Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Ebsy]

Hopefully we can get a solid number on ballots in Broward County.

[Badger]

So is there a good chance for Nelson?

Outside of it actually being a machine error in Broward with the undervotes, very unlikely, though not impossible.

But what's the chance of that? As noted the under votes, or possible under counts, are very highly concentrated geographically. While I'm probably just Wishing on a Star here, then at least slightly indicates it may be a machine error.

[Skunk]

Scott will win since God hates our state. Hopefully DeSantis slashes all remaining education/social services to hell in order to give people here a full taste of what they voted for

Florida is the new Oklahoma!

[Gass3268]

Hopefully we can get a solid number on ballots in Broward County.

A lot of the rhetoric from Scott, Trump and other Republicans have been horrific, but I agree that Broward County has been thoroughly inept and incompetent with this whole process. Brenda Snipes (Jeb appointee) deserves to lose her job, but in many ways this looks to be a county culture issue as the last person was removed for being awful too.

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1061007651973357569

I have to say, the fact they couldn’t even provide *estimates* earlier was ridiculous

[Thatkat04]

Scott will win since God hates our state. Hopefully DeSantis slashes all remaining education/social services to hell in order to give people here a full taste of what they voted for

I saw a commercial for Rick Scott with an old woman telling her daughter and grand daughter how Bill Nelson is a Washington insider who will vote to cut her medicare. Would not surprise me if alot of old people here actually believe that.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061013959988273152

Almost no change, Simena up 8,619

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061013959988273152

Almost no change, Simena up 8,619

Netting so few out of there is catastrophic for McSally. She’d better hope for weak Pima and Maricopa numbers for Sinema now

[Thatkat04]

Im not gonna get into hyperbole or anything, but that Pinal county batch is not a good sign for McSally.

[Gass3268]

Settlement was reached between Republicans and Democrats over the signature issue:

https://twitter.com/JoshuaADouglas/status/1061014309889658880

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061013959988273152

Almost no change, Simena up 8,619

Pinal County is supposed to be the biggest county that favors McSally.

[Cashew]

Trump calling for a new election in Arizona?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1060993836984324096

He has no idea what he's talking about, but he's only making things worse and setting the groundwork for him to dispute his own election in 2020.

He knows exactly what he's doing.

[henster]

I feel like we can call this once Maricopa dumps at 7, Pima should pad her lead before it a bit.

[wesmoorenerd]

PredictIt updates in the House (Dem improvement in red, Pub improvement in blue)

California 10 (Harder-Denham) 90-11 or 97-13
California 25 (Hill-Knight) 99-1
California 39 (Cisneros-Kim) 72-43
California 45 (Porter-Walters) 83-20 or 81-19
California 48 (Rouda-Rohrabacher) 99-1
Georgia 07 (Bourdeaux-Woodall) 12-88
Maine 02 (Golden-Poliquin) 90-11
New Jersey 03 (Kim-MacArthur) 96-4
New York 22 (Brindisi-Tenney) 87-13
New York 27 (McMurray-Collins) 2-98
North Carolina 09 (McCready-Harris) 1-90
Texas 23 (Ortiz Jones-Hurd) 4-96
Utah 04 (McAdams-Love) 92-10

Whole lotta noise here. The only real shifts came in CA-39 and CA-45 (where people literally never learn), GA-07, ME-02, NY-22, and UT-04

[Thatkat04]

I feel like we can call this once Maricopa dumps at 7, Pima should pad her lead before it a bit.

I dont think we're getting a Pima update tonight. I think they said their next update is tuesday.

[new_patomic]

So is there a good chance for Nelson?

Outside of it actually being a machine error in Broward with the undervotes, very unlikely, though not impossible.

But what's the chance of that? As noted the under votes, or possible under counts, are very highly concentrated geographically. While I'm probably just Wishing on a Star here, then at least slightly indicates it may be a machine error.

It's possible, but I wouldn't say the under-vote in the specific area is indicative of anything. I believe its been shown that in that area there wasn't a House race or other election below, so the Senate race was only one under the instructions which makes it quite possible it simply wasn't seen.

Unfortunately it's more than likely than not we lose the FL-Sen because some people didn't look at their entire ballot.

