Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

How are the races in KY and IN going to be reported this year? I know in presidential years that they both close their polls at 7, to accommodate the central time zone areas. Will they wait until 7 for the western part of their states, or will the eastern results come in at 6, while the central ones come in at 7?

[pppolitics]

Good news for the Dems in FL is that Panhandle turnout is quite low so far, especially in the most hurricane-damaged counties.

Democrats should start a new campaign and encourage panhandle to secede from Florida and join Alabama.

[Baki]

How are the races in KY and IN going to be reported this year? I know in presidential years that they both close their polls at 7, to accommodate the central time zone areas. Will they wait until 7 for the western part of their states, or will the eastern results come in at 6, while the central ones come in at 7?

Probably going to report the numbers as they come in, but hold off on any projections untill all the polls have closed in those states.

[OBD]

Looks like 538 will have a neat real-time forecast. Dems +36 in House and Rs +1 in Senate for now.

[Gass3268]

Steve Schale said Florida is looking where he thought it would be (R+2).

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1059874137009803264

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Good Night !

Good night! I hope you awake to good exit polls!

[Oryxslayer]

Steve Schale said Florida is looking where he thought it would be (R+2).

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1059874137009803264

Important to note that this is Eday voters, not overall results or the end margin (FL has a lot of registered dixiecrats and RINOs). But it is basically what we new from before, unless a unusual number of partisans break ranks, Florida as usual will come down to the Independent vote.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Steve Schale said Florida is looking where he thought it would be (R+2).

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1059874137009803264

It’s weird how that bolds well for Nelson and Gillum

[RI]

A cool tracker of turnout in Philadelphia by ward: https://jtannen.github.io/election_tracker.html

Based on self-reporting though, so perhaps take it with a grain of salt.

[Bojack Horseman]

I'm a pollworker at my local precinct and the line has been steady for the entire 3 hours we've been open.

Where do you live in Michigan?

Flint exurbs

[Pollster]

Anecdotal, but a very non-political friend of mine who moved out of Texas 10+ years ago but is still registered there said that a Beto volunteer phone banked her yesterday.

The O'Rourke ground game could be severely underestimated if this is the norm.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

A cool tracker of turnout in Philadelphia by ward: https://jtannen.github.io/election_tracker.html

Based on self-reporting though, so perhaps take it with a grain of salt.

It looks like the one ward that is colored yellow with disproportionately high turnout is the ward with the University of Pennsylvania. So that looks like probably very good student/youth turnout there FWIW.

Of course they must all be voting R because Trump is a Wharton alum.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Anecdotal, but a very non-political friend of mine who moved out of Texas 10+ years ago but is still registered there said that a Beto volunteer phone banked her yesterday.

The O'Rourke ground game could be severely underestimated if this is the norm.

You can look at how many calls they have made (20 million) and how many doors they have knocked on for GOTV in each individual precinct here:

https://win.betofortexas.com/?source=plantowin

1.6 million GOTV doors knocked, although that goes back to even a bit before the beginning of the early vote period.

[Skye]

Anecdotal, but a very non-political friend of mine who moved out of Texas 10+ years ago but is still registered there said that a Beto volunteer phone banked her yesterday.

The O'Rourke ground game could be severely underestimated if this is the norm.

You can look at how many calls they have made (20 million) and how many doors they have knocked on for GOTV in each individual precinct here:

https://win.betofortexas.com/?source=plantowin

1.6 million GOTV doors knocked, although that goes back to even a bit before the beginning of the early vote period.

I do have to say that O'Rourke's campaign does seem to have a strong and impressive organization. Maybe that's enough to deliver higher than expected numbers for him.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Just voted, the polling place wasn’t packed, but this was definitely the most people I’ve seen there.  I’ve never had even a five minute line before and there was one today.  Terrific weather in Franklin County btw.

[Classic Conservative]

I just went to the polls with my grandmother and we were at 42% of 2016 turnout. This is an Obama/Trump district.

[WV222]

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/06/indiana-election-2018-indystar-live-coverage-braun-donnelly/1749126002/

Johnson County, Indiana has had server issues today with voting. Voting seems to be back online now there, however, the election board is seeking a court order to extend the voting times till after 6 pm.


IN-9 is in this county.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Anecdotal, but a very non-political friend of mine who moved out of Texas 10+ years ago but is still registered there said that a Beto volunteer phone banked her yesterday.

The O'Rourke ground game could be severely underestimated if this is the norm.

