Who will be the next CDU chairman?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I wonder what the 1% gay delegates will do in the second round.
Both Merz and AKK made very homophobic remarks in the past, the latter wholeheartedly repeated them on a political talk show just some weeks ago...

[palandio]

[...]
The CDU has become a women's party thanks to the AfD. And if you substract the CSU out, it will become even more devastating for the former men's party.
[...]

Electorally the CDU has always been a women's party, particularly until ca. 1970, but also later. It's a fact that continues to surprise present-day people, who would rather uninformedly assume the contrary just out of gut feeling. If you don't believe me just look up the Repräsentative Wahlstatistik time series including all federal elections since 1953 (except 1990 and 1994). If anything you could maybe say that Merkel has temporarily halted the trend common in most Western countries, i.e. conservative parties turning into men's parties.

[Coffein00]

You should know that BILD and BILD AM SONNTAG are the FOX News of Germany.

Yeah, the Bild is a sh**tty paper, but I wouldn't compare its bias to Fox News.
Anyway, they published the list of the delegates and the answer they gave them when they asked who they will vote for, so I think its legit to use their raw data.

Coffein, thanks for that info.  Any projections on which lander delegations will be strongholds for each candidate?

I did the work and counted the single votes for all 15 states and the Brüssel vote:

Bundesland (State)	Delegates	AKK	Merz	Spahn
Berlin	30	2	2	2
Rheinland-Pfalz	89	13	10	0
Sachsen-Anhalt	18	2	0	0
Brandenburg	17	0	0	0
Sachsen	30	1	10	1
Thüringen	24	2	1	0
Saarland	34	21	0	0
Nordrhein-Westfalen	296	21	46	20
Hamburg	17	1	7	0
Schleswig-Holstein	47	11	4	0
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern	14	1	0	1
Bremen	5	1	0	0
Niedersachsen	137	6	13	1
Hessen	88	6	7	3
Baden-Würtemberg	154	11	44	0
Brüssel	1	0	0	1

Another thing I want to mention:
Many "establishment"-delegates (MPs, party leadership, many high-level state legislators etc.) did refuse to answer, so I would not be suprised, if there would be actually much more votes for AKK at the convention.

As mentioned before, this survey is not representative, but might give some useful insight anyway, for example that Merz is not completely without any chance and that Spahn actually will get a few votes.

I think this question was already answered, but to be explicit: There are 343 women (34.27%) and 658 men.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I did the work and counted the single votes for all 15 states and the Brüssel vote:

Bundesland (State)	Delegates	AKK	Merz	Spahn
Berlin	30	2	2	2
Rheinland-Pfalz	89	13	10	0
Sachsen-Anhalt	18	2	0	0
Brandenburg	17	0	0	0
Sachsen	30	1	10	1
Thüringen	24	2	1	0
Saarland	34	21	0	0
Nordrhein-Westfalen	296	21	46	20
Hamburg	17	1	7	0
Schleswig-Holstein	47	11	4	0
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern	14	1	0	1
Bremen	5	1	0	0
Niedersachsen	137	6	13	1
Hessen	88	6	7	3
Baden-Würtemberg	154	11	44	0
Brüssel	1	0	0	1

Great work! 👍🏻

I wonder who the Spahn supporter from MV may be? Don't tell me it's this guy...😂

[Coffein00]

I wonder who the Spahn supporter from MV may be? Don't tell me it's this guy...😂

How did you know :-P

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

How did you know :-P

When I saw him on TV for the very first time, he reminded me so of Spahn.
I was absolutely staggered when I discovered that that Milchbubi careerist won the direct mandate of that Bundestag district which encompasses all Landtag districts won by the AfD.

[Aurelio21]

You should know that BILD and BILD AM SONNTAG are the FOX News of Germany.

Yeah, the Bild is a sh**tty paper, but I wouldn't compare its bias to Fox News.
Anyway, they published the list of the delegates and the answer they gave them when they asked who they will vote for, so I think its legit to use their raw data.

