MO NBC/Marist: McCaskill +3
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  MO NBC/Marist: McCaskill +3
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Author Topic: MO NBC/Marist: McCaskill +3  (Read 5472 times)
OneJ
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« Reply #50 on: November 09, 2018, 07:17:34 AM »

Yeah, so much for these high-quality Marist polls. Looks like Republican polls/internals were more accurate in this race.

Also, can we stop pretending that Remington is a pollster that’s biased in favor of Republicans or just cooks up R-friendly numbers? They actually underestimated Trump and Greitens in 2016 and now Hawley this year.


Yeah I realize now they're like the R-version of PPP
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IceSpear
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« Reply #51 on: November 09, 2018, 07:21:33 AM »

Yeah, so much for these high-quality Marist polls. Looks like Republican polls/internals were more accurate in this race.

Also, can we stop pretending that Remington is a pollster that’s biased in favor of Republicans or just cooks up R-friendly numbers? They actually underestimated Trump and Greitens in 2016 and now Hawley this year.

Yeah, Marist was total garbage. Basically every poll they conducted was massively skewed in favor of the Dems across the board. Except for Nevada of course, where it was massively skewed in favor of the Republicans. lol
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #52 on: November 09, 2018, 10:01:23 AM »

It could also be that Marist was right in showing that McCaskill was gaining last-minute momentum, but ultimately, that momentum wasn't enough to overcome Hawley's (always existing) momentum.
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Politician
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« Reply #53 on: November 09, 2018, 10:01:59 AM »

Why was Marist so wrong this year, btw? Except in Michigan and Minnesota, they were pretty far off in some states.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #54 on: November 09, 2018, 01:16:51 PM »

Yeah, so much for these high-quality Marist polls. Looks like Republican polls/internals were more accurate in this race.

Also, can we stop pretending that Remington is a pollster that’s biased in favor of Republicans or just cooks up R-friendly numbers? They actually underestimated Trump and Greitens in 2016 and now Hawley this year.

Yeah, Marist was total garbage. Basically every poll they conducted was massively skewed in favor of the Dems across the board. Except for Nevada of course, where it was massively skewed in favor of the Republicans. lol

And Texas was slightly republican skewed too.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #55 on: November 09, 2018, 07:47:06 PM »

Why was Marist so wrong this year, btw? Except in Michigan and Minnesota, they were pretty far off in some states.

This post from the 2020 board probably explains it almost entirely:

If they don't weight for college education their poll is meaningless. As it turned out Marist wasn't weighting for college education despite learning how important it is in 2016. Marquette for example did weight it and their poll turned out perfect.
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Xing
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« Reply #56 on: November 09, 2018, 07:57:21 PM »

Pollsters certainly have their work cut out for them. While a lot of people might be tempted to say that we just shouldn't trust the polls, we're basically shooting in the dark in some races if we ignore them entirely.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #57 on: November 09, 2018, 10:28:45 PM »

Pollsters certainly have their work cut out for them. While a lot of people might be tempted to say that we just shouldn't trust the polls, we're basically shooting in the dark in some races if we ignore them entirely.

I mean its time to start unskewing the polls by looking at a presidents approval rating at this point and adding fundamentals. Unskewing crosstabs are bad unless they look like complete bullsh**t like Trafalgars donnely +12 poll but unskewing based on approvals should be considered more.
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