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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  MI: Mitchell: Stabenow +3
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Author Topic: MI: Mitchell: Stabenow +3  (Read 756 times)
reagente
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« on: November 06, 2018, 02:28:02 am »

Debbie Stabenow (D) - 49%
John James (R) - 46%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Mitchell_Poll_Press_Release_11_5_18_A.pdf
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2018, 02:34:22 am »

Debbie Stabenow (D) - 49%
John James (R) - 46%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Mitchell_Poll_Press_Release_11_5_18_A.pdf

This is something. At this point, bar some massive polling error, I'm pretty well convinced that James will keep his loss to a single-digit margin today.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2018, 03:38:26 am »

So, based on what I'm seeing, this poll was 1) automated 2) conducted over a single day and 3) only reached landlines.  I don't think throwing this poll into the garbage does it justice.  Something more drastic is necessary.
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SN2903
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2018, 08:05:07 am »

Debbie Stabenow (D) - 49%
John James (R) - 46%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Mitchell_Poll_Press_Release_11_5_18_A.pdf

This is something. At this point, bar some massive polling error, I'm pretty well convinced that James will keep his loss to a single-digit margin today.
James is going to win. That is 2 polls now within the MOE. She lost all the momentum.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2018, 08:08:43 am »

You want to know why this pollster has a D- rating on 538? Because they just unskewed their own poll from over the weekend:

Quote
“This morning as I examined more closely the crosstabs of a survey we conducted and released
Sunday night, I was struck by a number of anomalies. First, after seeing most polls with about a
+ 2% Democratic sample (2% more people saying they were Democrats as opposed to
Republicans), Sunday night the sample came out at +6.5% Democrat. Second, the
male/female split was 46.5%-53.5%, normally it should be about 48% male – 52% female.
Third, the area breaks clearly were showing different percentages for the candidates than we’ve
seen all year. And finally, the question regarding who respondents voted for in 2016 has shown
parity between those who said they voted for Trump and those who voted for Clinton. Last night
it was +6.5% Clinton,” Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications said.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2018, 08:12:27 am »

Debbie Stabenow (D) - 49%
John James (R) - 46%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Mitchell_Poll_Press_Release_11_5_18_A.pdf

This is something. At this point, bar some massive polling error, I'm pretty well convinced that James will keep his loss to a single-digit margin today.
James is going to win. That is 2 polls now within the MOE. She lost all the momentum.

Someone's in for a rough night...
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SN2903
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2018, 08:57:33 am »

Debbie Stabenow (D) - 49%
John James (R) - 46%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Mitchell_Poll_Press_Release_11_5_18_A.pdf

This is something. At this point, bar some massive polling error, I'm pretty well convinced that James will keep his loss to a single-digit margin today.
James is going to win. That is 2 polls now within the MOE. She lost all the momentum.

Someone's in for a rough night...
Democrats are in for a long night. They got overconfident and since Kavanaugh they haven't been doing that well.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2018, 09:53:37 am »

I think SN2903 is actually John James.
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2018, 10:16:06 am »

Michigan would've gone to the Republicans if Clinton won in 2016.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2018, 10:50:17 am »

Debbie Stabenow (D) - 49%
John James (R) - 46%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Mitchell_Poll_Press_Release_11_5_18_A.pdf

This is something. At this point, bar some massive polling error, I'm pretty well convinced that James will keep his loss to a single-digit margin today.
James is going to win. That is 2 polls now within the MOE. She lost all the momentum.

You seem supremely confident. I would advise you against that, since 2018 is not 2016.
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