Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/1060737851426566145?s=21

So if that favors Nelson and the undervotes in Broward pan out, then Nelson probably (?) wins.

Knowing that those overseas ballots are Dem-skewing explains a bit more why Scott was sweating so much at his press conference.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/1060737851426566145?s=21

I imagine this would drop Scott's lead below 10,000.

It doesn't matter until 2000 really and then Nelson would be lucky to win.
Recounts dont flip 10,000 vote margins.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Scott truly deserves to be senator

No candidate deserves to be anything. The only people who deserve anything are the voters, and the voters deserve to have their votes properly counted. Nobody is entitled to political office in a democracy - that is supposed to be up to the will of the people.

[Fargobison]

I've not been following Florida at all (been trying to stay off of politics for a while). Can someone ELI5 what's going on?

The votes are being counted, and Republicans are complaining because they oppose democracy.

It may sound harsh, but it's true.

There are some legit compliants, the Broward county election supervisor is legitmatelly incompetent and is struggling to answer simple questions. I'm not saying anything shady is happening but it isn't  a good look, this needs to be her last election.

[GP270watch]

Scott certainly doesn't sound like someone who is winning.

He was sweating and ranting like a man who's about to be caught.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So, FWIW...



The part in the red is the part with the undervote. This is the FL-24 part of Broward County.

And the FL-24 part of Broward County voted for Clinton over Trump by 24,237 to 8,010 in 2016 (73.4% to 24.2%).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dzkbgPlIKdp6e8dhWWD2lOsTr537orDNunLRBOTHx2o/edit#gid=255036234

[Aurelio21]

Obviously, anybody who feels affiliated with the Trump party can fabricate "alternative facts" as well:

Margin Scott-Nelson NOW(2018/11/08 10:50 pm EST): 15100 on FEW(floridaelectionwatch)

-2000 pending from Broward County: New margin About 13000

-2000 from 20k oversea VBM breaking 55:45 Nelson

-16000 from 23k undervotes from Broward which are no undervotes

= A possible Victory for Nelson with a margin of 5000 votes

If there would be no chance of these votes flipping the race, why does Gov. Scott sue the electoral officers of Broward County? This only makes sense if he tries to stop the 0.5 automatic recount. In the statement, he gives misleading statements about Hillary Clinton's lawyer representing Sen. Nelson.

Sorry, dear apologists of Gov. Scott: In the last 2 years we all witnessed these deflectory techniques. Everytime Kellyanne Conway seems to be cornered, she tries to deflect on "Crooked Hillary" and "Maxine Waters". This is getting old.

[lfromnj]

Obviously, anybody who feels affiliated with the Trump party can fabricate "alternative facts" as well:

Margin Scott-Nelson NOW(2018/11/08 10:50 pm EST): 15100 on FEW(floridaelectionwatch)

-2000 pending from Broward County: New margin About 13000

-2000 from 20k oversea VBM breaking 55:45 Nelson

-16000 from 23k undervotes from Broward which are no undervotes

= A possible Victory for Nelson with a margin of 5000 votes

If there would be no chance of these votes flipping the race, why does Gov. Scott sue the electoral officers of Broward County? This only makes sense if he tries to stop the 0.5 automatic recount. In the statement, he gives misleading statements about Hillary Clinton's lawyer representing Sen. Nelson.

Sorry, dear apologists of Gov. Scott: In the last 2 years we all witnessed these deflectory techniques. Everytime Kellyanne Conway seems to be cornered, she tries to deflect on "Crooked Hillary" and "Maxine Waters". This is getting old.

lmao at a 5000 vote recount winning
Show me a way to get to 2k and then Nelson can win.

[Panda Express]

I've not been following Florida at all (been trying to stay off of politics for a while). Can someone ELI5 what's going on?

Rick Scott is trying to steal the election but those of us on Atlas Forum are foiling him

[Zaybay]

Obviously, anybody who feels affiliated with the Trump party can fabricate "alternative facts" as well:

Margin Scott-Nelson NOW(2018/11/08 10:50 pm EST): 15100 on FEW(floridaelectionwatch)

-2000 pending from Broward County: New margin About 13000

-2000 from 20k oversea VBM breaking 55:45 Nelson

-16000 from 23k undervotes from Broward which are no undervotes

= A possible Victory for Nelson with a margin of 5000 votes

If there would be no chance of these votes flipping the race, why does Gov. Scott sue the electoral officers of Broward County? This only makes sense if he tries to stop the 0.5 automatic recount. In the statement, he gives misleading statements about Hillary Clinton's lawyer representing Sen. Nelson.

