Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[NOVA Green]

EV dump from

Dallas County, TX

66-33 BETO

Collins, County, TX

45-53 CRUZ

[NOVA Green]

Since apparently the GOV / Statewide thread on that board is toast....

EV numbers from OH actually look pretty decent for DEMs-GOV looking at the EV numbers by County, looks like a winning Statewide Coalition, based upon traditional OH numbers.

Of course ED Vote might potentially favor PUBS, but still the margins and map look extremely favorable thus far...

[NOVA Green]

EV #s from TX:

Fort Worth County: 49.1% BETO- 50.2% Cruz

Williamson: 51-48 BETO (!!!)

Hays: 57-42 BETO

Bexar County #s: 59-41 BETO

*** Could just be that ED Turnout might be more heavily Working Class Latino, but these numbers are a bit disappointing....

Fort Bend: 55-45 BETO

[NOVA Green]

Man that erosion in the Dallas suburbs is brutal.

Wait to see what comes from the Houston Suburbs (Many of which are located in Harris County)...

Fort Bend County, might be extremely interesting since EV numbers might actually well be more favorable to Upper-Income Voters, rather than the Middle Class parts of the County, so even though the EV swings are lower than in suburban DFW, might actually catch up as controlled % swing once ED votes start coming in from Pearland, etc...

[NOVA Green]

That said, this bodes well for us Knute Buehlerites in Oregon.

Have you been reading any of my updates about Oregon ballots returned by Party?   

REG DEMs +180k > REG PUBs as of 2:31 PM PST #s today with the gap versus RV #s growing by Day....

Maybe, it's just that this Year Republicans all waited to vote until the last minute in Oregon, 15-20% of REG DEMs vote for Knute, and Knute wins 60% of Indies???

Pretty sure you're cracking a joke here...

[NOVA Green]

Damn, Florida is definitely confirmed HP state.

Texas  and the GLORIOUS WEST ( NV, AZ, OR ) may yet deliver us a victory.

Assuming you are talking about a Gubernatorial DEM hold in OR there???

Or are we talking only GOV elections?

Confused....

[NOVA Green]

KS-GOV

DEMs lead 54-39 with estimated 39% IN....

EV map actually looks great for DEMs....

[NOVA Green]

TX- EV DUMP:

Harris County: (57.0-42.0 BETO)

El Paso County: (74-24 BETO)

Nueces County (50-49 BETO)....

I imagine this might be the first election in Modern TX history where OT might be approved for various County Level employees, and perhaps even Mandatory OT involved...

[NOVA Green]

TX-23--- Ortiz-Jones (D) up 800 votes....

SA 'Burbs/ El Paso Co sliver of district or SouthTex

[NOVA Green]

Why is Texas so slow

Raw voter turnout numbers roughly doubled maybe between '14 and '18?

Also, TX is kind of stingy when it comes to funding government services (I say that with a lotta love for Texas where I lived for Four Years, but kept paying insane sales taxes for services that local government couldn't deliver (no state income taxes).

So Yes--- don't expect Texas to county quickly, and even if OT might have approval in a few places, I wouldn't be surprised to see numbers decrease the later it gets in the night, since TO levels likely exceeded budget numbers...

[NOVA Green]

Apparently Kansas is now part of the Democratic freiwal.

The numbers for KS-GOV appear to be the case, based upon current data, and DEM performance, even in some pretty traditionally PUB territory....

[NOVA Green]

SERIOUS QUESTION: Anyone know how many Provisional Ballots are out in Florida?

We know the slimy weasels cheat, and the creation of a perception of Victory, allows DEM ballots to be quietly shoved into the confidential info shredder, is not uncommon, especially in Counties where PUBs control the vast majority of local GVT....

Just sayin'.....

Thought we should be able to look at this more after '00, but at this point, it deserves a much deeper examination before anyone goes onto their "Jump to Conclusion Map" when it comes to final FL-SEN and FL-GOV #s.

[NOVA Green]

Pete Sessions DOWN!!!

[NOVA Green]

Weirdly enough Tester is doing fine right now.