Coffein, thanks for that info.  Any projections on which lander delegations will be strongholds for each candidate?

I did the work and counted the single votes for all 15 states and the Brüssel vote:

Bundesland (State)	Delegates	AKK	Merz	Spahn
Berlin	30	2	2	2
Rheinland-Pfalz	89	13	10	0
Sachsen-Anhalt	18	2	0	0
Brandenburg	17	0	0	0
Sachsen	30	1	10	1
Thüringen	24	2	1	0
Saarland	34	21	0	0
Nordrhein-Westfalen	296	21	46	20
Hamburg	17	1	7	0
Schleswig-Holstein	47	11	4	0
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern	14	1	0	1
Bremen	5	1	0	0
Niedersachsen	137	6	13	1
Hessen	88	6	7	3
Baden-Würtemberg	154	11	44	0
Brüssel	1	0	0	1

Another thing I want to mention:
Many "establishment"-delegates (MPs, party leadership, many high-level state legislators etc.) did refuse to answer, so I would not be suprised, if there would be actually much more votes for AKK at the convention.

As mentioned before, this survey is not representative, but might give some useful insight anyway, for example that Merz is not completely without any chance and that Spahn actually will get a few votes.

I think this question was already answered, but to be explicit: There are 343 women (34.27%) and 658 men.

About "Biild": The analogy with Fox News is quite obvious. To Mr Trump's Sean Hannity is an equivalence, too: Friede Springer, the propiertor of "Bild" frequently dines with Angela Merkel and Liz Mohn, the heiress of the other dominating media group Bertelsmann.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Do you understand what some of us consider the problem? A list of all the latest polls is only meaningful to a certain degree when they're polling CDU voters and not delegates. Comprende?

Comprendí. ¡No te exaltes! I just proceed on the assumption that a) the delegation shares similar views as the CDU support base and b) that the delegates are strongly oriented towards the opinion of their voters.

[palandio]

Do you understand what some of us consider the problem? A list of all the latest polls is only meaningful to a certain degree when they're polling CDU voters and not delegates. Comprende?

Comprendí. ¡No te exaltes! I just proceed on the assumption that a) the delegation shares similar views as the CDU support base and b) that the delegates are strongly oriented towards the opinion of their voters.

Ok, as long as there is no other information, it makes more sense to proceed on your assumptions than to assume the contrary. I think that someone tried to poll real delegates and that among these delegates AKK was weaker and Spahn stronger than among the whole CDU electorate, with Merz ahead of AKK and Spahn still behind. But you could rightfully doubt the representativity of the sample. So, altogether we don't know very much yet.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Do you understand what some of us consider the problem? A list of all the latest polls is only meaningful to a certain degree when they're polling CDU voters and not delegates. Comprende?

Comprendí. ¡No te exaltes! I just proceed on the assumption that a) the delegation shares similar views as the CDU support base and b) that the delegates are strongly oriented towards the opinion of their voters.

Ok, as long as there is no other information, it makes more sense to proceed on your assumptions than to assume the contrary. I think that someone tried to poll real delegates and that among these delegates AKK was weaker and Spahn stronger than among the whole CDU electorate, with Merz ahead of AKK and Spahn still behind. But you could rightfully doubt the representativity of the sample. So, altogether we don't know very much yet.

The worst thing that could happen to AKK is receiving a plurality of votes. If her result isn't near 50% I don't know how she could survive the second round.

[Lechasseur]

Do you understand what some of us consider the problem? A list of all the latest polls is only meaningful to a certain degree when they're polling CDU voters and not delegates. Comprende?

Comprendí. ¡No te exaltes! I just proceed on the assumption that a) the delegation shares similar views as the CDU support base and b) that the delegates are strongly oriented towards the opinion of their voters.

Ok, as long as there is no other information, it makes more sense to proceed on your assumptions than to assume the contrary. I think that someone tried to poll real delegates and that among these delegates AKK was weaker and Spahn stronger than among the whole CDU electorate, with Merz ahead of AKK and Spahn still behind. But you could rightfully doubt the representativity of the sample. So, altogether we don't know very much yet.