Sorry, dear apologists of Gov. Scott: In the last 2 years we all witnessed these deflectory techniques. Everytime Kellyanne Conway seems to be cornered, she tries to deflect on "Crooked Hillary" and "Maxine Waters". This is getting old.

lmao at a 5000 vote recount winning
Show me a way to get to 2k and then Nelson can win.

Seriously, they did the math. There are 23K votes that may have been miscounted, ones that can only be counted in a hand by hand recount. There is clearly a path, it just needs this to be a machine error, and not a purposeful one(it is more likely a machine error, as absentees and mail in ballots had the same problem).

[Aurelio21]

Obviously, anybody who feels affiliated with the Trump party can fabricate "alternative facts" as well:

Margin Scott-Nelson NOW(2018/11/08 10:50 pm EST): 15100 on FEW(floridaelectionwatch)

-2000 pending from Broward County: New margin About 13000

-2000 from 20k oversea VBM breaking 55:45 Nelson

-16000 from 23k undervotes from Broward which are no undervotes

= A possible Victory for Nelson with a margin of 5000 votes

If there would be no chance of these votes flipping the race, why does Gov. Scott sue the electoral officers of Broward County? This only makes sense if he tries to stop the 0.5 automatic recount. In the statement, he gives misleading statements about Hillary Clinton's lawyer representing Sen. Nelson.

Sorry, dear apologists of Gov. Scott: In the last 2 years we all witnessed these deflectory techniques. Everytime Kellyanne Conway seems to be cornered, she tries to deflect on "Crooked Hillary" and "Maxine Waters". This is getting old.

lmao at a 5000 vote recount winning
Show me a way to get to 2k and then Nelson can win.

First of all, try something against your possible dyscalculasia.

All the information in this thread leads to a 15000-20000 = -5000 Scott thus +5000 Nelson estimate.

[Pollster]

Given the amount of spending on the race from both parties, I find it extremely hard to believe that 20-30k people "missed" the Senate race and "forgot" to vote in it, regardless of where it was placed on the ballot.

[Aurelio21]

Seriously, they did the math. There are 23K votes that may have been miscounted, ones that can only be counted in a hand by hand recount. There is clearly a path, it just needs this to be a machine error, and not a purposeful one(it is more likely a machine error, as absentees and mail in ballots had the same problem).

Thanks for assisting. There are 3 possible sources from which Sen Nelson still can pull this out:

20k VBM , the missing latest report of Broward county and the 23k undervotes.

The press conference of Gov.Scott follows the same path which bully Trump uses to intimidate people. I've seen these shameless accusation tatics over and over again.

Seriously to all Trump apologists: Is there anything why he MUST mention Hillary Clinton's association with a lawyer in this totally unrelated topic? He accuses the Broward county election official with alledged fraud without presenting any proof.
Just like Brian Kemp who declared himself victor before the last votes have been counted

Most likely, one of the votung machines has malfunctioned thus there must be a recount as the result is under the 0.5% threshold. Gov. Scott says that there should be no recount as the lawyer is connected to HRC. This is totally bananas and on Conway-level. He should have mentioned Maxine Waters to solidify his totally convinving arguments ;-)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don't care about Florida at this point. Can someone say something about AZ?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Obviously, anybody who feels affiliated with the Trump party can fabricate "alternative facts" as well:

Margin Scott-Nelson NOW(2018/11/08 10:50 pm EST): 15100 on FEW(floridaelectionwatch)

-2000 pending from Broward County: New margin About 13000

-2000 from 20k oversea VBM breaking 55:45 Nelson

-16000 from 23k undervotes from Broward which are no undervotes

= A possible Victory for Nelson with a margin of 5000 votes

If there would be no chance of these votes flipping the race, why does Gov. Scott sue the electoral officers of Broward County? This only makes sense if he tries to stop the 0.5 automatic recount. In the statement, he gives misleading statements about Hillary Clinton's lawyer representing Sen. Nelson.

Sorry, dear apologists of Gov. Scott: In the last 2 years we all witnessed these deflectory techniques. Everytime Kellyanne Conway seems to be cornered, she tries to deflect on "Crooked Hillary" and "Maxine Waters". This is getting old.

lmao at a 5000 vote recount winning
Show me a way to get to 2k and then Nelson can win.

First of all, try something against your possible dyscalculasia.

All the information in this thread leads to a 15000-20000 = -5000 Scott thus +5000 Nelson estimate.