-Popular incumbent

-Montana

We have plenty of DEMs from Rural Parts of our States that represent a winning template in case anyone is interested....

[NOVA Green]

RIP BUEHLER

Called it days ago... you should have been following my updates.   

Actually downstate Oregon numbers don't really look that bad for Buehler IMHO based upon the first dump....

We'll see what happens with DEM and INDIE swings once we get more votes in.... MultoCo and WashCo looking like it will likely provide a decent firewall....

"Too Early to Call"   

[NOVA Green]

I live out west and momentum has certainly stopped when polls started coming out in favor of GOP again

Dude, I live out West too, and quite frankly not a bag where voters didn't drop their ballots off because of election results.... THAT IS SO Early '90s MaN.... JUST SAYIN'

[NOVA Green]

Cruz will win might have been right about the Beto effect. I think Will Hurd just lost.

I was actually just checking out TX-23 numbers, and + 689 R raw margin, starts to get into Provisional Ballots because of voter suppression....

Think I posted a few posts about TX-23, focused mainly on Bexar County precincts.

[NOVA Green]

Yeah, even with my very cursory look at WA-3's numbers, it's going to be a tight race that we won't know the result of for several days.

Yes--- Washington SoS office currently has it at + 13,070 R lead....

Clark County--- (Largest Vote Bank in the CD)

Estimated 30k votes OUT

Currently a 51-49% D Lead.... (These margins will likely increase with later voters).

Not implausible at all to see a 60-40 % D breakdown (+6k D)

Cowlitz County --- 2nd largest by vote share is heavily Ancestral DEM (Longview and Camas) and currently + 3.6k R (55-45 R), and shift workers out there tend to be Younger

Estimated 10k Votes OUT

Not implausible to see a 50-50 split....

Lewis County: =- 3rd largest by Vote share and politically reactionary for over 100 Years where local business leaders murdered Four Labor Activists in cold blood in Centralia, as part of an orchestrated campaign of mob violence, that helped trigger the rise of the "Red Scare" and Palmer Raids of the late 1910s/ early 1920s).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centralia_massacre_(Washington)

Estimated 6.8k votes OUT

Was (68-32 R) in ballots counted to date.... I would expect PUBS to gain numbers out of Lewis County, and even a 55-45 R number still adds +2k R raw votes.

So although it might seem like an early call, reality is that DEMs will likely need to win a HUGE % of outstanding votes from Clark, win 55-45 in outstanding ballots from Cowlitz, *HOPE* the outstanding ballots from Lewis are much less overwhelmingly PUB than the first dump numbers...

Additionally there is a giant wildcard in the WA-SoS has ~30k estimated voters as a placeholder.... we don't *know* the exact number yet---- so yes I think the call was premature, considering the estimated % of votes outstanding vs margins, but obviously the PUBs still have a lead on this race.

[NOVA Green]

Yeah, even with my very cursory look at WA-3's numbers, it's going to be a tight race that we won't know the result of for several days.

Yes--- Washington SoS office currently has it at + 13,070 R lead....

Clark County--- (Largest Vote Bank in the CD)

Estimated 30k votes OUT

Currently a 51-49% D Lead.... (These margins will likely increase with later voters).

Not implausible at all to see a 60-40 % D breakdown (+6k D)

Cowlitz County --- 2nd largest by vote share is heavily Ancestral DEM (Longview and Camas) and currently + 3.6k R (55-45 R), and shift workers out there tend to be Younger

Estimated 10k Votes OUT

Not implausible to see a 50-50 split....

Lewis County: =- 3rd largest by Vote share and politically reactionary for over 100 Years where local business leaders murdered Four Labor Activists in cold blood in Centralia, as part of an orchestrated campaign of mob violence, that helped trigger the rise of the "Red Scare" and Palmer Raids of the late 1910s/ early 1920s).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centralia_massacre_(Washington)

Estimated 6.8k votes OUT

Was (68-32 R) in ballots counted to date.... I would expect PUBS to gain numbers out of Lewis County, and even a 55-45 R number still adds +2k R raw votes.