The worst thing that could happen to AKK is receiving a plurality of votes. If her result isn't near 50% I don't know how she could survive the second round.

Agreed, I think Merz would get virtually all of Spahn's votes in the second round

[Aurelio21]

Do you understand what some of us consider the problem? A list of all the latest polls is only meaningful to a certain degree when they're polling CDU voters and not delegates. Comprende?

Comprendí. ¡No te exaltes! I just proceed on the assumption that a) the delegation shares similar views as the CDU support base and b) that the delegates are strongly oriented towards the opinion of their voters.

Ok, as long as there is no other information, it makes more sense to proceed on your assumptions than to assume the contrary. I think that someone tried to poll real delegates and that among these delegates AKK was weaker and Spahn stronger than among the whole CDU electorate, with Merz ahead of AKK and Spahn still behind. But you could rightfully doubt the representativity of the sample. So, altogether we don't know very much yet.

The worst thing that could happen to AKK is receiving a plurality of votes. If her result isn't near 50% I don't know how she could survive the second round.

Agreed, I think Merz would get virtually all of Spahn's votes in the second round

I am not so quite sure of it. Sure, Merz and Spahn are socially conservatives on migration and cultural issues. Economically I would not be so sure. Spahn is responsible for reverting to parity financing employers and employees of  the health fund. He is pro-regulatory laws for mandatoriy organ transplant donations. He promotes a pay raise in the Health care Industry. In these areas he resembles the social-democrat-in-sheeps-clothing AKK. And finally, do not forget that he still is minister of health thus being a secret weapon of Merkel to divide the Anti-Merkelists over economical issues(which are not reported by the press, but the divide is there) and convince some Anti-Merkelists that their guy is save for the future.

If he and Merz would have the exact same electorate, he would not have taken the risk. To all readers from america: there are no primaries. And CDU delegates and party Insiders have a loooong-reaching memory(according to my uncle and cousin). Any non-successful run for office is extremely damadging thus Spahn should have a good strategy.

I cannot imagine a Merz cabinet with a health minister promoting social-democratic ideas. As soon as he has won, Merkel can only resign as Merz is the candidate of her archenemy, former Minister of Finance and president of the federal diet, Wolgang Schaeuble. The CDU-SPD coalition would be there on paper as long as the AfD and Greens are possibly winners of an early election. As soon as Merz would consolidate and re-integrate former CDU voters from the AfD and FDP he would arrange an early election, and force Spahn into a turn-around of his recent political stance.

AKK would be only a placeholder of Mrs Merkel and thus he would have all day for planning his next promotion. Maybe Minister of the Interior(swapping Defence for Interior with the CSU  which would gladly discard Mr Seehofer) or Minister of Defence?

[republicanbayer]

ENDORSEMENT TIME!!!
There are seven official subsidiary organizations within the CDU/CSU:

Women's Union (FU; 155,000 members)
Young Union (JU; CDU/CSU's joint youth organization; 110,000 members; very powerful)
Seniors' Union (SU; 54,000 members)
Middle-Class and Trade Association (MIT; 30,000 members; very powerful)
Christian Democratic Employees' Association (CDA; many members)
East and Middle German Association (OMV)
Local-politics Association (KPV)

The Women's Union is the only sub-organization that has already committed itself. Guess to whom.
AKK also got the endorsement of the CDU Saarland state sub-organizations JU, FU, CDA and MIT.
The Seniors' Union is reported to endorse AKK, too.

There are some smaller CDU associations like the archconservative such as the "Values Union" or the "Berlin Circle" and the neoliberal Economic Advisory Council, all of which support Merz's candidacy.

There's another endorsement:

The Middle-Class and Trade Association (MIT) - unsurprisingly - endorsed Merz.

