Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 05, 2019, 12:16:33 pm
News: 2020 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Describe a Democrat-2014/Republican-2018 voter
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Describe a Democrat-2014/Republican-2018 voter  (Read 2085 times)
darklordoftech
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,581
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 06, 2018, 03:54:58 pm »

Can you?
Logged
Atlas Force
mlee117379
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 800
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2018, 04:08:57 pm »

Someone who lives in rural Minnesota?
Logged
Intell
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,829
Nepal


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -1.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2018, 05:40:57 am »

Plenty of WWC voters.
Logged
Ohioguy29
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 536


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 07, 2018, 05:01:06 pm »

Someone who was a straight ticket Democratic voter until 2016 who likes Trump's positions on immigration and trade.
Logged
GP270watch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,974


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2018, 09:10:00 pm »

White guy who thinks the country is going away from his values culturally.
Logged
pops
katman46
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 746


Political Matrix
E: 4.52, S: -6.26

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2018, 11:54:06 pm »

Many people in rural New York, Michigan, and Minnesota.
Logged
Snipee356
Full Member
***
Posts: 204
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 10, 2018, 06:08:53 am »

People in NE-2 and Gwen Graham's district. And Susan Collins Dems.
Logged
Flyersfan232
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2019, 09:49:33 am »

People in NE-2 and Gwen Graham's district. And Susan Collins Dems.
susan collins dems?
Logged
Flyersfan232
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2019, 09:51:49 am »

A blue dog (the jim webb type and perhaps even jim webb himself)) who voted for trump because they agree more with his policy then hillarys and didnt like any of the third parties and walk away from the democrats as they went more  to the left.
Logged
The3rdParty
Full Member
***
Posts: 122
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.67, S: -4.25

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: January 08, 2019, 10:58:01 am »

MN-1, MN-7 and MN-8 voters
Logged
Does the title even matter?
tara gilesbie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,844
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: January 08, 2019, 05:35:56 pm »

Very likely an Obama/Trump voter.
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,197
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: January 08, 2019, 05:49:06 pm »

Racist Hicks

Kansas, Pennsylvania, Georgia, etc...
Logged
Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ
lfromnj
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,171


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: January 08, 2019, 06:09:10 pm »

Ill be funny

A #neoliberal Asford Bacon voter who didnt like Terry but likes Bacon and thinks Eastman was way too liberal(Mostly because the DCCC didnt spend enough on messaging her)
Logged
Medal506
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,084
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: January 25, 2019, 08:26:38 pm »

Someone who woke up to the disaster of the democratic party in the years 2015 - 2018
Logged
AtorBoltox
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,895
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: January 25, 2019, 08:52:19 pm »

An idiot
Logged
Wazza
Wazza1901
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,516
Australia


Political Matrix
E: 2.19, S: 1.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: January 28, 2019, 09:11:11 am »

A WWC midwesterner swayed by Trumps protectionist and immigration policies along with his populist rhetoric and who now votes downballot R because "A vote for [Republican Senator/Governor/Rep] is a vote for Trump".
Logged
coolface1572
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 350
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2019, 04:24:04 pm »

Depends on if it is at the federal or state level.

At the federal level, one rather historical location is Elliot county KY. It voted for the dem candidate every election from 1872-2012, with Obama winning by less than 3 percent before giving 70% to trump. It also backed the dem in every congress, senate and governor election since the 1960s. In 2014 they voted for Kenneth Stepp over incumbent republican Hal Rogers. In 2018, they went for Hal Rogers. These voters were of course historically moderate democrats who loved trump's populist appeal.

Another notable example could be a democrat from Michigan who supported Gary Peters for the US senate in 2014 won by 13% but who then supported John James, who lost by just 6%.

And finally, someone from New Jersey who found Bob Menendez too corrupt to reelect.

The state level is another story.
Here the most likely case was an open governor's election where a voter supported a dem over a republican who narrowly won. They then thought the incumbent republican was doing a good job and thus supported him in 2018. This for sure happened in Vermont, Massachusetts and Maryland.

In Florida, Desantis flipped two Crist counties. These voters were probably willing to vote for a republican turned democrat with Charlie Crist but found Andrew Gillum to progressive.

Also could someone explain how Monroe county Ohio went from Ed Fitgerald to Mike Dewine?

The other county I can't at all understand is Jefferson county Kansas, which supported Paul Davis over Sam Brownback but went back to the GOP with Kris Kobach. If they hated the Brownback so much, why would they support Brownback X10?
Logged
Calthrina950
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,130
United States


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2019, 11:36:51 pm »

Depends on if it is at the federal or state level.

At the federal level, one rather historical location is Elliot county KY. It voted for the dem candidate every election from 1872-2012, with Obama winning by less than 3 percent before giving 70% to trump. It also backed the dem in every congress, senate and governor election since the 1960s. In 2014 they voted for Kenneth Stepp over incumbent republican Hal Rogers. In 2018, they went for Hal Rogers. These voters were of course historically moderate democrats who loved trump's populist appeal.

Another notable example could be a democrat from Michigan who supported Gary Peters for the US senate in 2014 won by 13% but who then supported John James, who lost by just 6%.

And finally, someone from New Jersey who found Bob Menendez too corrupt to reelect.

The state level is another story.
Here the most likely case was an open governor's election where a voter supported a dem over a republican who narrowly won. They then thought the incumbent republican was doing a good job and thus supported him in 2018. This for sure happened in Vermont, Massachusetts and Maryland.