[Oryxslayer]

PredictIt updates in the House (Dem improvement in red, Pub improvement in blue)

California 10 (Harder-Denham) 90-11 or 97-13
California 25 (Hill-Knight) 99-1
California 39 (Cisneros-Kim) 72-43
California 45 (Porter-Walters) 83-20 or 81-19
California 48 (Rouda-Rohrabacher) 99-1
Georgia 07 (Bourdeaux-Woodall) 12-88
Maine 02 (Golden-Poliquin) 90-11
New Jersey 03 (Kim-MacArthur) 96-4
New York 22 (Brindisi-Tenney) 87-13
New York 27 (McMurray-Collins) 2-98
North Carolina 09 (McCready-Harris) 1-90
Texas 23 (Ortiz Jones-Hurd) 4-96
Utah 04 (McAdams-Love) 92-10

Whole lotta noise here. The only real shifts came in CA-39 and CA-45 (where people literally never learn), GA-07, ME-02, NY-22, and UT-04

Colored TX-23 wrong, might confuse some people.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Looks like Democrats will have a 45-8 majority in the CA congressional delegation and an 11-1 majority in the NJ congressional delegation. Pretty impressive consolidation of federal representation in these two states.

[new_patomic]

Judges Order Palm Beach, Broward Counties To Allow Review Of Ballots


Looks like Palm Beach County is going to be ordered to reveal the names of those who voted provisionally. Not that it might even matter because of the deadline.

[wesmoorenerd]

PredictIt updates in the House (Dem improvement in red, Pub improvement in blue)

California 10 (Harder-Denham) 90-11 or 97-13
California 25 (Hill-Knight) 99-1
California 39 (Cisneros-Kim) 72-43
California 45 (Porter-Walters) 83-20 or 81-19
California 48 (Rouda-Rohrabacher) 99-1
Georgia 07 (Bourdeaux-Woodall) 12-88
Maine 02 (Golden-Poliquin) 90-11
New Jersey 03 (Kim-MacArthur) 96-4
New York 22 (Brindisi-Tenney) 87-13
New York 27 (McMurray-Collins) 2-98
North Carolina 09 (McCready-Harris) 1-90
Texas 23 (Ortiz Jones-Hurd) 4-96
Utah 04 (McAdams-Love) 92-10

Whole lotta noise here. The only real shifts came in CA-39 and CA-45 (where people literally never learn), GA-07, ME-02, NY-22, and UT-04

Colored TX-23 wrong, might confuse some people.

I didn't, actually. Ortiz Jones' chances improved a little bit since a few days ago, although it's just noise.

[Tintrlvr]

Trump calling for a new election in Arizona?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1060993836984324096

He has no idea what he's talking about, but he's only making things worse and setting the groundwork for him to dispute his own election in 2020.

He knows exactly what he's doing.

And you know he’ll call Sinema “the illegitimate Senator from Arizona” every time they clash over the next two years, too.

[lfromnj]

Looks like Democrats will have a 45-8 majority in the CA congressional delegation and an 11-1 majority in the NJ congressional delegation. Pretty impressive consolidation of federal representation in these two states.

Probably going 46-7 in 2020. Im honestly shocked with the burb stomping that Hunter didn't go down or atleast come closer and that Mcmurray came closer than najjar most likely.

[CellarDoor]

Santa Cruz posted 906 votes about 30 minutes ago.  Sinema won 74.8% of them. 

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Trump calling for a new election in Arizona?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1060993836984324096

He has no idea what he's talking about, but he's only making things worse and setting the groundwork for him to dispute his own election in 2020.

He knows exactly what he's doing.

And you know he’ll call Sinema “the illegitimate Senator from Arizona” every time they clash over the next two years, too.

That’s immaterial. What matters is his rants might inspire one of his cultists to take Sinema out

She need not worry about that. Only thing she needs to worry about is winning this thing. If she does, she will instantly become among the most favorite dems in DC, and she will get all the funding she needs for any security.

[Tintrlvr]

Looks like Democrats will have a 45-8 majority in the CA congressional delegation and an 11-1 majority in the NJ congressional delegation. Pretty impressive consolidation of federal representation in these two states.

Probably going 46-7 in 2020. Im honestly shocked with the burb stomping that Hunter didn't go down or atleast come closer and that Mcmurray came closer than najjar most likely.

The only R who might lose in CA in 2020 is Valadao. Hunter will probably be forced out at some point (whether a retirement in 2020, failing to make the top two in the primary to an R challenger or resignation before then), but he won’t lose reelection to a Democrat. That district is not there yet for the Dems.