Wolfgang Schäuble endorsed Merz, which should be a huge boost to his chances of winning on Friday. He‘s also supported by Günther Öttinger, Roland Koch and Petra Roth.

Tobias Hans, Daniel Günther and Thomas de Maiziere are notable AKK supporters.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Wolfgang Schäuble endorsed Merz, which should be a huge boost to his chances of winning on Friday. He‘s also supported by Günther Öttinger, Roland Koch and Petra Roth.

One should be mindful of the fact that Merkel destroyed both Schäuble's and Merz's careers in the early 2000's when she occupied the former's post as party leader and the latter's post as parliamentary group leader.
Schäuble is reported to have arranged Merz's candidacy months before, which can be seen as an act of revenge.
Furthermore, Merz, Koch and anglicist Günther Oettinger (with Oe) belonged to the Andenpakt, an interest group of about twenty conservative men within the CDU who - vainly - wanted to thwart Merkel's 2002 candidacy for the chancellorship.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Does anybody of our CDU members know what votes will be counted in the first round?

• Will invalid votes count?
• Will there be the possibility of abstention on the ballots?
• If not, will blank votes be considered as abstentions?
• Will non-votes count, so that a candidate needs the majority of all 1,001 delegates (comparable with the election of the chancellor, who needs the majority of all Bundestag members in the first and second round)?

[Tender Branson]

Does anybody of our CDU members know what votes will be counted in the first round?

• Will invalid votes count?
• Will there be the possibility of abstention on the ballots?
• If not, will blank votes be considered as abstentions?
• Will non-votes count, so that a candidate needs the majority of all 1,001 delegates (comparable with the election of the chancellor, who needs the majority of all Bundestag members in the first and second round)?

"A majority among valid votes cast ..."

https://faz.net/aktuell/politik/merkels-erbe/so-bestimmt-die-cdu-die-nachfolge-angela-merkels-15865438.html

So, abstentions and invalid & blank votes will not be included.

[Aurelio21]

Wolfgang Schäuble endorsed Merz, which should be a huge boost to his chances of winning on Friday. He‘s also supported by Günther Öttinger, Roland Koch and Petra Roth.

One should be mindful of the fact that Merkel destroyed both Schäuble's and Merz's careers in the early 2000's when she occupied the former's post as party leader and the latter's post as parliamentary group leader.
Schäuble is reported to have arranged Merz's candidacy months before, which can be seen as an act of revenge.
Furthermore, Merz, Koch and anglicist Günther Oettinger (with Oe) belonged to the Andenpakt, an interest group of about twenty conservative men within the CDU who - vainly - wanted to thwart Merkel's 2002 candidacy for the chancellorship.

Honestly, anyone who thinks that the return of Mr Merz was an accident should ask himself why he/she is posting in this forum. Mr Merz is clearly the anti-thesis of Mrs Merkel. This is why I still hope, but not believe that he will win.

To me, Mrs Merkel is nothing but a green socialist in sheep's clothing. Her days may be numbered yet she wields a lot of influence still, especially via her "tea parties" with Friede Springer ("Bild) and Liz Mohn (Bertelsmann). The so-called Diesel scandals in the automotive industry are instigated by an association (DUH, Deutsche Umwelthilfe) which sues cities for absurd so-called "environmental measures" and is funded by the federal government. She does not defend the industry thus endangering the whole german economical powerhouse itself. With Mr Merz would be definitely a turn around in these regards, as well as in immigration and socialist measures even promotoed by Mr Spahn.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the CDU-leadership election:

1st round

48% Merz
48% AKK
  4% Spahn

Runoff

51% Merz
49% AKK

I think there is a hidden desire among the CDU delegates to get away from Merkelism and they will barely elect Merz in the end ...

[Aurelio21]

My prediction for the CDU-leadership election:

1st round

48% Merz
48% AKK
  4% Spahn

Runoff

51% Merz
49% AKK

I think there is a hidden desire among the CDU delegates to get away from Merkelism and they will barely elect Merz in the end ...

