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  NH-UNH: Tied race
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Author Topic: NH-UNH: Tied race  (Read 3553 times)
Cory Booker
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« Reply #50 on: November 05, 2018, 07:44:54 am »

It's a blue wave, the 272 freiwal states Iowa, NH, IL, WI, CO, NM,vNV, WI and MI, all except MD and VT are leaning Dem😀
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NHI
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« Reply #51 on: November 05, 2018, 07:55:21 am »

Wow. Didn't see this poll. I'm a little skeptical since it's UNH poll. Last time Van Ostern was up and Sununu won by two, but this is interesting... She could pull it off tomorrow night
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Free Bird
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« Reply #52 on: November 05, 2018, 07:58:56 am »

Isn't the same pollster that had Van Ostern up by double digits at this time in 2016?
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #53 on: November 05, 2018, 08:37:19 am »

NH is part of the 272 freiwal that Dems have solidified. If Sue Minter and Rashurn Baker were on the ballot, they could of won as well
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FalloutBoy97
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« Reply #54 on: November 05, 2018, 10:53:46 am »

UNH is crap but if this happens, Im moving right to TX after I graduate next month

...you want to be represented in the Senate by Beto?
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #55 on: November 05, 2018, 11:18:35 am »


LOL, this would certainly be your biggest coup yet. Wink
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sawx
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« Reply #56 on: November 05, 2018, 02:24:47 pm »

Oh yes, I forgot:

2010: Lynch +9 (Lynch +8)
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Politician
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« Reply #57 on: November 05, 2018, 03:36:33 pm »

If Kelly can pull off a win in NH then Dems could've absolutely taken MD & MA even VT with better candidates.
Baker would not lose regardless of how big the wave is.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #58 on: November 05, 2018, 03:50:49 pm »

If Kelly pulls this off, IndyRep is officially our god of New Hampshire elections. He'll need to keep his Democratic New Hampshire avatar to transcend into his newly divine form.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #59 on: November 05, 2018, 04:21:47 pm »

From the ground it sounds like this is a D surge...
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Totalitarian Contrarian
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« Reply #60 on: November 05, 2018, 05:47:58 pm »

They waaaaaay oversampled Democrats in this poll compared to their earlier ones as well.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #61 on: November 05, 2018, 07:04:58 pm »

I hope Chris ends up having to look for a Sununew job. Please let us have two Governor Kellys- Laura and Molly!
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NHI
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« Reply #62 on: November 05, 2018, 07:14:47 pm »

Dems oversampled, but his deficit among women voters is quite large...

I honestly don't know how to read this one. Part of me thinks he wins -- narrowly but I can also see her squeaking by.
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sawx
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« Reply #63 on: November 05, 2018, 07:35:13 pm »

Dems oversampled, but his deficit among women voters is quite large...

I honestly don't know how to read this one. Part of me thinks he wins -- narrowly but I can also see her squeaking by.

Party ID and registration are two dramatically different things. Registration is still largely independent, and it's only natural some of those indies "magically" identify with wherever the winds of change blow.
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NHI
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« Reply #64 on: November 05, 2018, 07:37:33 pm »

Dems oversampled, but his deficit among women voters is quite large...

I honestly don't know how to read this one. Part of me thinks he wins -- narrowly but I can also see her squeaking by.

Party ID and registration are two dramatically different things. Registration is still largely independent.

True. Where do you put the race?

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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #65 on: November 05, 2018, 08:42:40 pm »

UNH is crap but if this happens, Im moving right to TX after I graduate next month
Hopefully youre greeted by Senator Beto
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Swing State Ohio
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« Reply #66 on: November 05, 2018, 10:27:46 pm »

I've changed it from Safe to Likely R.
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🅰 🦀 @k 🎂
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« Reply #67 on: November 06, 2018, 10:43:19 am »

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Cory Booker
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« Reply #68 on: November 07, 2018, 06:03:56 am »

Congrats Gov Sununu=D
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Politician
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« Reply #69 on: November 07, 2018, 03:35:16 pm »

Junk poll!
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #70 on: November 07, 2018, 05:38:54 pm »

Yes, I was completely wrong about this race, and theres no way to spin this. The only thing I will say is that even though NH is a state that will certainly elect liberal to moderate Republican governors at times, I dont expect Sununu's success to be replicated at the federal level if he decides to run against Jeanne Shaheen. Senate races are a lot more partisan than gubernatorial elections, and lets not forget that NH Republicans were wiped off the face of the earth in virtually every other race in the state (they lost both congressional districts in a landslide, lost the Executive Council, the State Senate, and the NH House). Its hardly a coincidence that Chris Sununu did A LOT worse than Baker, Scott, and even Hogan(!) yesterday despite running in a more competitive state, and it also shows you just how high the Democratic floor in NH is. So while I agree that NH is more winnable for Republicans than CO/NV/VA, I wouldnt go as far as to rate it a "Toss-up" for 2020. Safe D? Certainly not, but Id say its closer to Lean or maybe Likely D (depending on the environment and the Democratic candidate) than Toss-up.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #71 on: November 07, 2018, 10:55:12 pm »

Sununu will lose in 2020, hopefully Pappas runs against him
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NHI
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« Reply #72 on: November 07, 2018, 11:34:52 pm »

Sununu will lose in 2020, hopefully Pappas runs against him
My guess is he runs for Senate and loses
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