Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Both the FOX and CNN exit polls have Rosen up narrowly in NV FWIW

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years.

Yeah this result is not really bad/unexpected unless you had unrealistic expectations. Sure, it could have been a bit better (mainly if Ds did 1% better in Florida), but other than that it is not really so crazy or bad at all for Dems. And there is quite a lot of good.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

At the end of the day, tonight was a good night for Dems. But this bonds terribly for future elections. TERRIBLY.

Not really. Dems winning enough states for 270+ electoral votes...

Dems winning the popular vote by a good margin...

The only really bad thing is gerrymandering and the rural bias of the Senate.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Anybody else watching TX-10?

It is probably just that more of the vote has reported from Austin and Houston than the rural areas. But...

The really good thing about the TX-SEN outcome is it means Republicans are going to have to be very careful in gerrymandering the big TX metros in 2020, and are going to have to concede more Dem seats.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Gwen Graham would have won, and pulled over Nelson. Would have changed the flavor of the whole night.

She would have done about as good as Joe Donnelly and Claire McCaskill and Phil Bredesen.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

According to CNN, Jeff Van Drew is losing to an open Nazi.

I don't know whether to be shocked or sad.

I think that is because Atlantic City has not reported. It is 0% reporting on NYT in the Senate race at least, so I assume it hasn't reported in the House. But all the vote counts are different, so hard to tell. But in general the votes out are not representative in most races.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

People say candidate quality doesn't matter but if so why did Tenny lose and Katko win?

In part because Dems spent many many millions less on trying to beat Katko. Yes, candidate quality does make a difference though, but there are also other differences.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Is it too early to say I told you so re: Gillum?

Yeah, that would be a silly take. FL is just a lean R state, particularly in a midterm. Too many olds. Dems need Presidential turnout to win it, and even then it is a tough thing.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Fox News called Hawley.

GOP dominating the Senate.

     All three of the Midwestern Tossup Trifecta (IN/ND/MO) have fallen. I was optimistic, but I thought Braun would fall short.

ND is not Midwestern (not in a meaningful sense of the term). It is Great Plains. It is very different from e.g. Ohio and Michigan. It is just a huge farm (also with some oil wells dug into the ground), and that is all.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I don't think this is up anywhere yet, but Rossi is going DOWN. He's currently trailing by 15 (!) points. Early returns in WA tends to skew conservative/incumbent.

http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/CongressionalDistrict8.html

Burbstomping!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Gwen Graham would have won, and pulled over Nelson. Would have changed the flavor of the whole night.

Yep. The Graham fanboys were right all along. Looks like Gillum dragged down Nelson with him.

Huh

Not sure what is the evidence for that. FL is a state that is naturally hard for Dems to win in a midterm because the GOP base is olds, which votes in midterms. The Dem base in FL is minorities, which usually does not vote in midterms. The only reason it was even close is that Dems had decent turnout of the Dem base.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

MJ Hegar is leading Carter!

!!!

Depends on what has and has not reported, it is a quite polarized district, but still !!!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

89% Kemp is up by 8 in GA.   

Atlanta area always counts last, and that is the case here also. Just look at Fulton and DeKalb.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years.

LOL, exactly! The GOP can sit on their hands for the next two years. Their +2 in the Senate or whatever will be real useful when they can't pass a single bill!

Gridlock was expected going into tonight.

Laugh all you want, but it blocks conviction of Impeachment, and it ensures any further justices on SCOTUS, should there be further openings. And it provides building blocks for 2020. The GOP base is right behind Trump. GOP has the last laugh on this.

It does mean that in the short term. But over the longer term, all it means is that the Senate is an illegitimate legislative institution and that Dems will in the future prioritize reforming it along actual democratic representative lines.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years.

Yeah this result is not really bad/unexpected unless you had unrealistic expectations. Sure, it could have been a bit better (mainly if Ds did 1% better in Florida), but other than that it is not really so crazy or bad at all for Dems. And there is quite a lot of good.

As a dem, the senate losses are just gutting to me. If AZ doesn't go Sinema's way. I never envisioned a 46-54 senate. I was thinking 49-51 or 48-52 at worse. Feels impossible to win it back even if the Dems win the presidential in 2020.

