Who will be the next CDU chairman?

[Lord Halifax]

Who do you think is most likely to win the leadership election and become the next CDU chairman?

In most countries Merz would win, but the Germans and CDU in particular have a reputation for being cautious.


 

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

There are currently twelve candidates: three prominent politicians, three no-names and six literal no-names, whose names aren't even known for unknown reasons.
The only official nominee is AKK so far, since she has officially been nominated by her state party, the Saar CDU.
You can't just throw your hat in the ring, but you need the nomination of the party executive at the federal, regional, state or local level. In the latter case you even need (I think) the official support of three chapters.

[Tender Branson]

I support Annegret KK, but I guess Merz wins (barely).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Update: Friedrich Merz has been nominated by his county chapter Fulda.
Thus, there are two official nominees now.

I support Annegret KK, but I guess Merz wins (barely).

Bonn-based expert in international law Matthias Herdegen has renounced his candidacy and endorsed Merz.

[republicanbayer]

I hope Merz. Usually well informed journalist Robin Alexander suggested in a podcast yesterday that Merz seems to be the frontrunner as of now, but AKK could easily catch up. A lot will depend on the performance of the candidates at the 8 regional conferences.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

As for now hard to tell, although I guess Merz might be equal to early elections and I am now sure how many members of CDU want that.

[Lord Halifax]

The odds on AAK have suddenly dropped from around 1.9 to 1.1. Did something happen?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The odds on AAK have suddenly dropped from around 1.9 to 1.1. Did something happen?

Where did you get those figures from?

[Lord Halifax]

The odds on AAK have suddenly dropped from around 1.9 to 1.1. Did something happen?

Where did you get those figures from?

Betfair, it has increased to around 1.2 now; but what is the answer to my question?

[mileslunn]

I think Merz has the slight advantage as those who felt Merkel strayed too far to the centre are probably more motivated than those who want to continue with how she governed which is what AAK more or less is.  On electability it gets a bit trickier.

Merz: Will help drive down both AfD and FDP, also might be able to get AfD to agree to abstain on all bills that the government could fall over.  On the other hand pretty much kills any chance the Greens or SPD will agree to work with him.  Also might drive some centrists over to the Greens or SPD

AAK: Could easily work with Greens and SPD, but would probably help both AfD (Merkel II) and FDP (she favours raising the top marginal rate to over 50% which might be popular on the left, but won't go over well amongst FDP base).  Nonetheless greatly reduces the chances of Greens coming in first, or a Red-Red-Green coalition being even feasible.

Due to where the CDU is placed on the political spectrum it is not obvious who is more electable and also with leadership races not always whom is most electable wins either.  Both Trump in the US and Corbyn in the UK seemed like bad choices yet both did far better than expected even if both were more about pandering to the base than appealing to middle of the road voters.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The odds on AAK have suddenly dropped from around 1.9 to 1.1. Did something happen?

Where did you get those figures from?

Betfair, it has increased to around 1.2 now; but what is the answer to my question?

There's a yuuuuge media hype going on about Merz. Spahn, who has finally been officially nominated by his CDU chapter in Borken on Friday, recently made two very unpopular proposals as health minister, and AKK is a lackluster and bland candidate, whereas Merz, the hardcore-neoliberal BlackRock capitalist, is perceived as very controversial and provocative, but his divisive character could help the SPD. Plus, Merz dethroning the woman that killed his political career almost 20 ears ago reads like a soap opera-like storyline that is tailor-made for the popular press.
That's probably why.

[Lord Halifax]

The odds on AAK have suddenly dropped from around 1.9 to 1.1. Did something happen?

Where did you get those figures from?

Betfair, it has increased to around 1.2 now; but what is the answer to my question?

There's a yuuuuge media hype going on about Merz. Spahn, who has finally been officially nominated by his CDU chapter in Borken on Friday, recently made two very unpopular proposals as health minister, and AKK is a lackluster and bland candidate, whereas Merz, the hardcore-neoliberal BlackRock capitalist, is perceived as very controversial and provocative, but his divisive character could help the SPD. Plus, Merz dethroning the woman that killed his political career almost 20 ears ago reads like a soap opera-like storyline that is tailor-made for the popular press.
That's probably why.

But that should move the odds in the other direction. What I was wondering was if anything happened that would make AKK the clear favorite, which is what a return of only 10-20% compared to 50-55% on Merz indicates.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

But that should move the odds in the other direction. What I was wondering was if anything happened that would make AKK the clear favorite, which is what a return of only 10-20% compared to 50-55% on Merz indicates.

Wait ... lower points = higher odds?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Merz: Will help drive down both AfD and FDP, also might be able to get AfD to agree to abstain on all bills that the government could fall over.  On the other hand pretty much kills any chance the Greens or SPD will agree to work with him.  Also might drive some centrists over to the Greens or SPD

Friedrich Merz has recently taken a hard left turn, putting the AfD on par with the NSDAP and decribing them as "openly national socialist" while publicly praising the Greens' merits as a potential future coalition partner for the CDU. Of course that's also part of an opportunistic ploy to steal votes from AKK. Could possibly backfire on him since it's maybe a bit too obvious that he's just trying to sell us bullsh**t here.

