Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (user search)
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  Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1  (Read 206066 times)
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #50 on: November 06, 2018, 08:24:12 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 06, 2018, 08:20:58 PM
I think I don‘t like this election ...

Yeah it would be hard to make the early results more painful for Dems. Because it isn't actually clear that it will be an actual fail at this point, although it is clearly not best case scenario for Dems, there are also quite a few bright spots.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #51 on: November 06, 2018, 08:25:23 PM »
Uh oh, 538 has it at 60% chance Rs hold the House...
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #52 on: November 06, 2018, 08:27:56 PM »
Kendra Horn up 9 in OK-05 early vote, seems like sort of a big surprise if Dems could actually pick that up. Please come through, sun belt suburbs.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #53 on: November 06, 2018, 08:31:42 PM »
The 538 model is going to be really noisy because it is not using county level results or differentiating between early vote and election day vote.

NONE OF THE RESULTS SITES ARE ANY GOOD, NOTHING HAS COUNTY RESULTS.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #54 on: November 06, 2018, 08:36:16 PM »
National House exit poll is finally out, has Dems up 10

54.4% to 44.2%

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls

Should be enough to take the House, but it will be through the suburban districts and we may have to wait for CA.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #55 on: November 06, 2018, 08:39:56 PM »
TX early vote is looking amazingly good for Beto. He actually has a shot to win. He is winning Williamson County, winning Fort Bend by 10.

However, the rurals are normal TX, so I think it is still a narrow Cruz win, UNLESS Beto does better in the election day vote (which is possible).

Regardless, this is amazing and means Dems need to contest TX in 2020. All credit to Beto.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #56 on: November 06, 2018, 09:37:40 PM »
Quote from: JacksonHitchcock on November 06, 2018, 09:28:06 PM
Well folks, as a Moderate Democrat. I am blaming the progressives for this. and I think that Joe Biden is the Messiah and our only future.

Lol compare and contrast Bredesen and Beto.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #57 on: November 06, 2018, 09:39:02 PM »
Well, Texas is looking pretty amazing. Much of the rest of the country... less so.

Texas uber alles.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #58 on: November 06, 2018, 09:47:32 PM »
Quote from: super6646 on November 06, 2018, 09:41:37 PM
Quote from: INCUMBENT Cruz Will Win 👁 on November 06, 2018, 09:39:02 PM
Well, Texas is looking pretty amazing. Much of the rest of the country... less so.

Texas uber alles.

What are your thoughts? I'm totally shocked, but thats probably a place I wanna see a dem win just for the reaction and cause Cruz is disgusting.

It still looks to me like cruz is favored, but it will be close. Beto has a shot if the election day vote is better than the early vote. Basically Beto is performing amazingly in the suburbs, and is doing what he needed to do there. But it is the same story as everywhere else in the country in the rurals - 2016 style results there. And there are too many rurals still left to report.

But overall, even a narrrow Beto loss is an amazingly good thing for TX Dems, and it means Dems need to contest TX in 2020. And Beto should probably be at least VP. I would say Dems should look very strongly at a Gillum/Beto or Beto/Gillum ticket if Gillum loses narrowly also.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #59 on: November 06, 2018, 09:48:45 PM »

Not really, it is basically following your racist hick thesis quite well. It is not as though it is not possible to explain.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #60 on: November 06, 2018, 09:49:32 PM »

It is normally slow, but normally nobody notices because nothing is competitive. Tongue
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #61 on: November 06, 2018, 09:55:13 PM »
Quote from: pppolitics on November 06, 2018, 09:43:58 PM
Before tonight, I was willing to conceed that Indiana and Missouri were each a coin toss and wound't lose sleep over losing each of them, but losing Florida would really hurt.


Yeah FL is the main disappointment here.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #62 on: November 06, 2018, 09:57:35 PM »
Quote from: Senator Rosen on November 06, 2018, 09:45:33 PM
We're in such bizarro world I wouldn't be surprised at this point if Heller and O'Rourke won simultaneously, lol.

Nah, it is not actually that bizarre or unexpected I don't think. Somewhat, but not that much at all.

This is following pre-existing trends and extending them. Heller is going down.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #63 on: November 06, 2018, 10:05:12 PM »

Good, but not THAT surprising. The NYT Siena poll showed trouble. I seriously considered making it a D pickup in my predictions, but sadly didn't.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #64 on: November 06, 2018, 10:09:36 PM »

Also OH and MI are concerning, but not entirely unexpectedly so. But mainly it is Florida.

And some of the NJ House races have Rs up now, but I think Dems may end up winning those (we will have to see). But NJ may be another disappointment, maybe Menendez dragging down some house races. F***&Ring Menendez, NJ Dems are such idiots to nominate him.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #65 on: November 06, 2018, 10:14:10 PM »
Quote from: Calm NH Lib on November 06, 2018, 10:07:10 PM
McAdams up by 10 points - 53% reporting in UT-4!1!!1!

Yeah, the early vote was amazing for Dems in UT. Should be a pickup. More sunbelt suburbs coming through.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #66 on: November 06, 2018, 10:17:59 PM »
One important point to keep in mind ---

If there were a Presidential election now, it looks to me like Dems would *probably* be winning 270+ electoral votes. So there is that. Although we need to wait and see on MI and WI.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,848
« Reply #67 on: November 06, 2018, 10:19:38 PM »
Quote from: Crumpets on November 06, 2018, 10:09:42 PM
Nate Cohn saying Dems will win OK-5?!?!?!?!

It is close. Sun belt suburbs really coming through for Dems. OC in California should be a wipeout if it follows the trend of TX.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,848
« Reply #68 on: November 06, 2018, 10:33:18 PM »
Quote from: John A. MacDonald on November 06, 2018, 10:15:07 PM
The NYT needle is projecting this as a D+9 wave. What the hell is going on?

The systematic bias and rigged nature of the US electoral system is what is going on. The Senate is a fundamentally undemocratic system and must be fundamentally reformed, and/or new states added, etc. This was clear to me before, hopefully it will now also be clear to other Dems as well.

Plus in the House, gerrymandering and such.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,848
« Reply #69 on: November 06, 2018, 10:33:50 PM »
Quote from: iBizzBee on November 06, 2018, 10:15:19 PM
Tonight basically comes down to #Polarization.

Rural Areas vs. Urban & Suburban Areas.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,848
« Reply #70 on: November 06, 2018, 10:35:37 PM »

Salt Lake City. R gerrymander splits it into multiple districts.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,848
« Reply #71 on: November 06, 2018, 10:36:46 PM »

A Dem wave in which the rigged/undemocratic nature of the Senate is apparent.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,848
« Reply #72 on: November 06, 2018, 10:57:28 PM »

Yes, it was definitely on the radar. There was also late outside spending there, particularly from Bloomberg iirc. Bloomberg threw down a lot there at the end. So he deserves some thanks there.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,848
« Reply #73 on: November 06, 2018, 10:58:40 PM »
Quote from: Orser67 on November 06, 2018, 10:40:19 PM
If Dems don't sweep MT, AZ, and NV, I'm not sure that they'll ever win back the Senate.

They will eventually, and the first thing they need to do is admit new temporary rotten borough states in order to amend the constitution in order to fix the Senate.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,848
« Reply #74 on: November 06, 2018, 11:01:34 PM »
Quote from: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 10:49:04 PM
Senate is gone until 2024.

Wow.

Btw... anyone still wanna laugh at my Nevada Lean R?

Yeah, I will still laugh at it. NV is very different from Indiana/Missouri etc. Totally different dynamic there.
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