What was your most shocking Senate Result and What's the possible reasons?

[ericpolitico]

Mine are
1. Donnelly was crushed badly in the Senate (polls were wrong)
Indiana is totally unreachable for Dems anymore, Donnelly was basically another Bayh
2. Nelson's lost ( polls were also wrong)
Florida was hard to poll and massive conservative rural turnout
3. Stabenow won only by 6 points in Michigan!
I am still confused why for this one

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Mine is
1. Donnelly was crushed badly in the Senate (polls are wrong)
Indiana was totally unreachable for Dems anymore, Donnelly was basically another Bayh
2. Nelson lost ( polls are also wrong)
Florida is hard to poll, massive conservative turnout
3. Stabenow won only by 6 point!
I am still confused why

To Michigan (and I'm sure SN2903 can weigh in better than I can): James is black, young, and pretty charismatic.  To me, he was something like a Beto-of-the-right.

[Politician]

Ted Cruz only won by 2 at the same time Donnelly was crushed.

[Skye]

Ted Cruz only won by 2 at the same time Donnelly was crushed.

This. Also, MO wasn't close either.

I'm not really surprised by Stabenow's performance. The trend was clear, James gained a ton of ground during the final stretch.

[😥]

1. Bill Nelson loses
2. Joe Donnelly loses
3. Phil Bredesen loses by ~11%
4. McCaskill loses
5. Beto made good

[President Johnson]

Mine are
1. Donnelly was crushed badly in the Senate (polls were wrong)
Indiana is totally unreachable for Dems anymore, Donnelly was basically another Bayh
2. Nelson's lost ( polls were also wrong)
Florida was hard to poll and massive conservative rural turnout
3. Stabenow won only by 6 points in Michigan!
I am still confused why for this one

Exactly this. I remember the Republican poll in Indiana showing Donnelly up twelve points. I also didn't expect Nelson to be this weak. And yeah, Gretchen Whitmer outperformed Stabbenow, this is interesting.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Florida, Democrats have been known to sit out of races if it looks like they were going to win just look
 at how OH and WV ended.

[Badger]

In lieu of choosing a single race, I will simply say I am most surprised by the fact that Democratic senatorial candidates, other than b e to, underperformed across-the-board.

[sg0508]

It's not that surprising that Democrats apparently blew another one in FL.  The statewide party is AWFUL and has been bad for years. 

The fact that IN was essentially not competitive, as well as TN surprised me.

[Young Conservative]

1. Rick Scott
2. Sherrod Brown's underperformance
3. Braun domination
4. Heller loss as other senate races swung GOP
5. Tight Cruz race

[Storebought]

Florida, Democrats have been known to sit out of races if it looks like they were going to win just look
 at how OH and WV ended.

Why are Democratic voters so idiotic? Won't vote in the rain -- won't vote if it looks like their guy will win -- won't vote if it looks like their guy won't win -- telling pollsters saying how "enthusiastic!" they are and then promptly staying home. I don't think this flaw is one that is correctable with more voter outreach.

[The Vorlon]

In approximate order of surprise magnitude...

1)     GOP Holding/winning both Governor & Senate in Florida
2)     Loony tunes Socialist coming within 2.6% in Texas (Cruz being "Satan in the flesh" certainly is
            part of this)
3)     Montana
4)     James within 5.4% in Michigan
5)     Manchin by only 3.2% (SCOTUS vote saved his ass)
6)     Indiana & North Dakota by double digits
7)     How totally clusterf&%k disorganized Azizona is.

[MycroftCZ]

Florida Senate is pretty shocking, considering polling had shown Nelson pulling ahead. Indiana and Missouri are also surprising. Bad night for polling.

[Mr. Smith]

By endgame, probably Tester or if the final count works out well, Sinema.

By where things are going, California. The rural areas, especially the Trump ones are going for De Leon hard and he's in single digits. This was supposed to be a 54-58 county shutout with the possibilities of Imperial, Mendocino, and Humboldt tops...maybe a token protest from Modoc/Lassen.

But nope, Clinton country is literally voting to the right of Trumpland...it's practically the late 19th/early 20th century.

[Orser67]

The only shocking Senate race imo was Donnelly getting blown out. The final RCP average was Donnelly + 1.3, and 538 gave him a 70% chance of winning, so for him to lose by ~10 points is pretty surprising. I think this election made it clear that Senate Democrats are going to have a hard time winning red states post-2012.

The overall outcome in FL is extremely disappointing, but I don't think that Scott winning by less than 1% of the vote qualifies as "shocking." Same with AZ if Republicans win there.

[Tender Branson]

TN, IN and MI/MT.

TN is an absurd state.

[ElectionsGuy]

Scott, for sure. I can't believe Indiana and Texas (the margins) either. Cruz got the run of his life. The Beto %'s in metropolitan Texas should scare Republicans sh**tless. Because that's the future of Texas.

I always had this gut feeling that Indiana and Missouri were going to break Republican, but didn't expect it by that much. Safe to say that those states are gone for Democrats. Democrats underperformed expectations everywhere except Texas and Nevada for the Senate races.

I'm not shocked by Tennessee, I always thought that's how it was going to go no matter what. I'm kinda surprised that on a night Republicans did so well in the Senate that Cramer didn't win by more.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

TX. Although it was partly expected that it would be closer than usual, just how close it was and the magnitude of Beto's gains are a remarkable achievement.

