, but to win the state I think a GOPer needs both Romney margins in the TC suburbs AND Trump margins in the rural areas.  That requires a Republican who can come across as less technocratic than Romney and less offensive than Trump - pretty much what NC Yankee has been saying needs to be the future of the party.  That probably isn't happening in the next two cycles, IMO.

Trump indeed do much better than Romney. In fact, he would've WON if it wasn't for Hillary improving on Obama's margins of victories in Hennepin and Ramsey. Without those increases in the Twin Cities, Hillary would've lost.

[pops]

My answer would be liberal incompetence but apparently every Democrat here will be a Democrat no matter what happens. If Keith Ellison raped someone live on TV and said it's okay because he's Muslim he still would've won. This sounds over the top but he beat at least two of his exes and the left refuses to believe him. On top of that, Democrats have basically batista bombed northern Minnesota and they vote Democrat because their education is so bad that they just vote how their parents voted. My political instincts say we're trending red, but c'mon, we were the only state disabled enough to not vote for Reagan. Democrats have controlled virtually every part of this state since the 70s, things have gotten drastically worse for us, but STILL the #progressives #metoo people are too dumb to realize why they can't afford to move out of their parents house (a common problem in northern MN).

[Jags]

My answer would be liberal incompetence but apparently every Democrat here will be a Democrat no matter what happens. If Keith Ellison raped someone live on TV and said it's okay because he's Muslim he still would've won. This sounds over the top but he beat at least two of his exes and the left refuses to believe him. On top of that, Democrats have basically batista bombed northern Minnesota and they vote Democrat because their education is so bad that they just vote how their parents voted. My political instincts say we're trending red, but c'mon, we were the only state disabled enough to not vote for Reagan. Democrats have controlled virtually every part of this state since the 70s, things have gotten drastically worse for us, but STILL the #progressives #metoo people are too dumb to realize why they can't afford to move out of their parents house (a common problem in northern MN).

The Ellison thing is another nothing burger created by the right, thats why he won. And lol at democrats being the ones not educated.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

A red wave in 2032.

[pops]

My answer would be liberal incompetence but apparently every Democrat here will be a Democrat no matter what happens. If Keith Ellison raped someone live on TV and said it's okay because he's Muslim he still would've won. This sounds over the top but he beat at least two of his exes and the left refuses to believe him. On top of that, Democrats have basically batista bombed northern Minnesota and they vote Democrat because their education is so bad that they just vote how their parents voted. My political instincts say we're trending red, but c'mon, we were the only state disabled enough to not vote for Reagan. Democrats have controlled virtually every part of this state since the 70s, things have gotten drastically worse for us, but STILL the #progressives #metoo people are too dumb to realize why they can't afford to move out of their parents house (a common problem in northern MN).

The Ellison thing is another nothing burger created by the right, thats why he won. And lol at democrats being the ones not educated.

Have you ever been to Minneapolis, St. Paul, or the iron range? If so, how do you stomach calling that "well-educated"? The only people well-educated anywhere in America are raised in suburban America.

[Politician]

My answer would be liberal incompetence but apparently every Democrat here will be a Democrat no matter what happens. If Keith Ellison raped someone live on TV and said it's okay because he's Muslim he still would've won. This sounds over the top but he beat at least two of his exes and the left refuses to believe him. On top of that, Democrats have basically batista bombed northern Minnesota and they vote Democrat because their education is so bad that they just vote how their parents voted. My political instincts say we're trending red, but c'mon, we were the only state disabled enough to not vote for Reagan. Democrats have controlled virtually every part of this state since the 70s, things have gotten drastically worse for us, but STILL the #progressives #metoo people are too dumb to realize why they can't afford to move out of their parents house (a common problem in northern MN).

The Ellison thing is another nothing burger created by the right, thats why he won. And lol at democrats being the ones not educated.

Have you ever been to Minneapolis, St. Paul, or the iron range? If so, how do you stomach calling that "well-educated"? The only people well-educated anywhere in America are raised in suburban America.