[mileslunn]

Merz: Will help drive down both AfD and FDP, also might be able to get AfD to agree to abstain on all bills that the government could fall over.  On the other hand pretty much kills any chance the Greens or SPD will agree to work with him.  Also might drive some centrists over to the Greens or SPD

Friedrich Merz has recently taken a hard left turn, putting the AfD on par with the NSDAP and decribing them as "openly national socialist" while publicly praising the Greens' merits as a potential future coalition partner for the CDU. Of course that's also part of an opportunistic ploy to steal votes from AKK. Could possibly backfire on him since it's maybe a bit too obvious that he's just trying to sell us bullsh**t here.

That will likely hurt him as while people like politicians who are open minded and willing to change views if evidence shows original ideas don't work, they hate opportunists who change their views just because they think it will help them politically.  In his case it looks like he is the latter not the former.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

This evening the first of eight "regional conference" will be held in Lübeck, Schleswig-Holstein, this evening, which is comprised of members of the northern states of Schleswig-Holstein, Hamburg and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. It will be introduced by Governor and CDU state chairman Daniel Günther.
Only official candidates, who have been nominated by a local chapter or state association, are allowed to participate in the debate, which only holds true for AKK, Spahn and Mr. Coaster.
The participants have ten minutes to introduce themselves, and afterwards the attendees will be provided the opportunity to ask them some questions. The order of the performances is chosen by lot.

[Lord Halifax]

But that should move the odds in the other direction. What I was wondering was if anything happened that would make AKK the clear favorite, which is what a return of only 10-20% compared to 50-55% on Merz indicates.

Wait ... lower points = higher odds?

No, low points equal low odds. In this case 1.2 equals odds 1/5. It's two different ways of saying you get a 20% return on the bet. Higher odds, such as 2/5 which is a 40% return, means a lower probability something will happen. Bookies often use short and long odds instead of low and high to make it less confusing.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

But that should move the odds in the other direction. What I was wondering was if anything happened that would make AKK the clear favorite, which is what a return of only 10-20% compared to 50-55% on Merz indicates.

Wait ... lower points = higher odds?

No, low points equal low odds. In this case 1.2 equals odds 1/5. It's two different ways of saying you get a 20% return on the bet. Higher odds, such as 2/5 which is a 40% return, means a lower probability something will happen. Bookies often use short and long odds instead of low and high to make it less confusing.

Okay, I hope I understand now:
Low points ≙ low odds ≙ high probability?
And high points ≙ high odds ≙ low probability?

I always thought odds and probability were synonyms. But I was obviously mistaken...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

To answer you question, the following poll says it all:

[Lord Halifax]

But that should move the odds in the other direction. What I was wondering was if anything happened that would make AKK the clear favorite, which is what a return of only 10-20% compared to 50-55% on Merz indicates.

Wait ... lower points = higher odds?

No, low points equal low odds. In this case 1.2 equals odds 1/5. It's two different ways of saying you get a 20% return on the bet. Higher odds, such as 2/5 which is a 40% return, means a lower probability something will happen. Bookies often use short and long odds instead of low and high to make it less confusing.

Okay, I hope I understand now:
Low points ≙ low odds ≙ high probability?
And high points ≙ high odds ≙ low probability?

Yes

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Unfortunately, no test ballot was held on Friday. The interviews nearly all TV station conducted among the attendees of the debate clearly indicate an AKK win though.
Ironically, the order of their speeches drawn by lot happen to coincide with the eventual outcome of the upcoming chairman election. 😂

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

ENDORSEMENT TIME!!!
There are seven official subsidiary organizations within the CDU/CSU:

Women's Union (FU; 155,000 members)
Young Union (JU; CDU/CSU's joint youth organization; 110,000 members; very powerful)
Seniors' Union (SU; 54,000 members)
Middle-Class and Trade Association (MIT; 30,000 members; very powerful)
Christian Democratic Employees' Association (CDA; many members)
East and Middle German Association (OMV)
Local-politics Association (KPV)

The Women's Union is the only sub-organization that has already committed itself. Guess to whom.
AKK also got the endorsement of the CDU Saarland state sub-organizations JU, FU, CDA and MIT.
The Seniors' Union is reported to endorse AKK, too.

There are some smaller CDU associations like the archconservative such as the "Values Union" or the "Berlin Circle" and the neoliberal Economic Advisory Council, all of which support Merz's candidacy.

There's another endorsement:

The Middle-Class and Trade Association (MIT) - unsurprisingly - endorsed Merz.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Middle class would be a very confusing translation. "Mittelstand" basically means "small and medium-sized enterprises/ enterpreneurs.

Maybe "Industry and Commerce Association" would be a good rough translation.


But as we are talking about middle class. Friedrich Merz has stated in an interview, that he, unsurprisingly has millions in his bank account. On the other hand, he still thinks he is part of the "higher middle class", which seems to be a very tone-deaf remark. On the other hand, it is a common phenomenon at least in Germany, that upper class people pretend to be middle class.

[DavidB.]

But as we are talking about middle class. Friedrich Merz has stated in an interview, that he, unsurprisingly has millions in his bank account. On the other hand, he still thinks he is part of the "higher middle class", which seems to be a very tone-deaf remark. On the other hand, it is a common phenomenon at least in Germany, that upper class people pretend to be middle class.

I guess it would depend on your definition of upper class. If you're not from an aristocratic family or from a family that has long been super loaded (not just very well-off), it makes sense to think of yourself as upper middle class; the amount of money on your bank account matters less in that case.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Middle class would be a very confusing translation. "Mittelstand" basically means "small and medium-sized enterprises/ enterpreneurs.

Maybe "Industry and Commerce Association" would be a good rough translation.

I don't know that Mittelstand is also a term in the English language.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mittelstand