Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (user search)
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  Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1  (Read 205905 times)
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: November 06, 2018, 05:43:49 PM »
Quote from: FREIWAL on November 06, 2018, 05:41:27 PM
Oh god are we actually trying to extrapolate from early exits?

Of course. What else are we supposed to do?
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #26 on: November 06, 2018, 05:48:45 PM »
Quote from: RI on November 06, 2018, 05:46:39 PM
The exit polls, like the regular polls, seem as if they're drawing from two different populations. I'm very curious to see how this resolves itself.

Yeah, the FOX one does seem pretty different. They are probably more consistent than they seem though, just asking different questions with different framing.

I think FOX didn't say what Trump's approval is? Which if so is interesting and possibly indicative.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #27 on: November 06, 2018, 05:52:52 PM »
Quote from: henster on November 06, 2018, 05:52:13 PM
They have more numbers scrolling in their chyron, 58% think country headed in wrong track, Trump trade policies 50-39 hurt more than help.

Ah, that is much more consistent with the CNN/MSNBC exits.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #28 on: November 06, 2018, 05:58:36 PM »
Does anyone know what time we will get the first House exit poll #s? Is that in 2 minutes, or 1 hour and 2 minutes?
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #29 on: November 06, 2018, 06:08:28 PM »
Sullivan county IN early vote does not look good, Donnelly is doing substantially worse than Bayh did. Fayette County looks about the same as Bayh did.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #30 on: November 06, 2018, 06:12:36 PM »
Donnelly winning Whitley Co Indiana early vote so far, seems like that must be good for him.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #31 on: November 06, 2018, 06:16:42 PM »
Quote from: RI on November 06, 2018, 06:13:52 PM
The GOP House candidate is up by about the same margin in Whitley's district, so I assume an error.

Yeah, I think you are right. Early results look like a Braun win so far, but it is mostly early vote, not election day.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #32 on: November 06, 2018, 06:30:27 PM »
My guess is Rs are going to do well in rural areas where Trump did well. That is not exactly a surprise, but might mean bad things for various districts like KS-02, MN-01, etc. The best Dem hope at the moment is going to have to be on the suburbs. And we don't really have anything in from those sorts of areas yet.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #33 on: November 06, 2018, 06:36:00 PM »
Does anyone have county level results for KY-06? We need to see what counties the results there are coming from.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #34 on: November 06, 2018, 06:56:57 PM »
Quote from: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 06:54:11 PM
If Donnelly pulls this out, it will not because he repeats his 2012 win. It will be because he runs up huge numbers in Indianapolis and NW Indiana while losing ground everywhere else.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #35 on: November 06, 2018, 07:24:47 PM »
Quote from: JA on November 06, 2018, 07:18:06 PM
NYT seems to be quite slow tonight in terms of keeping up with the results. Is there a better news site for live, quicker results?

Yeah all the results sites seem to be horrible this year. Terrible interfaces on them and no county House results on NYT.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #36 on: November 06, 2018, 07:33:32 PM »
Manchin down in WV exit poll OMG could Bagel have been right?
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #37 on: November 06, 2018, 07:35:01 PM »
Looks like potentially a really bad night for Dems in the Senate if this is right. 46.6% Manchin in exit, 49.4% Morrissey

Racist rural WV hicks strike again?
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #38 on: November 06, 2018, 07:38:33 PM »
House seems to be looking very good for Dems now. Yay!

Senate much more disastrous.

OH and FL Gov both good.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #39 on: November 06, 2018, 07:51:58 PM »
Quote from: Ben. on November 06, 2018, 07:47:37 PM
Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2018, 07:43:22 PM
Quote from: INCUMBENT Cruz Will Win 👁 on November 06, 2018, 07:35:01 PM
Looks like potentially a really bad night for Dems in the Senate if this is right. 46.6% Manchin in exit, 49.4% Morrissey

Racist rural WV hicks strike again?


Manchin is up around 7 in the exit poll.

Where is this being reported?

It is the same exit poll, but is now updated. Now in the updated #s they have Manchin doing much better. He was behind 3 in the initial exit poll.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/west-virginia
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,846
« Reply #40 on: November 06, 2018, 07:53:59 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on November 06, 2018, 07:52:34 PM
The NC House results on CNN are nuts. I wish they had the county breakdown.

From the initial #s I think they may be predominantly urban counties so be cautious. But it looked very good initially.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #41 on: November 06, 2018, 07:55:06 PM »
Ohio called for Sherrod Brown, no real surprise.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #42 on: November 06, 2018, 08:02:17 PM »
Exit polls have Bredesen down in TN, McCaskill narrowly up in MO, Menendez easily up in NJ (duh not tossup)
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,846
« Reply #43 on: November 06, 2018, 08:04:31 PM »
Here is a link to FOX and AP exit polls, which are different from the other exit polls CNN and MSNBC are using

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,846
« Reply #44 on: November 06, 2018, 08:07:28 PM »
The FOX news exit poll has Morrisey narrowly up in WV, the CNN/MSNBC one has Manchin up...

GRRR
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,846
« Reply #45 on: November 06, 2018, 08:15:07 PM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on November 06, 2018, 08:12:09 PM
EV dump from

Dallas County, TX

66-33 BETO

Collins, County, TX

45-53 CRUZ

Pretty decent #s for Beto I would say. The question is election day vote.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,846
« Reply #46 on: November 06, 2018, 08:16:58 PM »
Yeah this is not looking how I would have hoped in general.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,846
« Reply #47 on: November 06, 2018, 08:18:06 PM »
TX so far looks like about a 4-5 point Cruz win I think, but that is all early vote basically.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,846
« Reply #48 on: November 06, 2018, 08:21:03 PM »
Allred up 6-7 points in TX-32 early vote. Looks like a pretty easy Dem pickup to me, unless the election day vote is somehow much more GOP, which is not very likely.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,846
« Reply #49 on: November 06, 2018, 08:22:36 PM »
Kenny Marchant also down by 10 points in TX-24 early vote LMAO, but that is probably only the Dallas County part. So he will probably do better when Tarrant comes in. But he might actually be in some danger.

If TX is a preview of sun belt suburbs in GA and CA, then Dems have a good shot at picking up a bunch of seats there, based on Dallas County early vote at least.
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