So although it might seem like an early call, reality is that DEMs will likely need to win a HUGE % of outstanding votes from Clark, win 55-45 in outstanding ballots from Cowlitz, *HOPE* the outstanding ballots from Lewis are much less overwhelmingly PUB than the first dump numbers...

Additionally there is a giant wildcard in the WA-SoS has ~30k estimated voters as a placeholder.... we don't *know* the exact number yet---- so yes I think the call was premature, considering the estimated % of votes outstanding vs margins, but obviously the PUBs still have a lead on this race.

Ironically, NYT just joined CNN in calling this one for Herrera Beutler. I doubt that gets overturned although I am in total agreement that the final result will be quite close, maybe even within 1,000 votes.

Not surprising considering the nature of the district... the closest comparison I might make would be  something more akin to OR CD-04....

Difference being that despite the relatively large % of votes from Clark County, it's actually much swingier and more working-class than Lane, without a relatively larger student population.

Cowlitz County is more like Columbia County OR, but is a significant % of District Vote Share, and is extremely receptive towards Political Candidates that protect American Jobs from the ILWU members in Longview and Pulp Mill workers in Camas, that see how "Free Trade" has benefited our communities, while we see our paper mills shut down, the trees from our forests dumped onto Giant Cargo ships and sent over to Asia, and most recently China, so we "re-import" recycled toilet paper, and sawdust while our Mills are getting shut down destroying small town and rural communities throughout the Pacific Northwest.

The story is not yet over in Communities in the Pacific Northwest, and this is part of the reason why we saw major swings in places where both Democratic and Republican Presidents alike over the past three decades participated in this charade, ever since Bush Sr rammed through MFN with China, Clinton enthusiastically backed much of the same crap NAFTA, Bush Jr was too busy sending our kids to Iraq, destroying the US Economy, then we get Obama who tried to get some decent stuff done but was handcuffed by PUBs after the '10 Elections, and then we get HRC vs DJT?

Minor rant aside, but hell these are the types of conversations that happen in the smoking break areas, and break rooms of relatively smaller and tight-knit communities outside of the "Core" and living reality in the "Periphery"....

In many parts of the US, we see ourselves as essentially Internal Colonies, dominated by the "Core".

This isn't an intellectual debate, so much as it is the perception that many of us have, where it comes to the recognition of where real political power lies, and also the "haves and have nots" in communities that have been suffering for decades, while meanwhile the largest Metro areas of the PacNW whine about their "Great Recession" and the loss of their Housing value, while meanwhile we were fighting to get extension of unemployment benefits, losing our houses, and now that things are rosy and it's "morning in America again".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World-systems_theory

[NOVA Green]

There’s nothing quite like Longview/Kelso in Columbia Co, Oregon, though.

Quoted for Truth...  still it's one of the only bridges over the Columbia River between Portland and Astoria on the Oregon side of the State border....

Columbia and Cowlitz are still in many ways Sister counties in many regards, especially considering the traffic over the bridge during shift changes....

One could make a decent argument regarding the increased % of workers commuting to Suburban PDX and to the Port of Portland from SE Columbia County (Which is where recently we have seen the greatest swings towards the Dems). My Daughter and Son-In-Law now live way out in St. Johns, and to commute into PDX drive through the Dock Districts, Warehouses, and Industrial Zoned areas to make their way from US-20 heading East, in order to hit the Freeways that can route them towards the fringes of I-5.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Johns,_Portland,_Oregon

Columbia County is increasingly becoming a place where Repair and Maintenance (R&M), Facility workers, electricians and trade folks are willing to trade off longer commutes for cheaper Cost of Living (CoL), to be able to afford housing in industries where long hours on the road are billable to the customer as part of a traditional "Port-to-Port"  billing structure for skilled workers in certain industries.

Sure... you are absolutely correct that Columbia County is very different from Cowlitz County, especially when it comes to historical Labor Movement History (Even in recent years)...

https://www.ilwu.org/ilwu-rallies-grain-workers-locked-out-by-mitsui-in-vancouver/

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2014/08/unions-that-used-to-strike/

http://archive.ilwu.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/19680705.pdf

[NOVA Green]

I don't care about Florida at this point. Can someone say something about AZ?