It was possible that Dems could have done better in the Senate, but even if that were the case, this same thing happening now would have just happened in a few cycles. It is just happening a bit sooner this way. It is sort of better this way, because at least it means that nobody will any longer have false hope or illusion about the Senate as an institution. Bottom line - Dems have the House, Trump can't pass any legislation, and Dems are set up for 2020. All Dems need to do in 2020 is repeat this same election. It is enough to win, just winning the same places Dems won in this election.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Gwen Graham would have won, and pulled over Nelson. Would have changed the flavor of the whole night.

Yep. The Graham fanboys were right all along. Looks like Gillum dragged down Nelson with him.

Huh

Not sure what is the evidence for that. FL is a state that is naturally hard for Dems to win in a midterm because the GOP base is olds, which votes in midterms. The Dem base in FL is minorities, which usually does not vote in midterms. The only reason it was even close is that Dems had decent turnout of the Dem base.

In the 2006 midterms, Nelson won in a landslide against Katherine Harris. In the 2010 midterms, the Dems nearly won the Governorship in a very unfavorable environment. This year it should have been theirs.

That was when the makeup of the Democratic party was very different. There were still Dixiecrats around to vote for Nelson. There will still old people who remembered FDR. Dems were still winning Congressional districts in places like rural Tennessee. That ship sailed in 2010.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

89% Kemp is up by 8 in GA.   

Atlanta area always counts last, and that is the case here also. Just look at Fulton and DeKalb.

There's not enough left in Fulton/DeKalb.  Kemp has this.

I didn't say that it was enough. I just meant it would narrow. I had predicted Kemp winning FWIW, and posted some pessimistic early vote analysis yesterday on GA which seems to have panned out more or less as it seemed.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years.

LOL, exactly! The GOP can sit on their hands for the next two years. Their +2 in the Senate or whatever will be real useful when they can't pass a single bill!

Gridlock was expected going into tonight.

Laugh all you want, but it blocks conviction of Impeachment, and it ensures any further justices on SCOTUS, should there be further openings. And it provides building blocks for 2020. The GOP base is right behind Trump. GOP has the last laugh on this.

It does mean that in the short term. But over the longer term, all it means is that the Senate is an illegitimate legislative institution and that Dems will in the future prioritize reforming it along actual democratic representative lines.

I always find it amusing when opponents of Republicans complain that the system is against them. Seems a bit childish, with all due respect.

Nah, what we have here is an outcome where Dems are winning the popular vote by 10% (maybe a bit less, but even if it is more like 5%, it is still a clear and substantial win).

It is not childish to think that election results should reflect the will of the people. It is just democratic principles.

If our electoral system violates fundamental democratic principles, so much the worse for our electoral system.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Does anyone have any idea what's happening in TX-31? Hegar is over Carter 50.2-48.4 with 60% in.

I have no idea what has reported, but my guess would be that probably the votes that reported are mostly in Killeen or Round Rock/Cedar Park.

Most likely R precincts in Georgetown/north Williamson County or around Temple still have to report.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Democrats retain MA-Gov and VT-Gov

Republicans, you mean.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Republicans doing well in Minnesota, they won the 8th, the 1st congressional seat is extremely competitive..

They are doing well in RURAL Minneosta, yes. RURAL is the key there, and this is part of the larger trend of Rs doing well in rural areas and Dems doing well in urban/suburban areas.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Governor Race in Wisconsin is extremely close, 96% of Milwaukee reported  

The WOW counties are also all in. Remaining votes are scattered, some in the Driftless, a bunch in La Crosse, some in Dane, some in the Walker-friendly eastern small cities, some in random rural counties. Given how close it is, tiny, heavily D Menominee could also make the difference when it finally decides to drop.

Ugh, Evers had better pull it off.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Yeah, Ohio is definitely going to be the toughest nut to crack of the Trump states.

Dems may have a better shot at winning TX in 2020 than Ohio. Which is not to say that Dems are likely to win TX, just that it may be a better shot.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The new chairs of the House committees must under no circumstances be go-along-to-get-along elderly minority hacks.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

538 has Democrats favored in TX-31.

538 doesn't have county or precinct results, so it is basically meaningless. Some precincts are heavily Dem in TX-31, others strongly R. It all depends on what has reported in the various different counts.

Killeen/Cedar Park/Round Rock = good for Hegar

Everything else (except a few minority precincts in Temple) = good for Carter