Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[J. J.]

9:30 AM-Phila 11th ward

I was number 38.

I generally vote later about 1:30 PM. In a presidential year, we'd get 100-120 by that point.

My guess is that if will normal or slightly below normal for a midterm.  If there were a strong Republican statewide candidate, I'd be very happy. 

[J. J.]

Heavy rain in NJ. Will it affect turnout?

The rain is supposed to be over by 2-3 so it’s only during the lowest-turnout part of the day anyway.

Plenty of studies have shown rain only has a miniscule effect on voting, and even smaller effect on partisanship. The times when rain does matter are those where the election doesn't matter, and we already can assume the result.

It depends where it is raining.  Great weather in a Democratic area and bad weather in a Republican area can easily effect the vote.

[J. J.]

Pinellas's site is pretty great for seeing turnout by party live:

Mail vote: R +3,503 (1.5% margin)
Early vote: D +5,325 (9.7%)
Election Day so far: R +4,985 (8.5%)

Overall: R +3,163 (0.9%)

The final raw margin in 2016 was about R +10,000 between all three types.

Sounds like solid numbers for the GOP, and the day isn't over yet. I wonder what 2016/2104 numbers were at this point of the day.

I might be wrong, but isn't there typically a surge for democrats after 4 pm when people comes back from work?

There are generally two periods of heavy voting, in the morning before 9:00 AM and after 4:00 PM.   The before 9 crowd are also workers. 

[J. J.]

A cool tracker of turnout in Philadelphia by ward: https://jtannen.github.io/election_tracker.html

Based on self-reporting though, so perhaps take it with a grain of salt.

It looks like the one ward that is colored yellow with disproportionately high turnout is the ward with the University of Pennsylvania. So that looks like probably very good student/youth turnout there FWIW.

Of course they must all be voting R because Trump is a Wharton alum.

Disproportionately low Hispanic and black turnout, which is what I was seeing.

Edited to add:  No on students; Temple University is the middle of North Philadelphia and the area is dark blue.

[J. J.]

I remember in 2004 the people on FOX were talking about how Bush just couldn't close to deal on being re-elected. That was at about 5:55.

And in 2004, the exit polls were overly optimistic for Dems and were predicting Kerry would win. But of course, it didn't work out that way when the actual #s came in. So that illustrates both that the coverage is colored by early exit polls, but also that the exit polls can be wrong.

Same in 2016.   

[J. J.]

Democrats HOLD Guam-At Large.

Where is Dixville's Notch when you need it?   

[J. J.]

Fox's polling outfit is usually pretty legit...and aren't they doing it in conjunction with the AP?

I mean, it's possible both sets of figures we've been seeing are accurate; not a lot of overlap posted here in terms of the questions. I guess we'll find out soon enough!

The polling seems have bias toward Democrats, for some reason. 

[J. J.]

Braun.

Phila expects 450,000 turnout. 2012 was 690,000.

[J. J.]

CNN raw results:  https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/house

[J. J.]

From what I can tell so far, and it's very early, but Braun seems to be improving on Mourdock's 2012 performance.

Bingo.

I want to see the turnout in Lake. 

[J. J.]

Does KY, specifically KY-6 report slowly? Definitely watching this one closely.

There are some early results, which don't mean anything. 

[J. J.]

DDHQ has MgGrath Up 54-44

CNN has McG up by 0.4. 

[J. J.]

The Libertarian is at 40% in Vermillion county. I'm guessing that was a mistake.

Yes, Lib has about 6%.  Braun is leading. 

[J. J.]

Barr is up by 7.5 with 2% in. 

[J. J.]

Braun is behind by 10 points in Ft. Wayne.  It seems like he is out performing, but I'll let the IN people determine that. 

[J. J.]

538 now gives Braun a 70% chance of winning.

Where did you find that,


I just see 538 give their pre election forcasts

This.

[J. J.]

Braun is losing the Lake by 34 points.  How does fit with previous years?

[J. J.]

Braun is losing the Lake by 34 points.  Hoe does fit with previous years?

Mourdock lost it by 40.

Braun will win this; by how much will be the question.

[J. J.]

KY-6 Barr up by about 2.

[J. J.]

Donnelly down to 12% odds on 538.

Since you asked, AP and Fox are using different exit polls

[J. J.]

You better check FL, Gov is tie with 80+ in. D leads 0.4

[J. J.]

Scott and Desantis just pulled ahead @85

[J. J.]

FL is 89-90% in.

[J. J.]

Bratt has pulled ahead.   

[J. J.]

Guys, outstanding Florida vote is mostly in Broward and Miami-Dade.

It is 91% in and both Scott and DeSantis are increasing their leads.