Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (user search)
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  Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1  (Read 203739 times)
The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« on: November 06, 2018, 06:50:51 PM »
I think what some of you are forgetting is that Donnelly won by 6% in 2012, so he can afford to underperform his 2012 benchmarks. Obviously not by a ton, but still.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2018, 06:52:58 PM »
Also, NYT is auto-updating perfectly fine for me. It does seem to be a bit behind CNN, though.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2018, 07:08:51 PM »
To aid the narrative that Donnelly will have a very different coalition than he did in 2012, he's currently up double digits in Allen County (with Fort Worth), which he lost in 2012.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2018, 07:13:17 PM »
Quote from: FREIWAL on November 06, 2018, 07:11:23 PM
Didn’t Donnelly lose Allen to Mourdock?

Yes.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2018, 08:14:33 PM »

What? A vast majority of the remaining vote is from Hillsborough, Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2018, 08:20:29 PM »
Spanberger looks in good shape to eek out a victory. Its effectively tied and pretty much all of the remaining votes are from Chesterfield and Henrico.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2018, 08:33:30 PM »
The House still looks perfectly fine; yes, it's probably not a landslide, but Democrats are making tossups look like tossups and are easily winning the Lean D races.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2018, 08:41:29 PM »
Where are you guys getting results that are far ahead of the NYT results?
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2018, 08:45:44 PM »
If Mucarsel-Powell keeps her Miami-Dade margin, she has FL-26 it appears. She's slightly ahead with ~80% reporting (according to NYT), most remaining votes are from Miami-Dade, which she is narrowly winning.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2018, 08:49:58 PM »
The Senate admittedly looks bad, but once again the House looks pretty much as expected so far.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2018, 08:51:00 PM »
Looks like Spanberger won; she pulled ahead of Brat, almost all votes have been counted.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2018, 09:01:17 PM »
Bagel's worries are officially quelled: MSNBC has declared Manchin's victory.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2018, 09:23:20 PM »
Gillum is probably done. I think Nelson may still have a small chance.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2018, 09:30:05 PM »
Uh, Bourdeaux is up 13% with 90% reporting according to NYT?
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2018, 09:32:22 PM »
Haven't seen any professional number-crunching on this, but at a glance Kelly looks like she's in really good shape?
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2018, 09:41:18 PM »
Quote from: MillennialModerate on November 06, 2018, 09:37:00 PM
Quote from: iBizzBee on November 06, 2018, 09:34:04 PM
I'd rather be a Democrat than a Republican tonight, period.

Would love to hear the mental gymnastics on this one

Are you serious? You would rather be the party that retains one chamber rather than the party that takes a chamber and wins several governorships?
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2018, 09:46:10 PM »
Taylor seems to have somehow snatched the lead back in VA-02...
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2018, 10:22:16 PM »
Queen Kathleen is up in MT-AL, although barely.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2018, 10:29:26 PM »

Uh... based on what?
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2018, 10:34:45 PM »
Unfortunately it doesn't look great for Slotkin at this point, despite her strong second NYT poll.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2018, 10:54:37 PM »
Tragically, Harris is gonna scrape by in NC-09. Truly one of the worst GOP candidates this cycle, and that's saying a lot.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2018, 11:03:24 PM »
I liked Levine in the primary, but watching Gillum's concession speech makes me realize how charismatic he is. It really is terrible that DeSantis won.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2018, 11:17:21 PM »
I'm surprising that Craig hasn't pulled away yet... I thought that Lewis would be one of the first to go.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2018, 11:22:34 PM »
Williams is underperforming Tester by about 6%, so she'll probably fall just short. But I've been pretty bullish on this race all year, so I'm not giving up yet! I just want to see a giant congressional district be blue on the map once...
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,050
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2018, 11:25:33 PM »
I think it's worth noting that Brown well underperformed expectations, only winning by about 5% despite routinely being up double digits in polling.
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