In Florida, Desantis flipped two Crist counties. These voters were probably willing to vote for a republican turned democrat with Charlie Crist but found Andrew Gillum to progressive.

Also could someone explain how Monroe county Ohio went from Ed Fitgerald to Mike Dewine?

The other county I can't at all understand is Jefferson county Kansas, which supported Paul Davis over Sam Brownback but went back to the GOP with Kris Kobach. If they hated the Brownback so much, why would they support Brownback X10?

I'll give an answer to each of these in turn:

1) I'm not sure if we could describe Elliott County Democrats as "moderate". They are staunch social conservatives, the same as their fellow ancestral Republican and (formerly) ancestral Democratic neighbors in SE Kentucky.

2) Monroe County's shift can be explained by the Democratic collapse in rural and white-working class, blue collar areas. DeWine did much better than Kasich in the traditionally Democratic regions of Southern and Eastern Ohio, while underperforming him in the major metropolitan counties and suburbs. Monroe County flipped at the federal level in 2012 to Mitt Romney, after having gone Democratic in every election from 1976-2008. And in 2016, Trump got more than 70% of the vote there (just like in Elliott). Monroe County is gone for the Democrats, and is now Safe Republican.

3) Again, same reason as #2. Kansas's rural areas were very Republican in 2016, with Trump breaking 70% or 80% in many counties (and even 90% in Wallace County). The same rural-suburban trends taking place elsewhere hit Kansas as well, as one can see by Kelly significantly outperforming Davis in Johnson, Shawnee, and Sedgwick Counties.
Logged
Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ
lfromnj
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,171


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2019, 01:00:30 am »
« Edited: October 31, 2019, 06:47:55 pm by Lfromnj »

Btw does anyone have the swing map for 2014 wv03 to 2018 wv03. It only swung 3 points right but Huntington probably zoomed left while the coal counties went right.
Logged
538Electoral
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,501


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2019, 11:45:19 pm »

A former Democrat that has since grown to hate the party for any number of reasons.
Logged
Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ
lfromnj
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,171


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2019, 06:49:02 pm »

Depends on if it is at the federal or state level.

At the federal level, one rather historical location is Elliot county KY. It voted for the dem candidate every election from 1872-2012, with Obama winning by less than 3 percent before giving 70% to trump. It also backed the dem in every congress, senate and governor election since the 1960s. In 2014 they voted for Kenneth Stepp over incumbent republican Hal Rogers. In 2018, they went for Hal Rogers. These voters were of course historically moderate democrats who loved trump's populist appeal.

Another notable example could be a democrat from Michigan who supported Gary Peters for the US senate in 2014 won by 13% but who then supported John James, who lost by just 6%.

And finally, someone from New Jersey who found Bob Menendez too corrupt to reelect.

The state level is another story.
Here the most likely case was an open governor's election where a voter supported a dem over a republican who narrowly won. They then thought the incumbent republican was doing a good job and thus supported him in 2018. This for sure happened in Vermont, Massachusetts and Maryland.

In Florida, Desantis flipped two Crist counties. These voters were probably willing to vote for a republican turned democrat with Charlie Crist but found Andrew Gillum to progressive.

Also could someone explain how Monroe county Ohio went from Ed Fitgerald to Mike Dewine?

The other county I can't at all understand is Jefferson county Kansas, which supported Paul Davis over Sam Brownback but went back to the GOP with Kris Kobach. If they hated the Brownback so much, why would they support Brownback X10?
Monroe county ohio also has a plant close down and like 25% unemployment so they went with the #populist route Purple heart
Logged
coolface1572
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 350
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2019, 10:25:30 pm »

Depends on if it is at the federal or state level.

At the federal level, one rather historical location is Elliot county KY. It voted for the dem candidate every election from 1872-2012, with Obama winning by less than 3 percent before giving 70% to trump. It also backed the dem in every congress, senate and governor election since the 1960s. In 2014 they voted for Kenneth Stepp over incumbent republican Hal Rogers. In 2018, they went for Hal Rogers. These voters were of course historically moderate democrats who loved trump's populist appeal.

Another notable example could be a democrat from Michigan who supported Gary Peters for the US senate in 2014 won by 13% but who then supported John James, who lost by just 6%.

And finally, someone from New Jersey who found Bob Menendez too corrupt to reelect.

The state level is another story.
Here the most likely case was an open governor's election where a voter supported a dem over a republican who narrowly won. They then thought the incumbent republican was doing a good job and thus supported him in 2018. This for sure happened in Vermont, Massachusetts and Maryland.

In Florida, Desantis flipped two Crist counties. These voters were probably willing to vote for a republican turned democrat with Charlie Crist but found Andrew Gillum to progressive.

Also could someone explain how Monroe county Ohio went from Ed Fitgerald to Mike Dewine?

The other county I can't at all understand is Jefferson county Kansas, which supported Paul Davis over Sam Brownback but went back to the GOP with Kris Kobach. If they hated the Brownback so much, why would they support Brownback X10?
Monroe county ohio also has a plant close down and like 25% unemployment so they went with the #populist route Purple heart

Only problem with that argument is that Mike Dewine is one of the least populist politicians ever.
Logged
President Griffin
Adam Griffin
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,624
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: November 07, 2019, 10:20:04 am »

Weirdo climate-contrarians who simultaneously have an odd authoritarian fetish for whomever's in the Oval Office
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC