Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Xing]

Since traffic on this site has been especially high this year, I fully expect it to crash tomorrow night.

[Xing]

The exit polls are overall encouraging for Democrats, but have to be taken with truckloads of salt. Let's see what the vote starts to look like in Indiana in... less than in hour.

[Xing]

Oh god are we actually trying to extrapolate from early exits?

Welcome to Atlas!

[Xing]

Donnelly and Barr both win in a squeaker.

[Xing]

Peak Atlas. Clearly the outcome of the entire night can be called from initial results from a couple of counties.

[Xing]

Tester's probably going to win by about the same margin as 2012, as I had predicted throughout the cycle. I wouldn't say that winning by less than 5% each time makes him an electoral juggernaut, but his seat can't be ruled out for Democrats in 2024 like Manchin's. Looking at the margin, either Manchin retires in 2024, or he loses.

Does anyone know which way the remaining ballots from the California races are expected to lean?

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/KING5Seattle/status/1060366315066613760

RIP Greedo
RIP Rossi fanboys

Remember when Rossi was such a Strong Candidate™ that he would beat Weak Candidate™ Shrill Schrier even in a Democratic tsunami because he carried the district a decade ago?

B-b-b-b-but Democrats have NEVER won this seat before!!! And Democrats haven't won NV-GOV since, like, forever man!

Another electoral truism bites the dust, Dino Rossi loses again. Refreshing to see Democrats finally win this seat, and come reasonably close in WA-03, showing that Herrera Beutler isn't some unbeatable titan.

[Xing]

The gap still looks a bit too wide for Nelson, but if there are a lot more votes to be counted, he may actually have a chance. I'd want to see how much is actually left out, and where it is.

Anyway, I'm happy to see that more posters are joining the "NV is not a Toss-Up" club.

[Xing]

The AZ and FL GOPs sound... nervous.

Arizona GOP might have a reason to be

Florida on the other hand... I don’t get it

They went from being 100% sure that Scott had it to... at the very least, less than 100%, even if it's 98-99%. Even if Nelson needs a miracle to win, the fact that it's gone from being over to not quite being over definitely warrants Republicans at least being nervous. They seem much more nervous in Arizona, though, which makes sense.

[Xing]

This whole situation is just peak Florida. At least control of the Senate isn't being decided by this.

[Xing]

Are there still votes in Pima left to be counted?

[Xing]

It's amazing that Dems have done better in NV/AZ/TX than MO/IN/ND. I'm not surprised, but it's fun to see real demographic destiny come true.

Yeah, although FL definitely didn't vote to the left of Wisconsin, like everyone was saying it would.

[Xing]

It's amazing to see Republicans wanting to stop the counting of votes in Arizona, Florida and Georgia. Trump is testing out this strategy so he can use it for himself in 2020.

It's kind of sad how counting all the votes is seen as "stealing" an election. While "stop the count" is an Atlas meme, it's (almost) never meant seriously. If all the votes are in after a hand recount and Scott is ahead, then Democrats will have to accept that Nelson lost. But in an election this close, it is important to count all of the votes carefully. Like in NY-22, Brindisi is currently narrowly ahead, and probably will win, but I'm certainly not against counting all of the absentees and a recount to make sure of the results.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1061035935721111552

Funny how it's only unfair when Trump doesn't get what he wants.

[Xing]

Filling in a bubble isn't rocket science people.

We're talking about American voters here. Don't be too hard on them.

Yeah, and we need to grade Florida in particular on a curve.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061355448492744704

This was actually a big one for McSally, she won by 25%, but it was only a net gain of 400 votes. Unless she gets that kind of a margin from Maricopa as well, there's no path for her.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061343868216438784

Slightly underrunning by McSally; not as badly as some other counties

Mohave is the most Republican county in Arizona.

It appears to have either exhausted all its votes or very close to it.

I really cannot see a path for McSally. The vast majority of the votes that are left are in Sinema's territory.

Coconino, Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal are the only 4 counties left with a significant number of outstanding ballots.

So it's over unless Pinal and especially the last batch of Maricopa are McSally blowouts.  And Maricopa should have one more Lean Sinema batch before then.

You got it.

I guess Wasserman should call it for Sinema once Pima and Maricopa come in today.

Are we getting anything from Pima today, though? I thought we'd get more from Pima on Tuesday.

[Xing]

Stick a fork in McSally, she's done.

when will dems stick a fork in Nelson?

I mean, there's a difference between a 1.3% deficit and a 0.15% deficit, though most of us aren't really holding out much hope at all for Nelson. Either way, the votes in both states should be counted in their entirety, and it's disheartening (though not surprising) that there are many in the country who can't at least agree on that.

[Xing]

Funny, when Democrats lose: "You lost, get over it." When Republicans lose: "Voter fraud! Finding votes! They stole the election!"

[Xing]

Not a ton from McSally territory left:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061794284427329537

I really don't understand why outlets aren't calling this race yet.

They're probably waiting until it's almost mathematically impossible for McSally to take the lead. While it's absurd to think that she'll win the remaining Maricopa vote by 25%, they'll probably wait until she'd need to win it by 60-80% before calling the race.

[Xing]

A small number of vote looks like it just dropped in AZ. Gaynor up 424. Might be Cochise or La Paz

It was Yavapai.

[Xing]

Kim's lead narrowed .4% in Orange County.

Walters is only up .4% now.

Where are people getting these numbers? NYT still has Walters up 1% and Kim up 1.4%.

[Xing]

In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that...

[Xing]

In the first round of voting in LA-SEN 2014, Mary Landrieu got more votes than Bill Cassidy, fair and square. And yet, she's not a Senator anymore. I wonder why Poliquin isn't complaining about that...

You're mixing up apples with oranges here. Cassidy beat Landrieu fair and square in a Runoff. Meanwhile in Maine a Computer decides the Race. How weird! Maine has no Runoff.

Actually, people who voted third party, but put Golden as their second choice, above Poliquin, will decide the election. Thus, Golden will beat Poliquin fair and square among those who didn't put either one as their first choice.

[Xing]

I await Republicans claiming that the Republican Party of Utah is guilty of voter fraud and "finding" votes for Love.