I fully agree with this -  we do not need 5 de facto green socialist parties here (includes the so-called "Free Democrats" which rhetorically are economic conservatives yet are socialists for the hotel, pharmaceutical and health care Industry). And unlike the polls published by the merkelista media(BILD, Bertelsmann), Mr Merz would win a primary easily.

Yet I do not believe that this will happen as Mr Spahn is a crypton-merkelista (his delegates will go mostly to AKK unlike what it might seem to non-insiders of the CDU, according to my relatives which are deeply rooted within the CDU). AKK has control over the party inside information flow as secretary general which proved decisive with the elevation of secretary general Merkel in 2000 when she discarded Mr Schaeuble over a scandal caused by Merkel's pre-predecessor.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So, how many candidates there are actually?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So, how many candidates there are actually?

Only these three. In order to have become an official candidate for the chairmanship, you must have been nominated by the federal CDU, or one of their state, regional, county or local associations.
It is reported that there were about twenty applicants, but only AKK, Merz, and Spahn received a nomination from her state party CDU Saar, the chapter in Fulda, and his county association CDU Borken, respectively.

In case of Merz's nomination, it was not his own county association, not even his own state party which nominated him. Merz' home county is Hochsauerland County in North Rhine-Westphalia. He was, however, nominated by the CDU chapter of the Hessian city of Fulda.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

ENDORSEMENT TIME!!!
There are seven official subsidiary organizations within the CDU/CSU:

Women's Union (FU; 155,000 members)
Young Union (JU; CDU/CSU's joint youth organization; 110,000 members; very powerful)
Seniors' Union (SU; 54,000 members)
Middle-Class and Trade Association (MIT; 30,000 members; very powerful)
Christian Democratic Employees' Association (CDA; many members)
East and Middle German Association (OMV)
Local-politics Association (KPV)

The Women's Union is the only sub-organization that has already committed itself. Guess to whom.
AKK also got the endorsement of the CDU Saarland state sub-organizations JU, FU, CDA and MIT.
The Seniors' Union is reported to endorse AKK, too.

There are some smaller CDU associations like the archconservative such as the "Values Union" or the "Berlin Circle" and the neoliberal Economic Advisory Council, all of which support Merz's candidacy.

There's another endorsement:

The Middle-Class and Trade Association (MIT) - unsurprisingly - endorsed Merz.

Wolfgang Schäuble endorsed Merz, which should be a huge boost to his chances of winning on Friday. He‘s also supported by Günther Öttinger, Roland Koch and Petra Roth.

Tobias Hans, Daniel Günther and Thomas de Maiziere are notable AKK supporters.

Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Peter Altmaier - probably Merkel's most loyal flunky - has endorsed AKK, both of whose home states is the Saarland, simultaneously criticizing the "dam break" caused by Schäuble's foray.
Altmaier said he was surprised at Schäuble's public endorsement for Merz.

North Rhine-Westphalia's Interior Minister Herbert Reul has also endorsed AKK.

Both Altmaier and Reul explained their decision by stating that they want the CDU to remain a "center party".

[Unimog]

it's gonna be AKK on the first ballot.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

"A majority among valid votes cast ..."

https://faz.net/aktuell/politik/merkels-erbe/so-bestimmt-die-cdu-die-nachfolge-angela-merkels-15865438.html

So, abstentions and invalid & blank votes will not be included.

Do you happen to know if there will be polling booths, like at this year's SPD party convention where Nahles was elected? It does make a difference regarding the secrecy if you can make your choice without your neighbor looking at your ballot or not.

[RedPrometheus]

"A majority among valid votes cast ..."

https://faz.net/aktuell/politik/merkels-erbe/so-bestimmt-die-cdu-die-nachfolge-angela-merkels-15865438.html

So, abstentions and invalid & blank votes will not be included.

Do you happen to know if there will be polling booths, like at this year's SPD party convention where Nahles was elected? It does make a difference regarding the secrecy if you can make your choice without your neighbor looking at your ballot or not.

There were not.