Ah yes, the suburban America that Democrats are winning big in

[pops]

My answer would be liberal incompetence but apparently every Democrat here will be a Democrat no matter what happens. If Keith Ellison raped someone live on TV and said it's okay because he's Muslim he still would've won. This sounds over the top but he beat at least two of his exes and the left refuses to believe him. On top of that, Democrats have basically batista bombed northern Minnesota and they vote Democrat because their education is so bad that they just vote how their parents voted. My political instincts say we're trending red, but c'mon, we were the only state disabled enough to not vote for Reagan. Democrats have controlled virtually every part of this state since the 70s, things have gotten drastically worse for us, but STILL the #progressives #metoo people are too dumb to realize why they can't afford to move out of their parents house (a common problem in northern MN).

The Ellison thing is another nothing burger created by the right, thats why he won. And lol at democrats being the ones not educated.

Have you ever been to Minneapolis, St. Paul, or the iron range? If so, how do you stomach calling that "well-educated"? The only people well-educated anywhere in America are raised in suburban America.

Ah yes, the suburban America that Democrats are winning big in

We are talking about two very different suburbs

[President Phil Scott]

It would probably take a "perfect storm" for this to happen:

-The Democratic candidate would have to be a pro-establishment candidate who promotes corporatist policies which turn off working-class voters;
-The Republican candidate would have to promote economic populism;
-The Republican candidate would have to win the NPV or lose it by no more than a fraction of a percent.

I think starting in 2020 any one of these should be enough for the GOP nominee.

Yes Trump only met the first 2 but it's swing was huge toward that party of his.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My answer would be liberal incompetence but apparently every Democrat here will be a Democrat no matter what happens. If Keith Ellison raped someone live on TV and said it's okay because he's Muslim he still would've won. This sounds over the top but he beat at least two of his exes and the left refuses to believe him. On top of that, Democrats have basically batista bombed northern Minnesota and they vote Democrat because their education is so bad that they just vote how their parents voted. My political instincts say we're trending red, but c'mon, we were the only state disabled enough to not vote for Reagan. Democrats have controlled virtually every part of this state since the 70s, things have gotten drastically worse for us, but STILL the #progressives #metoo people are too dumb to realize why they can't afford to move out of their parents house (a common problem in northern MN).

The Ellison thing is another nothing burger created by the right, thats why he won. And lol at democrats being the ones not educated.

Have you ever been to Minneapolis, St. Paul, or the iron range? If so, how do you stomach calling that "well-educated"? The only people well-educated anywhere in America are raised in suburban America.

Almost half (48.4%) of Minneapolis residents have a college degree. Its objectively a well educated city. St. Paul is too at almost 40%.

[catographer]

I wonder if 2016 was the GOP's ceiling in MN. Dem gains in Twin Cities may be enough of a bulwark against a statewide GOP majority.

[morgankingsley]

Win seven out of the eight districts.

Or adopt the congressional method they originally wanted to adopt. One electoral vote per district, and two for the one with the most districts. In that standard, he would have won Minnesota in 2016 with 7 electoral votes to Clinton 3

[Annatar]

A continuation of the republican trend outside of Hennepin and Ramsey would flip the state. Trump got 58% of the 2 party vote outside of Hennepin and Ramsey, he got 30% overall in those 2 counties. Minnesota sans Hennepin and Ramsey had 2 million votes in 2016, Hennepin and Ramsey produced 0.95 million votes.

Basically one way of looking at it is 1/3 of the vote in Minnesota comes from Hennepin and Ramsey, the dems got 70% of the 2 party vote there. The rest of the state produces 2/3 of the vote where Trump got 58% of the 2 party vote, if the rest of the state starts voting even 60% Republican which it might in 2020 and Hennepin and Ramsey remain 70% democratic, then Minnesota would vote Republican.  If Minnesota outside of Hennepin and Ramsey were to start voting 65% republican which it might by the 2020's, then the GOP would win the state by 7.5% and Minnesota would become the new Ohio.


The fundamental maths problem for the democrats in Minnesota is only 1/3 of the vote comes from Hennepin and Ramsey so if they gain 1% in those counties for every 1% they lose elsewhere, they sustain a net loss of 0.33%. In addition the dems are closer to maxing out Hennepin and Ramsey then Republicans are to maxing out the rest of the state.