Beto delivered.

Beto got more raw votes than Hillary Clinton - in a midterm!!!

Focusing on the fact that Cruz narrowly won is short-sighted. The real story here is the trend, and the trend is an earthquake.

TX and its 38 electoral votes (soon to be 40 or 41) is now on the Presidential map.

[Yank2133]

TX. Although it was partly expected that it would be closer than usual, just how close it was and the magnitude of Beto's gains are a remarkable achievement.

Beto delivered.

Beto got more raw votes than Hillary Clinton - in a midterm!!!

Focusing on the fact that Cruz narrowly won is short-sighted. The real story here is the trend, and the trend is an earthquake.

TX and its 38 electoral votes (soon to be 40 or 41) is now on the Presidential map.

What do you think Democrats should do next? Making Texas competitive in 2020 is a game-changer.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

What do you think Democrats should do next? Making Texas competitive in 2020 is a game-changer.

1) Draft Beto to either enter the Presidential primary or else to announce his 2020 Senate campaign.

2) Cash infusion for the DNC/Texas Democratic party/Battleground TX to immediately hire Beto's entire staff of field organizers to spend the next two years registering more voters and continuing to organize TX. Maintain the field/GOTV infrastructure that Beto built up in his campaign and build up a Dem machine all across the TX Megacities. Organization can turn TX into Nevada over the next decade or two.

[Storr]

What do you think Democrats should do next? Making Texas competitive in 2020 is a game-changer.

1) Draft Beto to either enter the Presidential primary or else to announce his 2020 Senate campaign.

2) Cash infusion for the DNC/Texas Democratic party/Battleground TX to immediately hire Beto's entire staff of field organizers to spend the next two years registering more voters and continuing to organize TX. Maintain the field/GOTV infrastructure that Beto built up in his campaign and build up a Dem machine all across the TX Megacities. Organization can turn TX into Nevada over the next decade or two.

Beto should definitely run for Senate. The extra Presidential year turnout might push him over the hump.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

What do you think Democrats should do next? Making Texas competitive in 2020 is a game-changer.

1) Draft Beto to either enter the Presidential primary or else to announce his 2020 Senate campaign.

2) Cash infusion for the DNC/Texas Democratic party/Battleground TX to immediately hire Beto's entire staff of field organizers to spend the next two years registering more voters and continuing to organize TX. Maintain the field/GOTV infrastructure that Beto built up in his campaign and build up a Dem machine all across the TX Megacities. Organization can turn TX into Nevada over the next decade or two.

Beto should definitely run for Senate. The extra Presidential year turnout might push him over the hump.

Yeah, exactly. Midterms are poison for TX Dem base turnout. The fact that Beto could get more votes than Hillary Clinton in a midterm is just a stunning achievement.

If this could be achieved in a midterm in which Texans were skeptical that their votes really did matter, imagine what can be achieved in a Presidential election when everyone is clear that TX actually matters and is competitive. Democrats have a very high potential ceiling in TX that just gets higher every day while the Republican ceiling gets lower every day as TX gets less white.

In some ways, it could actually be more favorable over the longer term than Florida, because Florida receives a continuing stream of old white retirees to keep propping up the GOP and offset minority population growth, whereas TX does not.

[Yank2133]

How strong is Cornyn anyway? IMO, even though Cruz is despised, he seems to have a more loyal backing. It just seems like Cornyn is just "there".

[jaichind]

1. Scale of IN GOP victory
2. Scale of NV GOP defeat
3. How close OH was
4. How close TX was
5. Scale of MO GOP victory
6. How close MT was

[Calthrina950]

Here are my most shocking results (not in any particular order):

1. Ted Cruz, Joe Manchin, and Jon Tester winning by close to the same margin (3%). Cruz got the highest overall percentage, Tester had the widest margin of victory, and Manchin only got a plurality. If Jenkins had won the Republican nomination in West Virginia, and if O'Rourke had gotten higher numbers in the Dallas, Austin, Houston, and San Antonio metro areas, both Manchin and Cruz would have lost.

2. Rick Scott winning (narrowly) in Florida, continuing his streak of close victories and ending Bill Nelson's 46-year career in public office.

3. Joe Donnelly and Claire McCaskill both losing by a margin of ~5-6%, much larger than had been predicted in the polls. Moreover, I was shocked that Braun and Hawley both managed to obtain an absolute majority. I thought that Indiana and Missouri would be decided with pluralities of the vote.

4. John James coming within 6% of victory in Michigan, far closer than most on here (and elsewhere) had predicted. He was the first Republican in 18 years to come within single digits in a Senate race there.

5. Jacky Rosen winning by 5%, much wider than the 2-3% victory I had predicted for her. And not only did she win, but she got an absolute majority, which was also not something that I expected.

6. Jon Tester clearing 50% in Montana for the first time ever, and outperforming Manchin in the process.

7. Mazie Hirono earning the highest percentage of any Senator, and becoming the only one to break 70%.

8. Mitt Romney doing far worse than in 2012, getting just 63% of the vote and losing two counties, while barely carrying Salt Lake County.

9. Sherrod Brown underperforming, winning by only 6%, the same margin as in 2012.

10. Kevin De Leon coming within 9% of Dianne Feinstein, and sweeping the majority of California's counties.