Note, however, that I posted above that in the FL-24 area of Broward County, the 2016 Presidential vote was Clinton 73.4% to 24.2%. So supposing that there are 23k ballots from that area and they split about 75-25 for Nelson, that would come out to a margin of about 11500, not a margin of 16000.

So that would change your #s to this:

Margin Scott-Nelson NOW(2018/11/08 10:50 pm EST): 15100 on FEW(floridaelectionwatch)

-2000 pending from Broward County: New margin About 13000

-2000 from 20k oversea VBM breaking 55:45 Nelson

-11500 from 23k undervotes from Broward which are no undervotes

= A possible Victory for Nelson with a margin of 500 votes



Which is much closer. Personally, I do sincerely hope that the final result ends up being Nelson winning by 537 votes. It would be epic karmic justice.

If all your numbers are about correct, then we would be pretty close to that, so I hope that is what happens.

[Aurelio21]

[…]


Which is much closer. Personally, I do sincerely hope that the final result ends up being Nelson winning by 537 votes. It would be epic karmic justice.

If all your numbers are about correct, then we would be pretty close to that, so I hope that is what happens.

The VBM is mentioned in a post somewhat earlier. The final Broward County no is mentioned/linked by Steve Schale. I do not know if these are totally correct, yet this is a plausible way to explain the murky press conference of Gov. Scott.

Honestly, if you had invested 30 M$ into this, what would you have done? I would even put Hillary, Obama's birth certificate, George Soros and Nancy Pelosi as a reasoning/deflectoral argument to make "The Base" forget about some obscure recount law which costs me the election ;-)

[KingSweden]

I don't care about Florida at this point. Can someone say something about AZ?

Re: AZ, it’ll be a narrow result but I’m not sure I see much of a path for McSally

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I don't care about Florida at this point. Can someone say something about AZ?

OK, something about Arizona.

Mark Kelly, an Astronaut from Arizona who previously launched into space from Cape Canaveral in Florida, might potentially run for Senate in Arizona in 2020.

If he does so, he would be the second Senator to have launched into Space from Cape Canaveral in Florida - and depending on the outcome of the 2018 Senate race in Florida, he might serve simultaneously with his colleague Bill Nelson, Senator from Florida who also launched into space from Cape Canaveral. Voters love Spacemen, you know.

Have you had your Arizona fix, and now can we get back to Florida?

[Snipee356]

I don't care about Florida at this point. Can someone say something about AZ?

Mark Kelly, an Astronaut from Arizona who previously launched into space from Cape Canaveral in Florida, might potentially run for Senate in Arizona in 2020.

What about his wife, Giffords? She has a very inspiring story. Though I would completely understand if she doesn't want to run for office again.

[Aurelio21]

I don't care about Florida at this point. Can someone say something about AZ?

Sorry, Kirsten Sinema is winning, as the VBM is skewing democratic. McSally is sueing their own Republican SoS Michelle Reagan trying to stop her counting. But this does not work, she did not have a press conference at which she blames Hillary Clinton, George Soros, the Caravan (which does not exist anymore as Fox News has failed to deliver the HoR to Trump) or Nancy Pelosi.

[Roronoa D. Law]

It must be a machine error I don't see how people could miss it the senate race.
 

[pppolitics]

I don't care about Florida at this point. Can someone say something about AZ?

It's ironic how people here talking on and on and on about Florida when there's a race is Arizona that the Democrats are can (and maybe even slightly favored) to win.

[Virginiá]

Is there any chance that Democrats pick up the AZ SoS? If so, how likely?

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Wow. Honestly, as a Democrat, we all have A LOT to be happy about.

Our strength in the house continues to grow with multiple surprise victories. Kendra Horn in Ok ( !! ), Lucy McBath in GA ( !! ), and more.

We've won 7 governors seats and, let's be honest, the RINO Governors in many blue states aren't really a danger to a Democratic agenda.

It increasingly seems like we'll keep Republicans to a single seat gain in the Senate, - or maybe even keep it to the status quo. That's a HUGE victory. Nevada was won easily. Arizona looks like a likely gain. And Florida is increasingly looking like a surprise HOLD while even the Governors race could, in a recount, flip!

This will make retaking the Senate in 2020, imo, LIKELY.

And if we take the Presidency in 2020, bam, you have Democratic control of all 3 branches of government.

This was entirely a blue wave, maybe not everywhere -- but in enough places to matter.

[Wiz in Wis]

It must be a machine error I don't see how people could miss it the senate race.
 

You don't see how people could screw this up? In Florida, the universe's center of screwing things up?