Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[MillennialModerate]

I'd rather be a Democrat than a Republican tonight, period.

Would love to hear the mental gymnastics on this one

Are you serious? You would rather be the party that retains one chamber rather than the party that takes a chamber and wins several governorships?

What this shows is the Democratic Party, despite having the better ideas - can’t win when it matters. They are horrible at getting their message across. The fact tonight isn’t a Tsunami after the way Trump has conducted himself and the way the GOP Congress has blindly cheered him on - says everything you need to know.

Losing all the tossup Senate zests, BARELY winning the house and losing the two Gov races that were the big national stories ..... very little to cheer about. How you’d rather be the Dems is beyond me.

I’d rather control the White House and the Senate. Then barely control the house and have a horrific bench that can’t produce a canidate capable of beating the biggest ing clown this country has ever seen

[MT Treasurer]

Tester probably still wins Garfield County tbqh imho

[henster]

Luria still ahead on SBE.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Why is Texas so slow

It is normally slow, but normally nobody notices because nothing is competitive.

[Badger]

Well, Texas is looking pretty amazing. Much of the rest of the country... less so.

Texas uber alles.

What are your thoughts? I'm totally shocked, but thats probably a place I wanna see a dem win just for the reaction and cause Cruz is disgusting.

It still looks to me like cruz is favored, but it will be close. Beto has a shot if the election day vote is better than the early vote.

It usually is in Texas, iirc.

[J. J.]

Scott is up by 1 point. 

[Storr]

Luria still ahead on SBE.

Same on CNN with 94% in.

[OBD]

My head hurts

[NOVA Green]

Why is Texas so slow

Raw voter turnout numbers roughly doubled maybe between '14 and '18?

Also, TX is kind of stingy when it comes to funding government services (I say that with a lotta love for Texas where I lived for Four Years, but kept paying insane sales taxes for services that local government couldn't deliver (no state income taxes).

So Yes--- don't expect Texas to county quickly, and even if OT might have approval in a few places, I wouldn't be surprised to see numbers decrease the later it gets in the night, since TO levels likely exceeded budget numbers...

[Brittain33]

Nate Cohen says a Beto win is outside the MoE. It looks like all of his vote is in and Cruz's vote is still out.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

FL-26 called for Mucarsel-Powell on NPR.

We all expected this but further proof that GOP is purging itself of anybody mildly lukewarm on Trump.

[vileplume]

Kim Davis lost. Stay strong.

I'm a British poster (and gay) and I try not to comment on American topics because I don't know enough about it but this makes me soooooo happy especially seen as she was out in eastern Europe trying to stir up homophobic feeling.

Remember if the night doesn't go how you expected at least try to remember this idiot lost in Kentucky. Love from the Uk

[SunSt0rm]

NYT model has Beto losing by 9!!!

[IceSpear]

This night is WEIRD. AS. HELL.

Not really, it is basically following your racist hick thesis quite well. It is not as though it is not possible to explain.

Good point. I will now accept my accolades.

[ProudModerate2]

NYTimes gives Nelson a 54% of winning, so let's not melt down yet.

Is this a new estimate, or one they gave before the election?
Post link please/

[RI]

Broward now 98% in. Scott still up by 0.8% plus the error in Washington County.

[°Leprechaun]

GOP House @ 30.6% @538

[SunSt0rm]

NYTimes gives Nelson a 54% of winning, so let's not melt down yet.

Is this a new estimate, or one they gave before the election?
Post link please/

Estimate

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-forecast.html

[Nyvin]

VA-7 will be called any moment for Spanberger.  Lead just got bigger (almost 2k now) with just 3% left

[Yank2133]

Some VA insiders are saying Luria has one.

[Panda Express]

CO-6 Coffman projected loser aww yeah

[OBD]

DAVIDS WINS

[RI]

NYTimes gives Nelson a 54% of winning, so let's not melt down yet.

Is this a new estimate, or one they gave before the election?
Post link please/

Estimate

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-forecast.html

This doesn't account for the "phantom" votes in SE FL

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Michigan Senate map so far looking a lot closer to the Trump map than Stabenow's last map...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Before tonight, I was willing to conceed that Indiana and Missouri were each a coin toss and wound't lose sleep over losing each of them, but losing Florida would really hurt.

Yeah FL is the main disappointment here.