Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Hindsight was 2020]

I hate admitting this is my source but people on predictit are saying Scott murdered in the panhandle. Anyone hear anything like that?

[Gass3268]

Looks like prelim exit poll from WaPo.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/midterm-battleground-districts/

Isn't this info supposed to be embargoed until 5PM?

Not the exit poll, but a battleground poll that's kinda like an exit poll:

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[OBD]

I hate admitting this is my source but people on predictit are saying Scott murdered in the panhandle. Anyone hear anything like that?

Nope *eyebrow raise*

[Gass3268]

I hate admitting this is my source but people on predictit are saying Scott murdered in the panhandle. Anyone hear anything like that?

He probably did, but turnout there also isn't as strong so far as other counties.

[OBD]

I hate admitting this is my source but people on predictit are saying Scott murdered in the panhandle. Anyone hear anything like that?

He probably did, but turnout there also isn't as strong so far as other counties.

Oh wait.

God I thought you said he was MURDERED in the panhandle.

[houseonaboat]

I hate admitting this is my source but people on predictit are saying Scott murdered in the panhandle. Anyone hear anything like that?

PredictIt commentors make people on this board like like Rove and Axelrod.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/1059854322018725889

[ExSky]

Anyone else feel like we are about to see the biggest polling miss in decades? I don’t know which way it’s going to go, but one of the two sides is going to completely overwhelm the other.

[Gass3268]

Goal posts are being moved:

https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1059913786591731712

[Yank2133]

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[OBD]

Anyone else feel like we are about to see the biggest polling miss in decades? I don’t know which way it’s going to go, but one of the two sides is going to completely overwhelm the other.

My gut feeling is that it's going to be a qualified Democratic wave in the House. I don't feel good about the Senate though.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, the site hasn't crashed yet, so I guess that is good.

[Aurelio21]

…  and second most important issue : DJ Trump himself. 56 % wong direction, 2/3 of Dems are for impeachment. All those who are posting "Send reinforcements"-tweets: Might you think that this could have caused something else?

[RI]

I never find early exit polls particularly illuminating, personally. For example, more than a quarter of those who said we were on the "wrong track" in 2016 voted for Clinton any way. You can't infer a whole lot just from the raw response. If we had the same breakdown this time, the GOP would win 53% of the vote.

[bilaps]

Looks like prelim exit poll from WaPo.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/midterm-battleground-districts/

Isn't this info supposed to be embargoed until 5PM?

Looks like an in house poll by WaPo and not done by the usual people who do exits. The numbers look decent for Dems, top issue healthcare, 56% wrong track.

In NBC's last poll wrong track number was 54%. If it's 56% in competitive districts, that should be a problem for Republicans.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/1059854322018725889

The Arlington TX Precinct that didn't have ballots and where a lot of people apparently left was 66% Trump in 2008.

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/1059854322018725889

The Arlington TX Precinct that didn't have ballots and where a lot of people apparently left was 66% Trump in 2008.

Unacceptable regardless of who it benefits. States need to get their stuff figured iut

[emailking]

Anyone else feel like we are about to see the biggest polling miss in decades? I don’t know which way it’s going to go, but one of the two sides is going to completely overwhelm the other.

I think a significant polling miss is unlikely, but if there is one I think it would be much more likely to favor the Democrats than oppose them.

[henster]

Prelim exits should be coming at the top of the hour.

[Gass3268]

The Freiwal keeps growing in Clark County!

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1059925165751103489

[IceSpear]

The Freiwal keeps growing in Clark County!

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1059925165751103489

I feel like a kid on Christmas Eve! Except replace Santa with Sen. Rosen.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Prelim exits should be coming at the top of the hour.

And?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Talking heads on MSNBC are sounding pretty optimistic for Dems, FWIW. At some point they do start getting early exit poll numbers and that tends to color their early coverage, but not sure if they have those yet or only in an hour.

But at some point, you can tell roughly how the exit polls (though not necessarily the actual results) are going based on how people on the TV sound in coloring their coverage.

[Gass3268]

Republicans are winning the day in Washoe, but are still about 2 points away from what they got on election day in 2016:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1059925739401895942

[Thomas D]

Talking heads on MSNBC are sounding pretty optimistic for Dems, FWIW. At some point they do start getting early exit poll numbers and that tends to color their early coverage, but not sure if they have those yet or only in an hour.

But at some point, you can tell roughly how the exit polls (though not necessarily the actual results) are going based on how people on the TV sound in coloring their coverage.

I remember in 2004 the people on FOX were talking about how Bush just couldn't close to deal on being re-elected. That was at about 5:55.