Victorian State Election, 2018

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Love the Aussie Battler Party.

Hopefully they get some momentum.

https://www.aussiebattlerparty.com.au/

"ABP was created to represent all those who are fed up with politicians wasting our time and money. Politicians who have forgotten what it is like to live in mainstream society, dealing with big companies, government departments and unresponsive officials!"

They could just come out and say it:

Are you tired of dealing with overseas call centres, government departments who take 6 months to do anything and greedy capitalist Oil and Gas companies and Iron Ore tycoons.

Walter Mikac is a candidate. Amazing stuff.

They're probably winning a seat on less than 1% in Western Metro because of Glenn Druery.
We have no idea of their policies. No idea of who they are. And no one voted for them. And they've got 1 seat in the upper house because of preference deals. It's basically Ricky Muir 2.0. This isn't a remotely good thing.
Also, hahahahahahaha to momentum. They're this months micro party that paid Glenn Druery the most money. They'll be dead in a year.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Using the most recent numbers, a Proportional LA.
(as there are still seats in doubt, I'm not doing + and -)

38 Labor
27 Liberal
9 Green
5 National
2 Animal Justice
1 Shooters, Fishers, and Farmers
1 Democratic Labour
1 Vic. Socialist
1 Reason
1 Transport Matters
1 Hinch's Justice
1 Country

Sustainable Australia misses out on the last seat by 40 votes to the Country Party.

if Independent were a specific party, they would get 6 seats, taking out all 1 seater parties except the Shooters.

Actually going over the numbers again, Sheed would get in, not sure about other independents, putting the LA at this:

38 Labor
27 Liberal
9 Green
5 National
2 Animal Justice
1 Shooters, Fishers, and Farmers
1 Democratic Labour
1 Independent (Suzanna Sheed)
1 Vic. Socialist
1 Reason
1 Transport Matters
1 Hinch's Justice

[Vosem]

Kevin Bonham thinks the Aussie Battler cascade in Eastern Vic is likely to fail if they fall behind Derryn Hinch at a critical point in the count, which is likely assuming even a tiny BTL leakage from anyone to Hinch, and at that point preferences flow to the Shooters, who end up holding their seat.

[Lachi]

VIC election 2018
Seats in doubt (2014 margin)
Friday Afternoon update, 3:45 PM

Bayswater (LIB 4.6% margin): Labor ahead by 266 votes (still no change, I'd have called it by now tbh.)

Benambra (N/A): Lib ahead by 226 votes against Hawkins (IND) (No changes. This'll be a very close result.)

Brunswick (LAB 2.2% Vs. GRN): Greens ahead by 420 votes against Labor (hehe, 420) (Labor gain 2 votes. This will be a Green gain unless something dramatic happens.)

Caulfield (LIB 4.9%): Libs ahead by 26 votes (Labor officially gain 14 votes, however, Labor scrutineers claiming they are up by around 300 with only a small handful left to count. We will have to see as those votes come in if this is correct.)

Hawthorn (LIB 8.6%): Labor ahead by 154 votes (no changes. This one isn't looking good for the libs, to say the least)

Mildura (NAT 8% Vs. Cupper): Cupper (IND) ahead by 332 votes against the Nats (Cupper gains 51 votes. This is looking pretty good for Cupper)

Prahran (GRN 0.4% Vs. Lib): Who the hell knows, it could be either Labor gain or Green retain. The primary vote gap between Labor and green is at 1.0%, with Greens on 28, and Labor on 29. Whoever ends up in 2nd place after preferences will win, as the Lib vote is way, way too low to have any sort of chance. Greens have been making gains, however.

Ripon (LIB 0.8%): Libs ahead by 66 votes (Labor gain 1 vote. Absolutely no clue who will win here, but I'd rather be the Lib at this point)

[Lachi]

In terms of the LC:
EMET: will probably be 2 Lab, 2 Lib, 1 TMP

EVIC: right now facing a 1-1-1-1-1 situation, but will most likely see Labor beat out AJP for the final seat on further counting.
Prediction: 2 Lab, 1 Lib, 1 Nat, 1 SFF

NMET: This one could see Patten upset the Libs, if Greens stay above a quota.
Prediction: 2 Lab, 1 Grn, 1 Reason, 1 DHJP

NVIC: The coalition has massively underperformed here, which could cost the Nats their seat. All depends on how many people voted below the line.
Prediction: 2 Lab, 1 Lib, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 DHJP

SEMET: it is looking like the calculator is wrong here, Transport Matters will most likely be shut out by the Liberal Democrats, who have done extremely well on preferences despite underperforming on primary votes
Prediction: 3 Lab, 1 Lib, 1 LD

SMET: 2 Lab, 2 Lib, 1 Sustainable Australia. This would be the Greens best shot of a second seat, but they aren't close right now.

WMET: 3 Lab, 1 Lib, 5th seat between Shooters and DHJP. Shooters is favoured

WVIC: 2 Lab, 1 Lib, 1 AJP, 5th seat between DHJP and the Nats.

[Lachi]

I most likely will not be posting any updates for the next 36 hours.
Please go to this website for all the latest updates
https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/State2018/Summary.html

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Say hello to Victoria's brand new parliament.
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