Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

TX-31 20% Reporting
John Carter 50.1%
MJ. Hegar 48.4%

Oh, wow! This is close! I'd almost take this as a consolation prize for McGraths loss.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Did anybody have Ohio senate race being this close?

[Hammy]

Gwen Graham would have won, and pulled over Nelson. Would have changed the flavor of the whole night.

Yep. The Graham fanboys were right all along. Looks like Gillum dragged down Nelson with him.

Huh

Not sure what is the evidence for that. FL is a state that is naturally hard for Dems to win in a midterm because the GOP base is olds, which votes in midterms. The Dem base in FL is minorities, which usually does not vote in midterms. The only reason it was even close is that Dems had decent turnout of the Dem base.

Any blame is on the state party, not the voters who chose a truly better candidate--FLDP should've worked harder, done whatever they could, to make sure as many voters turned out as possible.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years.

LOL, exactly! The GOP can sit on their hands for the next two years. Their +2 in the Senate or whatever will be real useful when they can't pass a single bill!

Gridlock was expected going into tonight.

Laugh all you want, but it blocks conviction of Impeachment, and it ensures any further justices on SCOTUS, should there be further openings. And it provides building blocks for 2020. The GOP base is right behind Trump. GOP has the last laugh on this.

It does mean that in the short term. But over the longer term, all it means is that the Senate is an illegitimate legislative institution and that Dems will in the future prioritize reforming it along actual democratic representative lines.

I always find it amusing when opponents of Republicans complain that the system is against them. Seems a bit childish, with all due respect.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years.

Yeah this result is not really bad/unexpected unless you had unrealistic expectations. Sure, it could have been a bit better (mainly if Ds did 1% better in Florida), but other than that it is not really so crazy or bad at all for Dems. And there is quite a lot of good.

As a dem, the senate losses are just gutting to me. If AZ doesn't go Sinema's way. I never envisioned a 46-54 senate. I was thinking 49-51 or 48-52 at worse. Feels impossible to win it back even if the Dems win the presidential in 2020.

It was possible that Dems could have done better in the Senate, but even if that were the case, this same thing happening now would have just happened in a few cycles. It is just happening a bit sooner this way. It is sort of better this way, because at least it means that nobody will any longer have false hope or illusion about the Senate as an institution. Bottom line - Dems have the House, Trump can't pass any legislation, and Dems are set up for 2020. All Dems need to do in 2020 is repeat this same election. It is enough to win, just winning the same places Dems won in this election.

[J. J.]

89% Kemp is up by 8 in GA.   

Atlanta area always counts last, and that is the case here also. Just look at Fulton and DeKalb.

Fluton is totally in.   

[Roronoa D. Law]

Jesus Ivey barely won Mobile

[Crumpets]

Libertarian Brian Luke pulling 27.5% of the vote in WA-2 (no Republican on the ballot).

[pppolitics]

Why is Nevada taking so long?

Anyone know?

[SunSt0rm]

Have Nevada decided not to count any vote today or what?

[KingSweden]

Why is Nevada taking so long?

Anyone know?

I think some polling places were open late

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I live out west and momentum has certainly stopped when polls started coming out in favor of GOP again

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Gwen Graham would have won, and pulled over Nelson. Would have changed the flavor of the whole night.

Yep. The Graham fanboys were right all along. Looks like Gillum dragged down Nelson with him.

Huh

Not sure what is the evidence for that. FL is a state that is naturally hard for Dems to win in a midterm because the GOP base is olds, which votes in midterms. The Dem base in FL is minorities, which usually does not vote in midterms. The only reason it was even close is that Dems had decent turnout of the Dem base.

In the 2006 midterms, Nelson won in a landslide against Katherine Harris. In the 2010 midterms, the Dems nearly won the Governorship in a very unfavorable environment. This year it should have been theirs.

That was when the makeup of the Democratic party was very different. There were still Dixiecrats around to vote for Nelson. There will still old people who remembered FDR. Dems were still winning Congressional districts in places like rural Tennessee. That ship sailed in 2010.

[BundouYMB]

Can I get Horfoid's take on Democrats currently leading in all 4 Iowa seats?

Counting bias in King's district. I shouldn't have to explain that. 

52% in for King's district and he's actually down by more. Democrats still leading in all 4 IA seats and the IA gubernatorial race. I'm still waiting for your hot take of how this could happen when Democrats hAtE thE WwC MeN

[Storr]

Does anyone have any idea what's happening in TX-31? Hegar is over Carter 50.2-48.4 with 60% in.

[Bojack Horseman]

AP has called MI-SEN for Debbie Stabenow.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why is Nevada taking so long?

Anyone know?

I think some polling places were open late

Yes, and don't forget that voters still in line when the polls close still get to vote.  The Elections Board tweeted:

https://twitter.com/NVElect/status/1060008459788181504

[riceowl]

Hey guys Atlas didn't crash! Thanks Dave!!!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats retain MA-Gov and VT-Gov

Republicans.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

89% Kemp is up by 8 in GA.   

Atlanta area always counts last, and that is the case here also. Just look at Fulton and DeKalb.

There's not enough left in Fulton/DeKalb.  Kemp has this.

I didn't say that it was enough. I just meant it would narrow. I had predicted Kemp winning FWIW, and posted some pessimistic early vote analysis yesterday on GA which seems to have panned out more or less as it seemed.

[Dr. Arch]

Hey guys Atlas didn't crash! Thanks DaveVirginia!!!

FTFY

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hey guys Atlas didn't crash! Thanks Dave!!!

And Virginia, for crafting the changes to help keep it up.

[Doimper]

Did anybody have Ohio senate race being this close?

Nope. Looks like John James' late close in the polls was real, too.

[Beet]

Heitkamp is actually doing better than McCaskill, Donnelly, and Bredesen.

[Nyvin]

NC elects Anita Earls (D) to the state Supreme Court.   Dems will have 5-2 majority.