Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Rain reminder

https://twitter.com/leedrutman/status/1059803877837549569

I wish there was a way to sticky this to the top of every page of this thread like on reddit, but, alas.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Some NPR reporter said "NPR is an increasingly purple state" after Kaine's race got called

lmao

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I'm very concerned. Don't like IN-Sen, don't like FL-06.

IN-SEN is a 22% with 10 of 600 precincts in Marion county voting.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

As long as Dems win all 20 "Dem. favored" and 4 of the "tossup" or "Rep. favored" races according to NYT then Democrats win the house. No need to get hysterical yet. This is a good time to put troll accounts on ignore so they don't rile you up.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

For the House: Dems are up big where they need to win and are losing in the palces that would have made a tsunami. They'll still win the House but won't hold a 30 point lead. That's not amazing but not the end of the world

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Brat with a ~3K lead with nearly all outstanding votes in Henrico and Chesterfield. I think Abby is going to pull through.

2/4 in competitive VA elections isn't amazing but is about in line with expectations. I think it's gone for Luria though.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Donnelly got stomped. Jesus.

Sounds like the Senate is gone for the Democrats.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Luria and Spanberger both in the lead in VA-02 and VA-07. Outstanding areas in both look to be slightly D.

👀

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Looks like Spanberger won; she pulled ahead of Brat, almost all votes have been counted.

73% in and Brat is more than +2 on CNN.   

NYT has 94% reporting and a ~500 vote Spanberger lead. Outstanding votes are in Henrico (97% in, heavy D), Chesterfield (l82% in, lean D) and Spotsylvania (96% in, lean R).

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Looks like it was a major tactical mistake for Democrats to go to the mat in opposing Kavanaugh's nomiantion. Donnelly and Nelson have lost while the one D Senator who voted for him is cruising to re-election.

I don't know how I can live in a world where people get punished for voting against people credibly accused of attempted rape.

It's sickening.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Dems underperforming Senate polls + a Trump campaign boost for Rs makes me very nervous about Montana.

Hugin is still winning in NJ with about a third in

NYT has Hugin behind by ~20K with 31% in.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Tom Perez is on NPR right now and he sounds like a corpse.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Here's a number to watch. Democrats are currently down 0.8% in the House popular vote. That's without NY, CA, OR, or WA.

That's bonkers given the GCB numbers we've been hearing all cycle. Any idea what the benchmark is without those states?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Taylor seems to have somehow snatched the lead back in VA-02...

Outstanding areas look pretty even so I'll bet his margin holds. His lead is ~1K.

But Spanberger looks to be in great shape. 2/4 is not bad for the competitive VA races.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

FL-26 called for Mucarsel-Powell on NPR.

We all expected this but further proof that GOP is purging itself of anybody mildly lukewarm on Trump.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Michigan Senate map so far looking a lot closer to the Trump map than Stabenow's last map...

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

LAURA KELLY JUST GOT CALLED WINNER

don't care if this is the wrong thread but WOW

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Paulsen officially out per AP. Jason Lewis is next hopefully.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Holy cow Luria ha a 4K lead with only votes outstanding in VA Beach and James City. SIX precincts left.

Looks like Luria and Spanberger both held on!

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Holy cow Luria ha a 4K lead with only votes outstanding in VA Beach and James City. SIX precincts left.

Looks like Luria and Spanberger both held on!

They already called for Luria.

Still waiting to call it for Spanberger, but they should soon.

My B I'm following NYT which is calling very conservatively. They have only 8 D gains so far.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Other than KS-Gov and maybe FL-Sen these results aren't that surprising if you're willing to abandon your priors that populist Democrats would win back rural voters.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Other than KS-Gov and maybe FL-Sen these results aren't that surprising if you're willing to abandon your priors that populist Democrats would win back rural voters.

Rural areas won’t even think of coming back until Republicans throw them into another recession when the rural areas still haven’t recovered from the last one...

IDK man. Definitely gone as long as Trump is in office. But I really think the GOP has become too much the party of Trump in the same way the Democrats became the party of Obama, they just have a better geographic spread than Democrats do. So I think once Trump is out of office some of those areas will be more competitive (although tonight makes me less certain that he'll be out of office in 2020).

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Scholten up in IA-4 early vote

MO-5 and MN-1 might flip to R.

What

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Democrats aren't getting anything meaningful done anytime soon until a crash happens.

Do you mean electorally or legislatively? Because legislatively that was a given.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Things will be better for FL with Amendment 4, I have no doubt both Gillum/Nelson would've won if felons could've voted.

What a sad state for Democrats. "If only we get criminals to the polls..."

Dude, you never post on this board. You're showing up just to brag.

Go away. You're pathetic and you have no business here.