You can look at how many calls they have made (20 million) and how many doors they have knocked on for GOTV in each individual precinct here:

https://win.betofortexas.com/?source=plantowin

1.6 million GOTV doors knocked, although that goes back to even a bit before the beginning of the early vote period.

I do have to say that O'Rourke's campaign does seem to have a strong and impressive organization. Maybe that's enough to deliver higher than expected numbers for him.

Even if he loses, his network will be an important legacy for future campaigns. That's what happened in GA-06 where McBath might beat Handel based on the network Ossoff left behind.

[RI]

An analysis of Cuyahoga County precinct-level turnout data so far:

Trump-majority precincts:
45.3% total turnout
21.2% ED turnout
24.1% Absentee turnout

Clinton-majority precincts:
33.2% total turnout
17.4% ED turnout
15.9% Absentee turnout

White Clinton-majority precincts:
38.5% total turnout
20.1% ED turnout
18.4% Absentee turnout

Majority-black precincts:
28.2% total turnout
14.7% ED turnout
13.5% Absentee turnout

>30% Hispanic precincts:
15.0% total turnout
9.3% ED turnout
5.8% Absentee turnout

Clinton-swing precincts:
43.3% total turnout
21.8% ED turnout
21.6% Absentee turnout

Trump-swing precincts:
31.6% total turnout
16.3% ED turnout
15.4% Absentee turnout

White Trump-swing precincts:
35.9% total turnout
18.3% ED turnout
17.7% Absentee turnout

So the highest turnout is in Trump-voting but Clinton-swinging white suburban precincts, unsurprisingly. Black and Hispanic precincts are showing comparatively low turnout. White-working class areas will likely be more represented in the ED vote than in the absentee, whereas the high turnout suburban area appear to be relatively more concentrated in absentee voting.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So the highest turnout is in Trump-voting but Clinton-swinging white suburban precincts, unsurprisingly. Black and Hispanic precincts are showing comparatively low turnout. White-working class areas will likely be more represented in the ED vote than in the absentee, whereas the high turnout suburban area appear to be relatively more concentrated in absentee voting.

Strengthens my fear/prediction that Rs are going to win OH Gov.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

So the highest turnout is in Trump-voting but Clinton-swinging white suburban precincts, unsurprisingly. Black and Hispanic precincts are showing comparatively low turnout. White-working class areas will likely be more represented in the ED vote than in the absentee, whereas the high turnout suburban area appear to be relatively more concentrated in absentee voting.

Strengthens my fear/prediction that Rs are going to win OH Gov.

Yeah, hard to spin that in the Dems' favour unless non-whites tend to vote later in the day.  

[Oryxslayer]

https://nyti.ms/2Da3IT9

NYT page is up, though I can't get the correct link on my phone - the link takes you to the NY State page.

[Gass3268]

So the highest turnout is in Trump-voting but Clinton-swinging white suburban precincts, unsurprisingly. Black and Hispanic precincts are showing comparatively low turnout. White-working class areas will likely be more represented in the ED vote than in the absentee, whereas the high turnout suburban area appear to be relatively more concentrated in absentee voting.

Strengthens my fear/prediction that Rs are going to win OH Gov.

Not sure why suburban areas that swung towards Clinton and are made up of the folks most likely to be revolted by Trump/Republicans having high turnout is a bad thing. Also I'd like to see a comparison to 2014 before I would say that black or Latino turnout is bad.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So the highest turnout is in Trump-voting but Clinton-swinging white suburban precincts, unsurprisingly. Black and Hispanic precincts are showing comparatively low turnout. White-working class areas will likely be more represented in the ED vote than in the absentee, whereas the high turnout suburban area appear to be relatively more concentrated in absentee voting.

Strengthens my fear/prediction that Rs are going to win OH Gov.

Not sure why suburban areas that swung towards Clinton and are made up of the folks most likely to be revolted by Trump/Republicans having high turnout is a bad thing. Also I'd like to see a comparison to 2014 before I would say that black or Latino turnout is bad.

Because Hofoid is a troll

[Virginiá]

hofoid is hofoid, but there has been a tendency for people to over-indulge partisan turnout numbers despite the fact that we know large numbers of Republican-leaning suburbanites have drifted since Trump descended from his perch years ago. I really don't see how you can get these margins among white college graduate women without winning over registered Republicans (or at least those who used to be registered Republicans).

Also, the independent vote is crucial. Bare GOP pluralities do not matter if they themselves depended on comfortably winning the indie vote, only to lose it this time around, which is typical in waves.