Who will be the next CDU chairman?

[Lechasseur]

AKK (ugh), but I support Merz

[Lechasseur]

Do you understand what some of us consider the problem? A list of all the latest polls is only meaningful to a certain degree when they're polling CDU voters and not delegates. Comprende?

Comprendí. ¡No te exaltes! I just proceed on the assumption that a) the delegation shares similar views as the CDU support base and b) that the delegates are strongly oriented towards the opinion of their voters.

Ok, as long as there is no other information, it makes more sense to proceed on your assumptions than to assume the contrary. I think that someone tried to poll real delegates and that among these delegates AKK was weaker and Spahn stronger than among the whole CDU electorate, with Merz ahead of AKK and Spahn still behind. But you could rightfully doubt the representativity of the sample. So, altogether we don't know very much yet.

The worst thing that could happen to AKK is receiving a plurality of votes. If her result isn't near 50% I don't know how she could survive the second round.

Agreed, I think Merz would get virtually all of Spahn's votes in the second round

[Lechasseur]

it's gonna be AKK on the first ballot.

Unfortunately I think you're right

[Lechasseur]

AKK will attract exactly nobody who doesn't already vote for the CDU. This also sucks for the SPD. Not as if there is much of a difference between the two parties. AfD and the Greens will continue to grow.

[Lechasseur]

Looking forward to the CDU dropping further in the polls, the Greens topping the polls, and AfD reaching 20%.

[Lechasseur]

Frankly at the next German election, if I had to chose between the CDU and the Greens, I'd vote for the Greens. If you have the choice between two leftist parties, might as well vote for the honest leftists