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June 18, 2019, 09:41:44 am
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  AZ: OH Predictive- McSally +1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: AZ: OH Predictive- McSally +1  (Read 2245 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: November 05, 2018, 07:06:11 am »

LOL this is the same pollster that got legitimately mad at everyone on Twitter for believing the 95% of other polls that had Sinema tied/up.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2018, 03:23:09 pm »

Press Release
http://createsend.com/t/i-9C28BF62A01126BA2540EF23F30FEDED

KEY
88% of Sinema's Supporters have already returned their Ballot
Only 70% of McSally's Supporters have returned theirs

...so this Race indeed comes down to E-DAY Turnout.

....you do realize that barely anyone in AZ votes on E-Day. In 2016, 90% of ballot were cast early. I suspect that number will be lower this year, considering its a midterm.

If this is true, that would be another indicator of a Sinema victory tomorrow.

The Problem I have is that most of the Polls having Sinema ahead in the Early Vote. I just don't by that at all. I realize that Republicans can also vote for Sinema. That being said, the GOP has a 118K Raw Ballot Advantage. EVEN if let's say Sinema wins Democrats 95-5 and McSally wins Republicans 90-10 and takes Independents 58-31 like Marist says Sinema would still lose the Election by 10,000-15,000 Votes. AND Sinema will not win Indies 2 to 1 I can tell you that.

As familiar I am with Arizona elections, I have to say 2016 is making a valid point bc truth is early returns donít show anything good for the dems. We really will have to see what kinds of people show up on Election Day to turn in their ballots(lots of people do this who didnít mail them in time but we need to see what kinds of people do that. We know people will show up to vote, but we need to see who shows up to turn in their early ballots.

"early returns dont show anything good for Dems"

You. Do. Not. Know. How. People. Voted.

Again, for the 10000000000000th time, just look at AZ-08. If we were going by early vote, Lesko would've won by 20%.
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