Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[RI]

Pinellas's site is pretty great for seeing turnout by party live:

Mail vote: R +3,503 (1.5% margin)
Early vote: D +5,325 (9.7%)
Election Day so far: R +4,985 (8.5%)

Overall: R +3,163 (0.9%)

The final raw margin in 2016 was about R +10,000 between all three types.

[RI]

NYTimes now considers their individual state result pages an "article" and put up a paywall. The f**k.

Yeah, they did the same with their poll result pages. It sucks.

[RI]

Election Day vote so far:

Brevard: 48.2 R - 29.0 D
Duval: 45.4 R - 37.3 D
Pasco: 47.8 R - 28.5 D
Pinellas: 41.8 R - 33.5 D

Pinellas is the only county I could find past data for. In 2016, the final ED distribution was 38.9 R - 32.6 D. If the Dems do better after work hours, the R share might be pretty similar to 2016, while the D share will likely be somewhat higher than 2016 (unless the surge comes from D-voting Indies, in which case we might see close to the same shares as 2016).

Pinellas ED vote is currently at 40% of 2016's ED vote.

[RI]

This spreadsheet is tracking FL better than I can: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13UdXilkzGqvvdKBN9Vwe8er64JeycQbLxKGxFy9lTlE/htmlview?sle=true#gid=10992779

Rs are currently running ahead of 2016 in R and swing counties, Ds in most (but not all) D counties.

[RI]

Good news for the Dems in FL is that Panhandle turnout is quite low so far, especially in the most hurricane-damaged counties.

[RI]

A cool tracker of turnout in Philadelphia by ward: https://jtannen.github.io/election_tracker.html

Based on self-reporting though, so perhaps take it with a grain of salt.

[RI]

An analysis of Cuyahoga County precinct-level turnout data so far:

Trump-majority precincts:
45.3% total turnout
21.2% ED turnout
24.1% Absentee turnout

Clinton-majority precincts:
33.2% total turnout
17.4% ED turnout
15.9% Absentee turnout

White Clinton-majority precincts:
38.5% total turnout
20.1% ED turnout
18.4% Absentee turnout

Majority-black precincts:
28.2% total turnout
14.7% ED turnout
13.5% Absentee turnout

>30% Hispanic precincts:
15.0% total turnout
9.3% ED turnout
5.8% Absentee turnout

Clinton-swing precincts:
43.3% total turnout
21.8% ED turnout
21.6% Absentee turnout

Trump-swing precincts:
31.6% total turnout
16.3% ED turnout
15.4% Absentee turnout

White Trump-swing precincts:
35.9% total turnout
18.3% ED turnout
17.7% Absentee turnout

So the highest turnout is in Trump-voting but Clinton-swinging white suburban precincts, unsurprisingly. Black and Hispanic precincts are showing comparatively low turnout. White-working class areas will likely be more represented in the ED vote than in the absentee, whereas the high turnout suburban area appear to be relatively more concentrated in absentee voting.

[RI]

Another way of looking at the Cuyahoga numbers:

Majority-white precincts: 56.5% of 2016 total turnout
Majority-black precincts: 46.2% of 2016 total turnout
>30% Hispanic precincts: 34.0% of 2016 total turnout

Clinton-majority precincts: 50.9% of 2016 total turnout
-----White Clinton-majority precincts: 55.7%
Trump-majority precincts: 59.3% of 2016 total turnout

Clinton-swinging precincts: 59.4% of 2016 total turnout
Trump-swinging precincts: 49.1% of 2016 total turnout
------White Trump-swinging precincts: 52.5%

So yes, minority turnout is relatively low, and yes, anti-Trump suburbanites are energized.

[RI]

Old people in FL are turning out like mad: 72% of 2016 ED votes cast in Sumter County, 69% in Collier---two highest in FL.

[RI]

Also I'd like to see a comparison to 2014 before I would say that black or Latino turnout is bad.

In the TargetSmart early vote data, the African American vote share is slightly down from 2014. Hispanic vote share is very slightly up.

In most other states early vote, there is a bigger increase in African American/Hispanic early vote turnout. Of course, early vote is not election day... and yes, a precinct level comparison to 2014/2016 would be nice. But not really confidence inspiring as compared to other states.

Cordray could still win on the basis of winning independents though, I just don't think it is at all a gimme, and of the big Gov races it is probably the #1 that I am most worried about at the moment.

Hispanic precincts had the biggest drop-off between 2016 and 2018 in my analysis of Clark County, NV early/mail voting.

[RI]

Hispanic precincts had the biggest drop-off between 2016 and 2018 in my analysis of Clark County, NV early/mail voting.

But Hispanics have the biggest % increase in the TargetSmart data. That compares to 2014. So really it probably depends on if you compare to 2014 or 2016. Hispanic turnout may look good in comparison to 2014, perhaps a bit less good (or bad) in comparison to 2016.

TargetSmart's data says that the Hispanic share of the electorate has increased since 2014, which is not surprising as the Hispanic share of the population overall has increased since 2014. What I'm saying is that relative to 2016, there has been a larger drop-off in turnout in Hispanic precincts than white precincts (at least in Clark and Cuyahoga). Both are possible if there are more total Hispanics, but the rate at which any individual Hispanic turns out to vote is down.

[RI]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696

Comparing to 2010 seems like an odd decision.

[RI]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1059891876046749696

Comparing to 2010 seems like an odd decision.

Last competitive midterm in Ohio?

I get that, but A LOT has changed in 8 years.

[RI]

There are positive signs for both Dems and GOP so far. A total blowout looks quite unlikely. Other than that it's too early to say much.

[RI]

Bredesen needs crossover support. Turnout may help, but it won't be what wins it for him.

[RI]

Joe Biden DOMINATING in the Dem primary

[RI]

I never find early exit polls particularly illuminating, personally. For example, more than a quarter of those who said we were on the "wrong track" in 2016 voted for Clinton any way. You can't infer a whole lot just from the raw response. If we had the same breakdown this time, the GOP would win 53% of the vote.

[RI]

If I'm Rick Scott, I'm feeling pretty okay with turnout so far. Not confident, but definitely okay. The GOP base is doing what it needs to do.

[RI]

Fox News voter analysis data:

65-34 on economy
51% want to repeal Obamacare
46% support the wall
66% think political correctness has gone too far

[RI]

The exit polls, like the regular polls, seem as if they're drawing from two different populations. I'm very curious to see how this resolves itself.

[RI]

Fox also has 47% saying "Trump is a strong leader"

[RI]

Fox also has 47% saying "Trump is a strong leader"

Stop.

I'm watching Fox. Fox have not shown many numbers. Stop making sh**t up.

I don't make things up. It's on their chryon...

[RI]

CNN exit poll:

48% say Trump's immigration policies are too tough
48% say not tough enough or about right

[RI]

First KY-06 votes have Barr up 58-40

[RI]

First KY-06 votes have Barr up 58-40

Are you on the state website?

CNN