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  AZ: OH Predictive- McSally +1
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Author Topic: AZ: OH Predictive- McSally +1  (Read 2292 times)
New York Dude
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« on: November 05, 2018, 12:20:51 am »

McSally-49
Sinema-48

They previously had McSally up 52-45. I'd say there is a very high chance they're herding to get close to the actual result.

https://www.abc15.com/news/state/poll-martha-mcsally-has-one-point-lead-over-kyrsten-sinema-days-before-election
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Councilor Zaybay
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2018, 12:23:20 am »

But I thought the data showed that McSally was up by 10?! Isnt that what the director said?!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2018, 12:25:01 am »

This is what we call a last minute "don't want to look stupid revision." Like that poll that showed Trump crushing Hillary in VA, only to rush one out the day before the election showing her ahead.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2018, 12:30:23 am »

The way this pollster casually promotes mcsally on twitter is concerning, something to look at when analyzing at this poll.

https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1056608283723583489?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1052354755966582784?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051993626320896000?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051967203224969216?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051905978398990336?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1050558419482992640?s=21
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pppolitics
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2018, 12:33:31 am »

This should be labeled as a (R) pollster.
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Joshua
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2018, 12:38:08 am »

The way this pollster casually promotes mcsally on twitter is concerning, something to look at when analyzing at this poll.

https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1056608283723583489?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1052354755966582784?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051993626320896000?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051967203224969216?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051905978398990336?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1050558419482992640?s=21

#Yikes. They have McSweaty +1 two days before the election?

Titanium Sinema.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2018, 07:06:11 am »

LOL this is the same pollster that got legitimately mad at everyone on Twitter for believing the 95% of other polls that had Sinema tied/up.
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SN2903
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2018, 08:23:30 am »

McSally is clearly surging
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2018, 08:24:14 am »

Margin of error
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2018, 08:25:16 am »

McSally is clearly surging

You say this on the poll that has McSally doing 6 points worse than the last poll from the same firm.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2018, 08:35:10 am »

McSally is clearly surging

You say this on the poll that has McSally doing 6 points worse than the last poll from the same firm.

She is surging downwards, you silly.
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2016
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2018, 09:17:13 am »

LOL this is the same pollster that got legitimately mad at everyone on Twitter for believing the 95% of other polls that had Sinema tied/up.

They are right to be mad as many Polls had Sinema 3-6 Points which is wrong.
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2016
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2018, 10:00:16 am »

Press Release
http://createsend.com/t/i-9C28BF62A01126BA2540EF23F30FEDED

KEY
88% of Sinema's Supporters have already returned their Ballot
Only 70% of McSally's Supporters have returned theirs

...so this Race indeed comes down to E-DAY Turnout.
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History505
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2018, 10:02:51 am »

LOL this is the same pollster that got legitimately mad at everyone on Twitter for believing the 95% of other polls that had Sinema tied/up.

They are right to be mad as many Polls had Sinema 3-6 Points which is wrong.
Might just be right.
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Webnicz
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2018, 10:07:08 am »

When OH isnít promoting mcsally on twitter they are touting their recent +7 mcsally poll, OH is very defensive on twitter so I want someone to ask them what on earth happened in a few days that made mcsally loose 6 points???
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2018, 10:09:32 am »

McSally is clearly surging

You say this on the poll that has McSally doing 6 points worse than the last poll from the same firm.

She is surging downwards, you silly.

SINEMENTUM!!!
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Councilor Zaybay
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« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2018, 10:10:27 am »

Press Release
http://createsend.com/t/i-9C28BF62A01126BA2540EF23F30FEDED

KEY
88% of Sinema's Supporters have already returned their Ballot
Only 70% of McSally's Supporters have returned theirs

...so this Race indeed comes down to E-DAY Turnout.

....you do realize that barely anyone in AZ votes on E-Day. In 2016, 90% of ballot were cast early. I suspect that number will be lower this year, considering its a midterm.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2018, 10:51:26 am »

Press Release
http://createsend.com/t/i-9C28BF62A01126BA2540EF23F30FEDED

KEY
88% of Sinema's Supporters have already returned their Ballot
Only 70% of McSally's Supporters have returned theirs

...so this Race indeed comes down to E-DAY Turnout.

....you do realize that barely anyone in AZ votes on E-Day. In 2016, 90% of ballot were cast early. I suspect that number will be lower this year, considering its a midterm.

If this is true, that would be another indicator of a Sinema victory tomorrow.
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2016
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2018, 12:45:57 pm »

Press Release
http://createsend.com/t/i-9C28BF62A01126BA2540EF23F30FEDED

KEY
88% of Sinema's Supporters have already returned their Ballot
Only 70% of McSally's Supporters have returned theirs

...so this Race indeed comes down to E-DAY Turnout.

....you do realize that barely anyone in AZ votes on E-Day. In 2016, 90% of ballot were cast early. I suspect that number will be lower this year, considering its a midterm.

If this is true, that would be another indicator of a Sinema victory tomorrow.

The Problem I have is that most of the Polls having Sinema ahead in the Early Vote. I just don't by that at all. I realize that Republicans can also vote for Sinema. That being said, the GOP has a 118K Raw Ballot Advantage. EVEN if let's say Sinema wins Democrats 95-5 and McSally wins Republicans 90-10 and takes Independents 58-31 like Marist says Sinema would still lose the Election by 10,000-15,000 Votes. AND Sinema will not win Indies 2 to 1 I can tell you that.
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Councilor Zaybay
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2018, 12:47:40 pm »

Press Release
http://createsend.com/t/i-9C28BF62A01126BA2540EF23F30FEDED

KEY
88% of Sinema's Supporters have already returned their Ballot
Only 70% of McSally's Supporters have returned theirs

...so this Race indeed comes down to E-DAY Turnout.

....you do realize that barely anyone in AZ votes on E-Day. In 2016, 90% of ballot were cast early. I suspect that number will be lower this year, considering its a midterm.

If this is true, that would be another indicator of a Sinema victory tomorrow.

The Problem I have is that most of the Polls having Sinema ahead in the Early Vote. I just don't by that at all. I realize that Republicans can also vote for Sinema. That being said, the GOP has a 118K Raw Ballot Advantage. EVEN if let's say Sinema wins Democrats 95-5 and McSally wins Republicans 90-10 and takes Independents 58-31 like Marist says Sinema would still lose the Election by 10,000-15,000 Votes. AND Sinema will not win Indies 2 to 1 I can tell you that.

Ah, I see, your mistake is the D and R numbers for crossover. The Ds are predicted to get 90-10 for D votes(there are some ancestral D areas in AZ), the Rs, however, are predicted to get 80-20 of the R vote. The Indie numbers are close to what the polls say so far.

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Webnicz
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« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2018, 03:04:21 pm »

Press Release
http://createsend.com/t/i-9C28BF62A01126BA2540EF23F30FEDED

KEY
88% of Sinema's Supporters have already returned their Ballot
Only 70% of McSally's Supporters have returned theirs

...so this Race indeed comes down to E-DAY Turnout.

....you do realize that barely anyone in AZ votes on E-Day. In 2016, 90% of ballot were cast early. I suspect that number will be lower this year, considering its a midterm.

If this is true, that would be another indicator of a Sinema victory tomorrow.

The Problem I have is that most of the Polls having Sinema ahead in the Early Vote. I just don't by that at all. I realize that Republicans can also vote for Sinema. That being said, the GOP has a 118K Raw Ballot Advantage. EVEN if let's say Sinema wins Democrats 95-5 and McSally wins Republicans 90-10 and takes Independents 58-31 like Marist says Sinema would still lose the Election by 10,000-15,000 Votes. AND Sinema will not win Indies 2 to 1 I can tell you that.

As familiar I am with Arizona elections, I have to say 2016 is making a valid point bc truth is early returns donít show anything good for the dems. We really will have to see what kinds of people show up on Election Day to turn in their ballots(lots of people do this who didnít mail them in time but we need to see what kinds of people do that. We know people will show up to vote, but we need to see who shows up to turn in their early ballots.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: November 05, 2018, 03:23:09 pm »

Press Release
http://createsend.com/t/i-9C28BF62A01126BA2540EF23F30FEDED

KEY
88% of Sinema's Supporters have already returned their Ballot
Only 70% of McSally's Supporters have returned theirs

...so this Race indeed comes down to E-DAY Turnout.

....you do realize that barely anyone in AZ votes on E-Day. In 2016, 90% of ballot were cast early. I suspect that number will be lower this year, considering its a midterm.

If this is true, that would be another indicator of a Sinema victory tomorrow.

The Problem I have is that most of the Polls having Sinema ahead in the Early Vote. I just don't by that at all. I realize that Republicans can also vote for Sinema. That being said, the GOP has a 118K Raw Ballot Advantage. EVEN if let's say Sinema wins Democrats 95-5 and McSally wins Republicans 90-10 and takes Independents 58-31 like Marist says Sinema would still lose the Election by 10,000-15,000 Votes. AND Sinema will not win Indies 2 to 1 I can tell you that.

As familiar I am with Arizona elections, I have to say 2016 is making a valid point bc truth is early returns donít show anything good for the dems. We really will have to see what kinds of people show up on Election Day to turn in their ballots(lots of people do this who didnít mail them in time but we need to see what kinds of people do that. We know people will show up to vote, but we need to see who shows up to turn in their early ballots.

"early returns dont show anything good for Dems"

You. Do. Not. Know. How. People. Voted.

Again, for the 10000000000000th time, just look at AZ-08. If we were going by early vote, Lesko would've won by 20%.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #22 on: November 05, 2018, 05:11:30 pm »

Press Release
http://createsend.com/t/i-9C28BF62A01126BA2540EF23F30FEDED

KEY
88% of Sinema's Supporters have already returned their Ballot
Only 70% of McSally's Supporters have returned theirs

...so this Race indeed comes down to E-DAY Turnout.

....you do realize that barely anyone in AZ votes on E-Day. In 2016, 90% of ballot were cast early. I suspect that number will be lower this year, considering its a midterm.

If this is true, that would be another indicator of a Sinema victory tomorrow.

The Problem I have is that most of the Polls having Sinema ahead in the Early Vote. I just don't by that at all. I realize that Republicans can also vote for Sinema. That being said, the GOP has a 118K Raw Ballot Advantage. EVEN if let's say Sinema wins Democrats 95-5 and McSally wins Republicans 90-10 and takes Independents 58-31 like Marist says Sinema would still lose the Election by 10,000-15,000 Votes. AND Sinema will not win Indies 2 to 1 I can tell you that.

As familiar I am with Arizona elections, I have to say 2016 is making a valid point bc truth is early returns donít show anything good for the dems. We really will have to see what kinds of people show up on Election Day to turn in their ballots(lots of people do this who didnít mail them in time but we need to see what kinds of people do that. We know people will show up to vote, but we need to see who shows up to turn in their early ballots.

This is also true. Election Day is still important, as 2016 proved, though maybe not to the extent that it used to be. If I recall, the Election Day vote is how Trump won in 2016. I believe it provided him his margins of victory in states such as Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. McSally could still pull off a narrow win based upon that vote, but as I've said, other numbers indicate that Sinema is favored. The facts that she is winning a solid majority of independents and is cutting more deeply into the Republican vote than McSally is with the Democratic vote lead me to that conclusion.
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2016
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« Reply #23 on: November 05, 2018, 05:30:11 pm »

Press Release
http://createsend.com/t/i-9C28BF62A01126BA2540EF23F30FEDED

KEY
88% of Sinema's Supporters have already returned their Ballot
Only 70% of McSally's Supporters have returned theirs

...so this Race indeed comes down to E-DAY Turnout.

....you do realize that barely anyone in AZ votes on E-Day. In 2016, 90% of ballot were cast early. I suspect that number will be lower this year, considering its a midterm.

If this is true, that would be another indicator of a Sinema victory tomorrow.

