Is Wisconsin still trending Republican?

[Scottholes 2.0]

- Dane County continues to grow and get more Democratic every election cycle.
- The WOW counties seem to be trending Democratic, except for Washington County (Vukmir got less than 60 percent in Ozaukee!)
- The GOP-leaning rural areas are shrinking
- Milwaukee County delivered higher than average margins for Democratis in a midterm.

This may only be one election, but if Dane countues to grow and deliver increasingly high Democratic margins, WI will probably always be a purple state. I can't say WI is trending Democratic when the rural in Western WI are still swingy.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

Short answer: no.

Long answer: not yet.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The Dem backsliding in Duffy's district will be one to watch. 

[Xing]

I think it's staying put right where it is as a swing state. Walker losing in a year that was good but not great for Democrats definitely does not suggest that it's becoming a red state, but his margin of defeat suggests that it's pretty purple. It'll definitely be one of the most hotly contested states in 2020.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think it's staying put right where it is as a swing state. Walker losing in a year that was good but not great for Democrats definitely does not suggest that it's becoming a red state, but his margin of defeat suggests that it's pretty purple. It'll definitely be one of the most hotly contested states in 2020.

[muon2]

One factor to watch is how well Walker's build up of local Pub organizations fpr the last 8 years survives his departure as Gov. It's that ground-game organization that will tip the scales in a purple state like WI (cf OH).

[Gass3268]

No, what's happening in Wisconsin is similar to what's happening in Minnesota and Michigan. Democrats are losing ground in many of their traditional areas, but are almost simultaneously replacing those voters with voters in traditional Republican areas.

Where this hurts Democrats is in the state legislature. Even with the Democratic ticket sweeping statewide, they lost a seat in the State Senate and made zero gains in the State Assembly. The state party is really gonna have to starting making a local push in the WOW counties and urban areas in the Fox Cities/Valley in order to start making a dent in those Republican margins.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

No, what's happening in Wisconsin is similar to what's happening in Minnesota and Michigan. Democrats are losing ground in many of their traditional areas, but are almost simultaneously replacing those voters with voters in traditional Republican areas.

Where this hurts Democrats is in the state legislature. Even with the Democratic ticket sweeping statewide, they lost a seat in the State Senate and made zero gains in the State Assembly. The state party is really gonna have to starting making a local push in the WOW counties and urban areas in the Fox Cities/Valley in order to start making a dent in those Republican margins.

My hope is that redistricting will be kinder to Dems this round, which will mean better shots at the legislature.

[MasterJedi]

I'd look at Baldwin more than Walker. Walker is kind of a special snowflake where he has always seemed to have more support, especially in rural areas than other Republicans. Trump is also still toxic in the suburbs and will depress the vote there where they LOVE Walker. Also, Washington is super rural county overall, I doubt that changes much.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Would you guys say that WI is turning red faster than it is blue, then, even with the growth of Dane and GOP collaspe in WOW?

[DC Al Fine]

You do know Wisconsin was one of the better GOP trends in 2016 right?

[lfromnj]

According to Atlas every state is trending democrat and soon it will be a 538-0 sweep.

[ON Progressive]

I wouldn't say so. It's just staying purple.

[ElectionsGuy]

According to Atlas every state is trending democrat and soon it will be a 538-0 sweep.

[TDAS04]

I wouldn't say so. It's just staying purple.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

According to Atlas every state is trending democrat and soon it will be a 538-0 sweep.

[ltomlinson31]

According to Atlas every state is trending democrat and soon it will be a 538-0 sweep.

[Technocracy Timmy]

According to Atlas every state is trending democrat and soon it will be a 538-0 sweep.

[IceSpear]

According to Atlas every state is trending democrat and soon it will be a 538-0 sweep.

[Tartarus Sauce]

No, Dane would need to grow much faster, Democrats would need to make significant inroads into WOW, and they would also need to make much more serious forays into the northeast industrial cities before Wisconsin could be considered a true long-term D trend.  

[pops]

Let's look at it in series of 5 Presidential elections, starting in 1860.

1860-1876: 5 Republican Wins
1880-1896: 4 Republican Wins, 1 Democrat Win
1900-1916: 4 Republican Wins, 1 Democrat Win
1920-1936: 2 Republican Wins, 2 Democrat Wins, 1 Third Party Win
1940-1956: 3 Republican Wins, 2 Democrat Wins
1960-1976: 3 Republican Wins, 2 Democrat Wins
1980-1996: 3 Democrat Wins, 2 Republican Wins
2000-2016: 4 Democrat Wins, 1 Republican Win

From this standpoint, yes, very much so. From a short-term standpoint, it is trending Republican. It could go either way in the future and I think we would be foolish to claim with any certainty to know what direction the state is going to go towards.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

- Dane County continues to grow and get more Democratic every election cycle.
- The WOW counties seem to be trending Democratic, except for Washington County (Vukmir got less than 60 percent in Ozaukee!)
- The GOP-leaning rural areas are shrinking
- Milwaukee County delivered higher than average margins for Democratis in a midterm.

This may only be one election, but if Dane countues to grow and deliver increasingly high Democratic margins, WI will probably always be a purple state. I can't say WI is trending Democratic when the rural in Western WI are still swingy.

Some thoughts:
- As Dane County grows and moves left, the Driftless Region moves right.
- Everyone needs to plz stahp with the WOW Counties like they are a monolithic region. The Rural Catholic Bible Belt (Washington into Dodge County) is trending GOP, while the wealthy exurbs are trending Dem.
- Wisconsin is all over the map when it comes to the Senate (it is the state of Feingold, Kohl, and Baldwin, as well as Ron Johnson).
- Anecdotally (please correct me if I'm wrong), GOP candidates were more willing to distance themselves from Trump once they won the nomination than they were in, say, Indiana. Trump is a net liability in the Badger State.

My take: Wisconsin is Wisconsin. It's full of independent voters who tend to like to put Republicans in state government, but flexible when it comes to Presidential or Senatorial elections. It is, in my view, a state full of reluctant - and now remorseful - Trump voters who were mainly voting against Hillary. Trying to find a trend here is futile exercise.

I would be extremely surprised if Trump won the state again, but every single election is a new story.

[Scottholes 2.0]

No, what's happening in Wisconsin is similar to what's happening in Minnesota and Michigan. Democrats are losing ground in many of their traditional areas, but are almost simultaneously replacing those voters with voters in traditional Republican areas.

Where this hurts Democrats is in the state legislature. Even with the Democratic ticket sweeping statewide, they lost a seat in the State Senate and made zero gains in the State Assembly. The state party is really gonna have to starting making a local push in the WOW counties and urban areas in the Fox Cities/Valley in order to start making a dent in those Republican margins.

This makes a lot of sense. Thanks!

[Flyersfan232]

The Dem backsliding in Duffy's district will be one to watch. 

honsently surprise the gop havent try to targeted this year.

[ElectionsGuy]

The Dem backsliding in Duffy's district will be one to watch. 

honsently surprise the gop havent try to targeted this year.

I'm assuming he means Kind's district? Because Duffy's is already gone for Democrats.