Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[MT Treasurer]

This is amazing.

[MT Treasurer]

Tester probably still wins Garfield County tbqh imho

[MT Treasurer]

I was ridiculed for not blindly trusting NBC/Marist polls, though.

[MT Treasurer]

I changed my FL-SEN prediction from Scott to Nelson at the very last minute because the "gold standard" Quinnipiac showed him winning by 7, lmao.

[MT Treasurer]

MT TREASURER:

Are Tester's current numbers in Lewis and Clark/Yellowstone enough to win?

Definitely. These are terrible numbers for Rosendale, actually.

[MT Treasurer]

This election is so ing weird.

[MT Treasurer]

WV-SEN is a heartbreaker.

[MT Treasurer]

Tester is winning Lake (the "bellwether county") by 1, FWIW. This will obviously tighten, but it’s really not looking good for Rosendale.

[MT Treasurer]

The last thing I want to dump in this thread are the margins for each county, ranked here from most R to most D. This may be useful if you want to follow another statewide or Senate race in the state in 2018 or 2020 on election night.

Garfield: R+84.81
Carter: R+73.04
Fallon: R+65.51
Petroleum: R+64.71
Powder River: R+61.34
Wibaux: R+60.8
Phillips: R+58.95               
McCone: R+57.89             
Musselshell: R+55.45
Prairie: R+55.13
Richland: R+51.09
Daniels: R+50.58
Golden Valley: R+48.86
Sweet Grass: R+43.34
Stillwater: R+42.06
Meagher: R+41.29
Treasure: R+40.36
Fergus: R+39.71
Dawson: R+39.4
Judith Basin: R+39.2
Broadwater: R+37.19
Wheatland: R+36.02
Lincoln: R+34.63       
Valley: R+34.45     
Toole: R+34.17                     
Sanders: R+34.06
Powell: R+33.85
Liberty: R+33.61
Beaverhead: R+30.46
Custer: R+28.5                   
Madison: R+27.26 
Granite: R+26.38
Teton: R+24.63
Pondera: R+24.48
Ravalli: R+24.27 
Chouteau: R+24.15
Mineral: R+24.1
Rosebud: R+21.08           
Jefferson: R+18.94
Flathead: R+18.86             
Yellowstone: R+18.35 
Sheridan: R+16.37
Carbon: R+12.33             
Lake: R+7.16       
Cascade: R+6.97     
-------------------------------------------------------         
Hill: D+0.64
Park: D+4.73
Roosevelt: D+5.48
Big Horn: D+7.36     
Blaine: D+7.8                               
Lewis and Clark: D+9.34
Gallatin: D+13.96               
Missoula: D+31.63     
Deer Lodge: D+33.64       
Glacier: D+33.91               
Silver Bow: D+34.19         

The county which voted closest to the statewide result (R+5.59) was Cascade and not Lake. Interestingly enough (though not that surprising), every county won by Gianforte was more Republican than the state as a whole.

So yeah, I guess the Titanium Tester meme was real, after all.

[MT Treasurer]

McCaskill is gone, thank goodness!

[MT Treasurer]

It seems like this was a realignment midterm.

[MT Treasurer]

Bullock was down at this point in 2016 and won by 4 in the end. Tester should be fine.

[MT Treasurer]

Tester is  #populist so he will win garfield county due to a recount but will lose Gallatin due to it being a Romney Clinton county.

LMFAO

[MT Treasurer]

Rosendale is not a carpetbagger.

[MT Treasurer]

Rosendale is not a carpetbagger.

Not a senator either.

That wasn’t his question, though. No one expected Rosendale to win, so it’s kinda a moot point anyway.

[MT Treasurer]

Holding out hope for 54R/46D, but I’m sure Dems will win one or both races because of course they will.

[MT Treasurer]

^Seriously. He thought IN and MO were far less likely to flip than TX/TN/even ND(?).

Anyway, it’s certainly true that no one should be counted out two years before an election, but things really aren’t looking good for Cory Gardner, Doug Jones, and Steve Daines right now.

[MT Treasurer]

^Seriously. He thought IN and MO were far less likely to flip than TX/TN/even ND(?).

Anyway, it’s certainly true that no one should be counted out two years before an election, but things really aren’t looking good for Cory Gardner, Doug Jones, and Steve Daines right now.

Though who decides to run in MT heavily affects Daines' prospects.

Probably, but I think people really underestimate how vulnerable he is. He only won in 2014 because of a perfect storm (Baucus retirement, Walsh's plagiarism scandal, GOP wave, wrong Democratic candidate for the state, national Dems not prioritizing the race, etc.) which likely won’t be replicated in 2020. I have a hard time seeing him beating Steve Bullock, honestly.

[MT Treasurer]

Honestly, I feel a little sorry for Kathleen Williams. I didn’t support her or anything, but she didn’t deserve to do eight points worse than Tester, and it can’t all be chalked up to causes related to her campaign. She could have run a flawless campaign and there still would have been a ton of Trump/Tester/Gianforte voters. She might even lose by more than Rob Quist, which honestly makes me a little uneasy.

[MT Treasurer]

Anyone else think it's funny that with all the fools in here cheering or whining thinking Tester was going to lose and he's going to end up with the biggest victory of his career.

That remains to be seen. It could be a little closer than it was in 2012, but MT Dems definitely did a good job here, while the NRSC completely f**ked this race up.

Speaking of "fools", though.. I remember people here thinking that Nelson would win easily, Donnelly and McCaskill would win, Democrats would take the Senate, etc. Are they "fools" as well?

[MT Treasurer]

No one is denying that Tester is a strong incumbent, but he also benefited from a very Democratic-friendly environment, an extremely energized Democratic base (particularly in Missoula, Bozeman, Helena, and Great Falls, since most rural counties actually swung to Rosendale), poor tactical decisions by the NRSC, a nasty primary which weakened Rosendale, a highly competent Democratic state party, and a mediocre/meh (although hardly terrible) opponent. Take away even one of these factors and this could have been a real race, and you’re kidding yourself if you think he would have been heavily favored even in a Clinton midterm.

[MT Treasurer]

A Republican equivalent of Tester would be a Republican senator from New York who votes like he's from Kansas and somehow keeps getting reelected over and over again.

Montana isn’t nearly as Republican as New York is Democratic...

[MT Treasurer]

A Republican equivalent of Tester would be a Republican senator from New York who votes like he's from Kansas and somehow keeps getting reelected over and over again.

Montana isn’t nearly as Republican as New York is Democratic...

Maybe Connecticut is a better comparison? It has a Republican streak statewide in the way Montana does a Democratic one.

Such comparisons are obviously far from perfect, but I’d say Maine comes closest to it.

[MT Treasurer]

Wait, Nelson could seriously still win?!

I thought this was quite obvious.

Anyway, the trend here should worry Rick Scott, especially since Democrats always win ultra-tight Senate races for some reason.

[MT Treasurer]

Calling it now: MN-SEN 2008 redux.