Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1061815563494744064

So Cox gained 3552 votes in 1 batch, and Valadao's lead was only 5378 to start with. It *does* sound promising, I am just afraid maybe it isn't representative. Then again, it is the CA late arriving vote, so maybe...

EDIT - Well, in 2016, the Kern County part of CA-21 went 66.56% for Clinton to 28.19% for Trump, so it seems like this is about in line with the Clinton 2016 vote.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1061815563494744064

So Cox gained 3552 votes in 1 batch, and Valadao's lead was only 5378 to start with. It *does* sound promising, I am just afraid maybe it isn't representative. Then again, it is the CA late arriving vote, so maybe...

EDIT - Well, in 2016, the Kern County part of CA-21 went 66.56% for Clinton to 28.19% for Trump, so it seems like this is about in line with the Clinton 2016 vote.

The 3552 vote gain matches exactly with Cox getting 65.4% from 11,540 votes , so it does sound like 100% of this batch that just updated must be from Kern County. So Valadao will probably do better, unfortunately, in batches released from other counties.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

CA-21 might have about 30k votes left to count? 2012 had 116k votes, 2016 had 132k, and 2014 had 79k votes. I'm willing to bet turnout will look closer to 2012 when all is said and done, maybe a bit higher.

I don't know where you are getting the 30K number, but if that is accurate, and if those votes (plus the 12K that just dropped from Kern) were equally distributed to the Clinton-Trump 2016 vote and broke with the same %s, that would give Cox a margin of 4,353 in total (not counting the margin gain he just got from Kern).

That would mean that a best guess would be that in the end Valadao will win by ~1,024 votes, since he started with a 5,378 vote lead.

Since the batch we just got did break pretty much exactly in line with the Clinton vote, a best guess as to how the rest of the votes will break is also in line with the Clinton vote is not really unreasonable.

So looks like probably a narrow advantage to Valadao, but it is definitely close enough that Cox could actually win, if the votes remaining to be counted are a bit more favorable to him than that.

This is definitely a seat that in retrospect, DCCC should have put more resources into, and that Dems look very well positioned to flip in 2020. Lean/Tilt Dem for 2020 at least, I would say, if Valadao almost loses with midterm Hispanic turnout.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1062133160085835776

I think maybe Sinema is going to win...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Hobbs up by 5,667 now also.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

You think?

Maybe so!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1062133529654394882

Is that enough to flip the State House? Wasn't it either the State House or Senate that was 1 away from being tied?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

McSally has conceded:

https://twitter.com/MarthaMcSally/status/1062144676822577152

 

McSally deserves some credit for losing graciously and not drinking the Republican voter fraud Kool-Aid.

Agreed, although it is sad that it has come to a point that this is at all unusual or unexpected. But respect to McSally anyway. She was a good candidate running in the face of a Dem wave and the alternative Rs would have definitely lost by more.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

You have to realize how impressive Sinema's win is with the Green candidate taking almost 2.5% of the votes

I bet Arizona will be the tipping point state in the 2020 Presidential election, and there will be a Green candidate who gets just enough votes for Trump to be re-elected.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Things don't portend well for Young Kim after the latest dump:

Where is the link for where you are getting those?

It seems to be more up to date than this -

https://vote.sos.ca.gov/

?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I haven't been following the California dumps that closely.  I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County?

The King county dump did have a net gain for Valadao, but it wasn't too great. We'll see.

To talk about this topic, even though it was a mistaken response -- there are 7,788 votes left in Kings County. There are 22,072 votes left in Kern County. Do we know what portion of Kern County is in CA-21? I think it's around 45%, which would mean about 10,000 ballots for CA-21, but hard to be certain. If we assume the 2016 Presidential figures control the remaining late ballots as they have in the recent dumps, that puts [TJ] Cox narrowly ahead of Valadao with all the votes in (ignoring Fresno since it's so small but should mildly boost Cox as well). There's also the fact that the counties apparently have very different types of ballots left - the lion's share of Kings County's remaining ballots are late VBMs, but Kern County weirdly is mostly provisionals (around 16,000, which seems like a lot to me but I think that figure is all provisionals that will be counted, i.e., does not include unverified ones). If the provisionals, which I don't think have been counted in either county yet, are even more Democratic than the late VBM ballots, which doesn't seem implausible, Cox may be favored at this point.

The King County dump that we just got does appear to have been good for Valadao. He out-performed the Trump 2016 % substantially, winning 66% of it as compared to Trump winning 54% in Kings County in 2016.

