Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[J. J.]

@58% in Rosendale up by over a point. 

[Tintrlvr]

Carson City dropped in Nevada. Heller wins it 54-41, which is a slight underperformance on margin compared to Trump-Clinton (Trump won it 52-38). Nothing to indicate anything but a Rosen victory thus far.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Just going to point this out... Kara Eastman is only down by 4 in NE-02 with 88% reporting.

Maybe, just maybe, if national Democratic groups like DCCC, House Majority PAC, etc which spent hardly anything there had spent a few million more there instead, perhaps it could have been enough.

But we will never know, because they never really gave her a chance.

[7,052,770]

Tester up to 89% chance on NYT.

If the West comes through (MT/AZ/NV) and stops the bleeding to R+2, it's really a pretty good night for the Democrats given the map.

[RI]

A Heller victory would be the perfect way to cap off a weird election.

[Storr]

Tester up to 89% chance on NYT.

If the West comes through (MT/AZ/NV) and stops the bleeding to R+2, it's really a pretty good night for the Democrats given the map.

I'd call that a miracle honestly.

[Reaganfan]

A Heller victory would be the perfect way to cap off a weird election.

Why do you say it's "weird"?

[Hammy]

538 Gives Heller an over 95% chance of winning

Are they going solely based on the votes counted?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Just going to point this out... Kara Eastman is only down by 4 in NE-02 with 88% reporting.

Maybe, just maybe, if national Democratic groups like DCCC, House Majority PAC, etc which spent hardly anything there had spent a few million more there instead, perhaps it could have been enough.

But we will never know, because they never really gave her a chance.

Establishment Democrats would rather the progressives lose so that they can keep using electability as the reason to go with their useless moderate heroes.

[YE]

Tester up to 89% chance on NYT.

If the West comes through (MT/AZ/NV) and stops the bleeding to R+2, it's really a pretty good night for the Democrats given the map.

If it weren’t for FL I’d agree.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

So far the more conservative non-republicans are winning in California, we will see if that holds in the morning. Tuck, Poizner and Feinstein look to come out ahead.

[Third Party]

Just going to point this out... Kara Eastman is only down by 4 in NE-02 with 88% reporting.

Maybe, just maybe, if national Democratic groups like DCCC, House Majority PAC, etc which spent hardly anything there had spent a few million more there instead, perhaps it could have been enough.

But we will never know, because they never really gave her a chance.

Yep. A perfect example of the corrupt Democrat leadership shooting themselves in the foot yet again. It's why they lost in 2016 and why they are under-performing again tonight.

[7,052,770]

Tester up to 89% chance on NYT.

If the West comes through (MT/AZ/NV) and stops the bleeding to R+2, it's really a pretty good night for the Democrats given the map.

I'd call that a miracle honestly.

I don't really think it would be particularly surprising, if NYT's numbers are believable.

[Tintrlvr]

Other rural counties in Nevada, Heller is also slightly underperforming Trump. He's winning Eureka 84-10, Trump won it 85-9; Lander 76-17, exact same as 2016; Nye, 65-28, Trump won it 68-26; Esmeralda 75-14, Trump won it 78-15; Storey 63-31, Trump won it 63-29. All points to a 3-4 point Rosen win. Nye is especially good for Rosen because most of the population is exurban Las Vegas so a swing to her relative to Clinton indicates a similar result in Clark.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

538 Gives Heller an over 95% chance of winning

Are they going solely based on the votes counted?

Pretty sure. Nate Cohn’s site only has him at 56%

[OSR stands with Israel]

Tester up to 89% chance on NYT.

If the West comes through (MT/AZ/NV) and stops the bleeding to R+2, it's really a pretty good night for the Democrats given the map.

538 is Giving Heller a 95% chance for some reason


Have no idea why Nate Silver hasnt explained that

[Sestak]

Rosen up 10 in Washoe EV. Looks very good for her.

[Yank2133]

Just going to point this out... Kara Eastman is only down by 4 in NE-02 with 88% reporting.

Maybe, just maybe, if national Democratic groups like DCCC, House Majority PAC, etc which spent hardly anything there had spent a few million more there instead, perhaps it could have been enough.

But we will never know, because they never really gave her a chance.

Yep. A perfect example of the corrupt Democrat leadership shooting themselves in the foot yet again. It's why they lost in 2016 and why they are under-performing again tonight.

Imagine thinking Democrats are underperforming in this election.

God, the left sucks in the country.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Carson City dropped in Nevada. Heller wins it 54-41, which is a slight underperformance on margin compared to Trump-Clinton (Trump won it 52-38). Nothing to indicate anything but a Rosen victory thus far.

Yeah, given how well Dems have been doing in urban and suburban areas, it would be pretty shocking for anything other than Rosen winning. Likewise I think Sinema will probably end up winning AZ in the end (will take a week or 2), but it will of course be close, and it is quite possible it could still go to McSally.

Basically anything urban/suburban = death zone for Rs. Anything rural = death zone for Ds. There are a handful of exceptions here and there, but they will be Blanched away over the next couple of cycles.

[Tintrlvr]

One favorable county result for Heller: 66-33 in Douglas, up from 62-30 for Trump. But that is only a 1-point improvement on Trump's margin when he's eroding around 2 points on the margins elsewhere. And of course Trump lost by 2 points so he needs more than 1 point of gains relative to Trump to win.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

California update:

1. DeLeon is doing ridiculously well. We'll see what happens as the remaining 70% comes in.

2. Jeff Denham is probably going to lose. Stanislaus County, which is supporting him, is almost completely done counting, whereas bluer San Joaquin is only just coming in.

3. Katie Hill vs Steve Knight is still a complete tossup.

4. Young Kim looks good, but it'll depend on what bits of Orange County are still outstanding.

5. Mimi Waters also look good, but it could absolutely go either way.

6. Levin and Rouda both look on track to win.

7. Duncan Hunter (blech) also looks safe.

[Gass3268]

RIP Heller

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1060057306237288448

[Hammy]

Just going to point this out... Kara Eastman is only down by 4 in NE-02 with 88% reporting.

Maybe, just maybe, if national Democratic groups like DCCC, House Majority PAC, etc which spent hardly anything there had spent a few million more there instead, perhaps it could have been enough.

But we will never know, because they never really gave her a chance.

Yep. A perfect example of the corrupt Democrat leadership shooting themselves in the foot yet again. It's why they lost in 2016 and why they are under-performing again tonight.

Imagine thinking Democrats are underperforming in this election.

God, the left sucks in the country.

They are underperforming. They are getting less than the polls showed, especially in the Senate, and doing far worse than most on Atlas thought, because their expectations were even further overblown.

[YE]

RIP Heller

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1060057306237288448

RIP......

[Sestak]

Yeah, people here feeling very optimistic after that Washoe number.