The Problem I have is that most of the Polls having Sinema ahead in the Early Vote. I just don't by that at all. I realize that Republicans can also vote for Sinema. That being said, the GOP has a 118K Raw Ballot Advantage. EVEN if let's say Sinema wins Democrats 95-5 and McSally wins Republicans 90-10 and takes Independents 58-31 like Marist says Sinema would still lose the Election by 10,000-15,000 Votes. AND Sinema will not win Indies 2 to 1 I can tell you that.

As familiar I am with Arizona elections, I have to say 2016 is making a valid point bc truth is early returns donít show anything good for the dems. We really will have to see what kinds of people show up on Election Day to turn in their ballots(lots of people do this who didnít mail them in time but we need to see what kinds of people do that. We know people will show up to vote, but we need to see who shows up to turn in their early ballots.

This is also true. Election Day is still important, as 2016 proved, though maybe not to the extent that it used to be. If I recall, the Election Day vote is how Trump won in 2016. I believe it provided him his margins of victory in states such as Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. McSally could still pull off a narrow win based upon that vote, but as I've said, other numbers indicate that Sinema is favored. The facts that she is winning a solid majority of independents and is cutting more deeply into the Republican vote than McSally is with the Democratic vote lead me to that conclusion.

It depends on how big Sinema's lead with Indies is. If it's under 10 Points Sinema loses, if it's above that she likely wins.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2018, 05:47:48 pm »

Press Release
http://createsend.com/t/i-9C28BF62A01126BA2540EF23F30FEDED

KEY
88% of Sinema's Supporters have already returned their Ballot
Only 70% of McSally's Supporters have returned theirs

...so this Race indeed comes down to E-DAY Turnout.

....you do realize that barely anyone in AZ votes on E-Day. In 2016, 90% of ballot were cast early. I suspect that number will be lower this year, considering its a midterm.

If this is true, that would be another indicator of a Sinema victory tomorrow.

The Problem I have is that most of the Polls having Sinema ahead in the Early Vote. I just don't by that at all. I realize that Republicans can also vote for Sinema. That being said, the GOP has a 118K Raw Ballot Advantage. EVEN if let's say Sinema wins Democrats 95-5 and McSally wins Republicans 90-10 and takes Independents 58-31 like Marist says Sinema would still lose the Election by 10,000-15,000 Votes. AND Sinema will not win Indies 2 to 1 I can tell you that.

As familiar I am with Arizona elections, I have to say 2016 is making a valid point bc truth is early returns donít show anything good for the dems. We really will have to see what kinds of people show up on Election Day to turn in their ballots(lots of people do this who didnít mail them in time but we need to see what kinds of people do that. We know people will show up to vote, but we need to see who shows up to turn in their early ballots.

This is also true. Election Day is still important, as 2016 proved, though maybe not to the extent that it used to be. If I recall, the Election Day vote is how Trump won in 2016. I believe it provided him his margins of victory in states such as Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. McSally could still pull off a narrow win based upon that vote, but as I've said, other numbers indicate that Sinema is favored. The facts that she is winning a solid majority of independents and is cutting more deeply into the Republican vote than McSally is with the Democratic vote lead me to that conclusion.

It depends on how big Sinema's lead with Indies is. If it's under 10 Points Sinema loses, if it's above that she likely wins.

I saw a statistic last week (which I mentioned previously), that had Sinema winning 58% of independents. I'm not sure if that was accurate, or if it is accurate now. That is why the previous tag line on the Early Vote megathread is so relevant: Early Vote results do not tell you how the election will go. A good example of this is Tennessee, where some on here still entertain a vain hope of a Bredesen victory, and where Early Vote numbers have shown Republicans far ahead of Democrats in terms of turnout. If Bredesen were to somehow win, that would indicate a pretty broad defection of Republican voters.

As for Arizona, you are right about the margin with independents. Since Republicans have outpaced Democrats in the Early Voting by close to 10% there, Sinema will need a strong performance with that group (independents) and among the Democratic base to score a narrow victory. Another reason why I think she will ultimately prevail is because her political base is in Maricopa County, and McSally seems to be weaker there than elsewhere in Arizona, if I'm reading the numbers correctly.
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