As far as Kern goes, the part of Kern that is in CA-21 voted for Clinton 66.56% to 28.19% in 2016. In 2016, there were 49,799 votes cast in the CA-21 part of Kern and 192,242 in the CA-23 part of Kern. So if you are correct that there are 16,000 votes to go in Kern, and if they are distributed between CA-21 and CA-23 in proportion to 2016 turnout, that would mean 20.6% of them are in CA-21. That would be 3292 ballots. If those broke at the same % for Cox as Clinton and the same % for Valadao as Trump + 3rd parties, that would mean about 2191 votes left in Kern for Cox and 1101 votes left in Kern for Valadao (a margin of 1090). That would cut Valadao's lead down from 2389 votes, but he would still be up by 1299 votes (as a very rough, high error estimate).

Does anyone know if there are votes out from Fresno and/or Tulare in CA-21? The parts of those counties in CA-21 both voted for Clinton by 13 points in 2016, so that might help a bit as well if there are more votes there.

But it does look like the outstanding votes probably have to go better for Cox than one would probably expect in order for him to win. Either there need to be more ballots left, or he needs to do better with the ballots left than Clinton did with ballots overall. It is possible there could be more ballots left, for one reason because I would bet there could be more provisionals and late ballots from the CA-21 part of Kern simply because that part is more Dem, and provisionals and late ballots tend to skew Dem.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

FWIW Salt Lake Tribune reporter seems to think McAdams is still on track to win UT-04. These are his calculations:

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/status/1062545235631267840

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062550688855552000

Oh boy. How many left to count?

300 absentee ballots that were previously disregarded.

oh wait, that is it? oh, I guess wodall hold on the.

Depending on how much Bourdeaux can gain from there, we could get to the range where a recount could legitimately effect the outcome.

They're not certain about how much is left either, so we don't know. A similar remaining dump would push Bourdeaux over the top.

According to this article, there are about 27k provisional ballots statewide in Georgia.

https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/judge-orders-review-provisional-ballots-georgia-election/ZM2yd0QGkyZ8Zi1IyVpF3H/

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GA has 13 Congressional Districts, so if provisional ballots are evenly distributed across GA Congressional Districts you would expect about 2077 provisional ballots in GA-07. There were 1252 provisional ballots counted so far, so that would lead one to believe that there are probably something like another 825 left.

If that is how many are left and they break with the same %s to both candidates as this batch of provisionals, that would cut Woodall's lead by another 242 votes down to 291 votes.

However, there are some reasons to think there might possibly be a greater than average amount of provisional ballots in GA-07 than other districts. It has had more population growth than average and probably more new people moving who might be more likely to have some sort of problem with their registration that would lead to a provisional ballot, and also we know that there were a lot of problems/irregularities/suppression of voting in Gwinnett in particular.

Anyway, so if there are some more provisional ballots left that could conceivably cut Woodall's lead some more. Whether it is enough is hard to say, but it seems like there is a good chance it could at least get quite a bit closer.

One thing to note though is that if there are uncounted provisionals in Forsyth County, those would probably be more Republican than ones in Gwinnett, so that might help Woodall (or at least not hurt him as much).

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier.

So, a gain of 40 seats is still possible if all races are fully counted ?

In the unlikely event that Dems somehow win NY-27 and ALSO win all of these races that are still uncalled (CA-21, CA-39, CA-45, GA-07, ME-02, NJ-03, UT-04), it would be a Dem net gain of...

42 House seats!



I am afraid CA-21 and probably GA-07 will end up going R though. But maybe... just maybe...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It's a good thing for Dems that their majority is mostly built off more durable suburban districts rather than very Trumpy districts which probably would've been one term rentals like NC-09, KY-06, IL-12, WV-03, KS-02, etc.

Yep. Dems have good reason to be very happy about how the House elections went. Less so the Senate (depending partly on how FL turns out), but not only did Dems pick up a lot of seats in the House, but they picked up the ones that are more holdable in the future.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Here are the provisional ballots apparently left in Utah County UT-04 (not Salt Lake County). No idea who this is good for, but maybe someone who knows the area can guess what sort of margin Love might get based on the neighborhoods:

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/status/1062838004899672064

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Cox just gained slightly from a big dump from Fresno County, but probably not enough, unless there is another big dump coming from Kern and not much from Kings.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1062843729784987648

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Cox just gained slightly from a big dump from Fresno County, but probably not enough, unless there is another big dump coming from Kern and not much from Kings.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1062843729784987648

Actually, Cox got what he needed from the Fresno dump today. This race will be close.

*If* there is more coming from Kern, sure. But do we know that there is more coming from Kern? They already had a big dump a few days ago. If that is more or less the last of it, then good for Valadao. But if there is more coming from Kern, maybe Cox has a shot.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

San Bernadino drops

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

And Kings in CA-21...



Not bad at all! Cox is over-performing the Hilllary #s in Kings in this batch!

So if there is more Kern, he could do it...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

If anything we all should go to a vote by mail system.

Yep, one of many components of a new Voting Rights Act the next time Dems get a trifecta. I would say also give people the option to vote at voting centers in person though, like CO.