Who will be the next CDU chairman?

[republicanbayer]

I hope Merz. Usually well informed journalist Robin Alexander suggested in a podcast yesterday that Merz seems to be the frontrunner as of now, but AKK could easily catch up. A lot will depend on the performance of the candidates at the 8 regional conferences.

[republicanbayer]

Yesterday, the second "regional conference" was held. Initially planned to be set in Mainz, the meeting was rescheduled to Idar-Oberstein, Rhineland-Palatinate, due to the great crush. 2,000 members were attending the event (compared to the 900 attendees in the North conference). The conference was introduced by Agriculture Minister Julia Klöckner.
One of the main topics was the Global Compact for Migration, which Spahn opposes, Merz is critical of and AKK supports. The loudest applause is reported to be received by Merz, even though it was AKK's home turf. The most belligerent attitude was - again - shown by Spahn, who attacked Merkel this time after attacking Merz at the last conference. Both times his aggressiveness was not well-received by the audience.

Right now, the third regional conference is being held in the tiny town of Seebach, Wartburg County, Thuringia, in front of 700 members from Thuringia and Hesse. Merz just dared to question the constitutional right of asylum.

I watched the first two regional conferences on YouTube, AKK was ahead in Lübeck, Merz seemed to get more applause yesterday.
Spahn actually supports the migration pact, he just wants a debate and a vote on it at the party convention. But he said multiple times that he would vote for it. Merz gave an evasive answer: He said it would have been better to have a debate (and vote) on this some time ago and not just two days before the ratification of the pact.
The CDU Sachsen-Anhalt and the state‘s Governor Rainer Haseloff oppose the pact. They‘re also planning to conduct a poll among all their members regarding who should be the next party leader. The result will be published a few days before the leadership election. I expect Merz and also Spahn to do well, because Sachsen-Anhalt is the most right-wing state party.

[republicanbayer]

ENDORSEMENT TIME!!!
There are seven official subsidiary organizations within the CDU/CSU:

Women's Union (FU; 155,000 members)
Young Union (JU; CDU/CSU's joint youth organization; 110,000 members; very powerful)
Seniors' Union (SU; 54,000 members)
Middle-Class and Trade Association (MIT; 30,000 members; very powerful)
Christian Democratic Employees' Association (CDA; many members)
East and Middle German Association (OMV)
Local-politics Association (KPV)

The Women's Union is the only sub-organization that has already committed itself. Guess to whom.
AKK also got the endorsement of the CDU Saarland state sub-organizations JU, FU, CDA and MIT.
The Seniors' Union is reported to endorse AKK, too.

There are some smaller CDU associations like the archconservative such as the "Values Union" or the "Berlin Circle" and the neoliberal Economic Advisory Council, all of which support Merz's candidacy.

There's another endorsement:

The Middle-Class and Trade Association (MIT) - unsurprisingly - endorsed Merz.

Wolfgang Schäuble endorsed Merz, which should be a huge boost to his chances of winning on Friday. He‘s also supported by Günther Öttinger, Roland Koch and Petra Roth.

Tobias Hans, Daniel Günther and Thomas de Maiziere are notable AKK supporters.

[republicanbayer]

I don't like the fact that Merkel is allowed to deliver her final speech before the vote.

She could use some remarks to influence the delegates in their voting behaviour.

Merkel should speak after the vote.

She just mentioned AKK's ability to win elections and getting more than 40% of the vote...

[republicanbayer]

Before posing the question who may become the next CDU chancellery candidate, the question who will succeed AKK as general secretary must be solved. Young Union chairman Paul Ziemiak is being discussed.

I will now accept my accolades!
He, however, received a very low result: 62.8%.

What's interesting is that Ziemiak is the leader of the party's youth wing Junge Union, whose delegates mainly backed Spahn in the first round and were expected to support Merz in the second round. As we all know now, more delegates than expected switched from Spahn to AKK. Even though AKK and Ziemiak both say that there was no deal between them, it seems likely that there was one. Merz' delegates didn't like that, which is the reason for Ziemiak's bad result.