It's ironic how people here talking on and on and on about Florida when there's a race is Arizona that the Democrats are can (and maybe even slightly favored) to win.

Good point....  even in the AZ CD-08 SE it took some time to cast ballots that tended to skew heavily DEM towards the endgame of the vote count...

There was an extremely large thread on this subject barely six months back....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=287204.375

[NOVA Green]

Regarding Arizona, this whole Bucket A vs Bucket B concept is a giant load of bullocks, premised upon traditional midterm turnout elections in '14 and '10 and GE turnout in '12 and '16.

We went through this with the Arizona Special Election in CD-08 just this past April, and what appears to be happening is that traditional voting patterns are shifting dramatically when it comes to EV/ED numbers.

Initially the voter modeling in AZ CD-08 suggested a much higher level of ballots still to be cast, as we assessed numbers coming in post ED...

Now we have a totally different scene in one of the highest Turnout non-PRES election years in US History, this even further confuses the situation...

What this means is that the "Batch A" vs "Batch B" concept, can be safely tossed out the car window and consigned to the dustbin of history when it comes to Arizona voter return and counting practices.

That being said, I'm wishing that I had spent more time looking at the real time results as they came in, like I did in the '18 CD-08 SE, and compare/contrast against historical voting data by precinct... (Maricopa County like most of the Western US is extremely transparent when it comes to counting of the ballots).

Here is a link to the CD-08 SE thread for anyone interested...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=287204.msg6155288#msg6155288

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/MicheleKozal/status/1061439211738464261

Sounds like fake news to me...

[NOVA Green]

Well, I did say some pages back that there were extremely interesting shifts in EV/ED voting habits in AZ...

Back when I was heavily looking at AZ-CD '08 SE, the Arizona Data Guru was predicting total TO raw vote numbers based upon historical data for Midterm elections....

He estimated that there were many more ballots outstanding than there actually were, but what we started to observe was that at least in this election, voters were tending to vote much more heavily early via mail, than had ever been the case for AZ CD-08.

Now, we can't say that AZ CD-08 in a House SE is necessarily representative of a trend within Maricopa County writ large, when it comes to EV vs ED and when ballots are cast, and whom is favored etc, but it's pretty damn clear that the whole "Bucket A & B & Pink Conventional Wisdom (CW) from political pundits and objective observers is really looking like a giant load of bullocks....

It will be extremely interesting to examine Maricopa election results in much more extensive detail once we get a final precinct count....

Unfortunately, I only saved a few thus far from the Nov '18 GE, and hopefully some of the rest of y'all have been downloading the various daily updates, since I don't believe we will otherwise be able to look at the daily updates to examine this more fully without these datasets....

I have at least the daily updates from AZ CD-08 staged on one of my hard-drives, so would be interesting to test this further....

[NOVA Green]

Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party.

Me and my wife were just watching a snipped of her victory speech and as my wife observed the GREEN outfit was likely not accidental, especially in a State where there are a huge number of Swing / Republican Leaning Indies, that are socially Liberal, not to mention a more Left-Leaning DEM base, that she will continue to represent Socially Liberal and Progressive Anti-Militarist policies, while simultaneously pursuing progressive economic policies, while still maintaining an Independent Arizona perspective and not follow the Party Leaders on all issues....

This is a big deal in Arizona, and the 'Pubs deliberately screwed over Higher Income Voters in DEM states, and then were banking their Tax cuts for the Higher Income Voters elsewhere was going to "seal the deal in 2018"....

House Results obviously indicate this created massive issues for the 'Pubs in places like Cali, etc....

In theory, this should have actually helped PUB SEN candidates in AZ and NV this year.... didn't happen....

Interesting thing about the Green Parties in Europe is that although they aren't huge fans of taxation as a means of funding Social Programs, they believe in increased Government Regulation and controls over business, as well as means to control to "race to the bottom" that Capitalist Economics has been enforcing throughout Western Democracies since the '70s....