Who will be the next CDU chairman?

[Lord Halifax]

Who do you think is most likely to win the leadership election and become the next CDU chairman?

In most countries Merz would win, but the Germans and CDU in particular have a reputation for being cautious.


 

[Lord Halifax]

The odds on AAK have suddenly dropped from around 1.9 to 1.1. Did something happen?

[Lord Halifax]

The odds on AAK have suddenly dropped from around 1.9 to 1.1. Did something happen?

Where did you get those figures from?

Betfair, it has increased to around 1.2 now; but what is the answer to my question?

[Lord Halifax]

The odds on AAK have suddenly dropped from around 1.9 to 1.1. Did something happen?

Where did you get those figures from?

Betfair, it has increased to around 1.2 now; but what is the answer to my question?

There's a yuuuuge media hype going on about Merz. Spahn, who has finally been officially nominated by his CDU chapter in Borken on Friday, recently made two very unpopular proposals as health minister, and AKK is a lackluster and bland candidate, whereas Merz, the hardcore-neoliberal BlackRock capitalist, is perceived as very controversial and provocative, but his divisive character could help the SPD. Plus, Merz dethroning the woman that killed his political career almost 20 ears ago reads like a soap opera-like storyline that is tailor-made for the popular press.
That's probably why.

But that should move the odds in the other direction. What I was wondering was if anything happened that would make AKK the clear favorite, which is what a return of only 10-20% compared to 50-55% on Merz indicates.

[Lord Halifax]

But that should move the odds in the other direction. What I was wondering was if anything happened that would make AKK the clear favorite, which is what a return of only 10-20% compared to 50-55% on Merz indicates.

Wait ... lower points = higher odds?

No, low points equal low odds. In this case 1.2 equals odds 1/5. It's two different ways of saying you get a 20% return on the bet. Higher odds, such as 2/5 which is a 40% return, means a lower probability something will happen. Bookies often use short and long odds instead of low and high to make it less confusing.

[Lord Halifax]

But that should move the odds in the other direction. What I was wondering was if anything happened that would make AKK the clear favorite, which is what a return of only 10-20% compared to 50-55% on Merz indicates.

Wait ... lower points = higher odds?

No, low points equal low odds. In this case 1.2 equals odds 1/5. It's two different ways of saying you get a 20% return on the bet. Higher odds, such as 2/5 which is a 40% return, means a lower probability something will happen. Bookies often use short and long odds instead of low and high to make it less confusing.

Okay, I hope I understand now:
Low points ≙ low odds ≙ high probability?
And high points ≙ high odds ≙ low probability?

Yes

[Lord Halifax]

Now I want AKK to become chancellor, because I want the foreign news anchors to pronounce her name (ours will have to deal with Amy Klobuchar's name without giggling as a quid pro quo), plus I want to see Donald twitter her name.

He would just use AKK

[Lord Halifax]

Before posing the question who may become the next CDU chancellery candidate, the question who will succeed AKK as general secretary must be solved. Young Union chairman Paul Ziemiak is being discussed.

Apparently Ziemiak is 33 years old. In Germany, you lead the youth wing at 33 years old. In the Netherlands, you lead the party.

That's nothing, you can be a Young Republican to 40.

Same here.

Youth wings of parties are typically led by 16-20 year olds here ...

The CDU must be made of real extreme geezers for 33 years to be considered young.