Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1060040816624893952

It's over.

Florida was such a flop.    Gawd I wish we could just replace the entire FL Dem Party.

As I said before the election, if the Florida Democratic Party manages to lose both the governor race and senate race, the whole party should be disbanded and future election campaigns should be run from DNC's headquarter.

[7,052,770]

As a right-wing hack, I can honestly say I feel good tonight. I honestly thought Gillum, Nelson, Cordray were gonna win, I was concerned about Hawley and Braun losing. Now perhaps even Walker, McSally and Heller could pull through.

If Reaganfan feels good, that cannot be good for libs.

Once again, and this has been going on now this entire decade:

The polls underestimate Republican voters
The Atlas overstates Democrat enthusiasm

Yawn, you were going to say this no matter what happened.

It's obviously a really big deal that your party lost the House, even though the districts were gerrymandered back in ~2011 for this not to be possible this decade.

[Storr]

Fox projects Scott wins in FL.

It's officially not a wave, and just a weird election.

It is ludicrous to call an election in which Dems win the popular vote by 7-10% or whatever it turns out to be anything but a wave.

A wave where a 3 term Democratic incumbent senator loses in a state that voted twice for Obama and that Hillary only narrowly lost?

Hilary narrowly lost and so did Nelson.

[henster]

Things will be better for FL with Amendment 4, I have no doubt both Gillum/Nelson would've won if felons could've voted.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Moral of the story: the Democratic base is the metropolitan elite.

Ah yes. Minorities, young people, and immigrants.

I mean that in a tounge-in cheek way, but it's interesting to see where we've won the most: South Florida, New Jersey, metro Minneapolis, Dallas, Houston, Philadelphia, Virginia, etc.

[7,052,770]

Does Nevada plan on reporting orrrr?

Evidently they decided they won't report until everyone is done voting...

So I'm guessing they'll just release the final results all at once? Like any minute now they'll just say "oh, btw Rosen [or Heller] wins!" ??

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Fox projects Scott wins in FL.

It's officially not a wave, and just a weird election.

It is ludicrous to call an election in which Dems win the popular vote by 7-10% or whatever it turns out to be anything but a wave.

A wave where a 3 term Democratic incumbent senator loses in a state that voted twice for Obama and that Hillary only narrowly lost?

Hilary narrowly lost and so did Nelson.

And neither of these elections is a wave.

[Storr]

Politico calls Maine Gov. for Mills (D).

[henster]

James only took 8% of the black vote in MI.

[Reaganfan]

Things will be better for FL with Amendment 4, I have no doubt both Gillum/Nelson would've won if felons could've voted.

What a sad state for Democrats. "If only we get criminals to the polls..."

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

CA-25 and CA-48 are both 50.0-50.0 now.

[Nyvin]

Democrats won a trifecta in Maine.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Fox projects Scott wins in FL.

It's officially not a wave, and just a weird election.

It is ludicrous to call an election in which Dems win the popular vote by 7-10% or whatever it turns out to be anything but a wave.

A wave where a 3 term Democratic incumbent senator loses in a state that voted twice for Obama and that Hillary only narrowly lost?

Your question implicitly concedes that "states" are what matter rather than representing the will of the people as expressed through their votes. I do not concede that. If the electoral system does not represent the people's will as they express them through their votes, then the problem lies with the electoral system, not with the people's votes.

But in any case, yes, you always have a certain number of tough losses in a wave. For example, Rs losing NV and CO senate races in 2010, and generally performing badly on the West coast despite doing very well elsewhere in the East and Midwest. This is not really characteristically different from that at all. So if 2010 was a wave, than this is as well. And it is not really reasonable to say 2010 was not a wave, I don't think.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Things will be better for FL with Amendment 4, I have no doubt both Gillum/Nelson would've won if felons could've voted.

What a sad state for Democrats. "If only we get criminals to the polls..."

Dude, you never post on this board. You're showing up just to brag.

Go away. You're pathetic and you have no business here.

[Illiniwek]

This is so stupid how the results have slowed down.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It's obviously a really big deal that your party lost the House, even though the districts were gerrymandered back in ~2011 for this not to be possible this decade.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Fox projects Scott wins in FL.

It's officially not a wave, and just a weird election.

It is ludicrous to call an election in which Dems win the popular vote by 7-10% or whatever it turns out to be anything but a wave.

A wave where a 3 term Democratic incumbent senator loses in a state that voted twice for Obama and that Hillary only narrowly lost?

Your question implicitly concedes that "states" are what matter rather than representing the will of the people as expressed through their votes. I do not concede that. If the electoral system does not represent the people's will as they express them through their votes, then the problem lies with the electoral system, not with the people's votes.

But in any case, yes, you always have a certain number of tough losses in a wave. For example, Rs losing NV and CO senate races in 2010, and generally performing badly on the West coast despite doing very well elsewhere in the East and Midwest. This is not really characteristically different from that at all. So if 2010 was a wave, than this is as well. And it is not really reasonable to say 2010 was not a wave, I don't think.

NV and CO were both Democratic held seats. Wave elections don't usally have one party losing 4+ Senate seats and gaining at most 2 Senate seats.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Is Jon Tester vulnerable? Also, Arizona is going to be crazy close.

[J. J.]

one thing that should be looked at is African American turnout. 

This statement is sort of hanging out there without any context and seems odd.

I live in an African American precinct; I noted how low the turnout seemed. 

We saw to African American gubernatorial  candidates, one clearly favored, fail. 

At least in IN, Donnelly did not seem to be running as well in areas that were African American.   

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Happy we won the house but Gillum losing absolutely shattered me.

[pops]

The real loser tonight was third party candidates. They were repudiated pretty much everywhere, even worse than in 2016. Neal Simon, Gary Johnson, Sam McCann, and Stephanie Miner were the biggest losers.

[Skunk]

Choosing to look on the bright sides here. Kendra Horn!!!!!!!

Democrats won in Oklahoma after all, just not where we expected! Horn is easily the biggest upset of the night. Nobody saw it coming, I sure as hell didn't. Especially since Stitt won.

[RI]

Is Jon Tester vulnerable? Also, Arizona is going to be crazy close.

Tester's hope lies in Gallatin County. No where else is likely to be notably pro-Tester.

[Yank2133]

It's obviously a really big deal that your party lost the House, even though the districts were gerrymandered back in ~2011 for this not to be possible this decade.

Not only lost the house, but lost ground in the three states that put the president over the top.

[Roronoa D. Law]

one thing that should be looked at is African American turnout. 

This statement is sort of hanging out there without any context and seems odd.

I live in an African American precinct; I noted how low the turnout seemed. 

We saw to African American gubernatorial  candidates, one clearly favored, fail. 

At least in IN, Donnelly did not seem to be running as well in areas that were African American.   

I say one thing they sure turned out in SC