Who will be the next CDU chairman?

[Aurelio21]

You should know that BILD and BILD AM SONNTAG are the FOX News of Germany.

Yeah, the Bild is a sh**tty paper, but I wouldn't compare its bias to Fox News.
Anyway, they published the list of the delegates and the answer they gave them when they asked who they will vote for, so I think its legit to use their raw data.

Coffein, thanks for that info.  Any projections on which lander delegations will be strongholds for each candidate?

I did the work and counted the single votes for all 15 states and the Brüssel vote:

Bundesland (State)	Delegates	AKK	Merz	Spahn
Berlin	30	2	2	2
Rheinland-Pfalz	89	13	10	0
Sachsen-Anhalt	18	2	0	0
Brandenburg	17	0	0	0
Sachsen	30	1	10	1
Thüringen	24	2	1	0
Saarland	34	21	0	0
Nordrhein-Westfalen	296	21	46	20
Hamburg	17	1	7	0
Schleswig-Holstein	47	11	4	0
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern	14	1	0	1
Bremen	5	1	0	0
Niedersachsen	137	6	13	1
Hessen	88	6	7	3
Baden-Würtemberg	154	11	44	0
Brüssel	1	0	0	1

Another thing I want to mention:
Many "establishment"-delegates (MPs, party leadership, many high-level state legislators etc.) did refuse to answer, so I would not be suprised, if there would be actually much more votes for AKK at the convention.

As mentioned before, this survey is not representative, but might give some useful insight anyway, for example that Merz is not completely without any chance and that Spahn actually will get a few votes.

I think this question was already answered, but to be explicit: There are 343 women (34.27%) and 658 men.

About "Biild": The analogy with Fox News is quite obvious. To Mr Trump's Sean Hannity is an equivalence, too: Friede Springer, the propiertor of "Bild" frequently dines with Angela Merkel and Liz Mohn, the heiress of the other dominating media group Bertelsmann.

[Aurelio21]

Do you understand what some of us consider the problem? A list of all the latest polls is only meaningful to a certain degree when they're polling CDU voters and not delegates. Comprende?

Comprendí. ¡No te exaltes! I just proceed on the assumption that a) the delegation shares similar views as the CDU support base and b) that the delegates are strongly oriented towards the opinion of their voters.

Ok, as long as there is no other information, it makes more sense to proceed on your assumptions than to assume the contrary. I think that someone tried to poll real delegates and that among these delegates AKK was weaker and Spahn stronger than among the whole CDU electorate, with Merz ahead of AKK and Spahn still behind. But you could rightfully doubt the representativity of the sample. So, altogether we don't know very much yet.

The worst thing that could happen to AKK is receiving a plurality of votes. If her result isn't near 50% I don't know how she could survive the second round.

Agreed, I think Merz would get virtually all of Spahn's votes in the second round

I am not so quite sure of it. Sure, Merz and Spahn are socially conservatives on migration and cultural issues. Economically I would not be so sure. Spahn is responsible for reverting to parity financing employers and employees of  the health fund. He is pro-regulatory laws for mandatoriy organ transplant donations. He promotes a pay raise in the Health care Industry. In these areas he resembles the social-democrat-in-sheeps-clothing AKK. And finally, do not forget that he still is minister of health thus being a secret weapon of Merkel to divide the Anti-Merkelists over economical issues(which are not reported by the press, but the divide is there) and convince some Anti-Merkelists that their guy is save for the future.

If he and Merz would have the exact same electorate, he would not have taken the risk. To all readers from america: there are no primaries. And CDU delegates and party Insiders have a loooong-reaching memory(according to my uncle and cousin). Any non-successful run for office is extremely damadging thus Spahn should have a good strategy.

I cannot imagine a Merz cabinet with a health minister promoting social-democratic ideas. As soon as he has won, Merkel can only resign as Merz is the candidate of her archenemy, former Minister of Finance and president of the federal diet, Wolgang Schaeuble. The CDU-SPD coalition would be there on paper as long as the AfD and Greens are possibly winners of an early election. As soon as Merz would consolidate and re-integrate former CDU voters from the AfD and FDP he would arrange an early election, and force Spahn into a turn-around of his recent political stance.

AKK would be only a placeholder of Mrs Merkel and thus he would have all day for planning his next promotion. Maybe Minister of the Interior(swapping Defence for Interior with the CSU  which would gladly discard Mr Seehofer) or Minister of Defence?

[Aurelio21]

Wolfgang Schäuble endorsed Merz, which should be a huge boost to his chances of winning on Friday. He‘s also supported by Günther Öttinger, Roland Koch and Petra Roth.

One should be mindful of the fact that Merkel destroyed both Schäuble's and Merz's careers in the early 2000's when she occupied the former's post as party leader and the latter's post as parliamentary group leader.
Schäuble is reported to have arranged Merz's candidacy months before, which can be seen as an act of revenge.
Furthermore, Merz, Koch and anglicist Günther Oettinger (with Oe) belonged to the Andenpakt, an interest group of about twenty conservative men within the CDU who - vainly - wanted to thwart Merkel's 2002 candidacy for the chancellorship.

Honestly, anyone who thinks that the return of Mr Merz was an accident should ask himself why he/she is posting in this forum. Mr Merz is clearly the anti-thesis of Mrs Merkel. This is why I still hope, but not believe that he will win.

To me, Mrs Merkel is nothing but a green socialist in sheep's clothing. Her days may be numbered yet she wields a lot of influence still, especially via her "tea parties" with Friede Springer ("Bild) and Liz Mohn (Bertelsmann). The so-called Diesel scandals in the automotive industry are instigated by an association (DUH, Deutsche Umwelthilfe) which sues cities for absurd so-called "environmental measures" and is funded by the federal government. She does not defend the industry thus endangering the whole german economical powerhouse itself. With Mr Merz would be definitely a turn around in these regards, as well as in immigration and socialist measures even promotoed by Mr Spahn.

[Aurelio21]

My prediction for the CDU-leadership election:

1st round

48% Merz
48% AKK
  4% Spahn

Runoff

51% Merz
49% AKK

I think there is a hidden desire among the CDU delegates to get away from Merkelism and they will barely elect Merz in the end ...

I fully agree with this -  we do not need 5 de facto green socialist parties here (includes the so-called "Free Democrats" which rhetorically are economic conservatives yet are socialists for the hotel, pharmaceutical and health care Industry). And unlike the polls published by the merkelista media(BILD, Bertelsmann), Mr Merz would win a primary easily.

Yet I do not believe that this will happen as Mr Spahn is a crypton-merkelista (his delegates will go mostly to AKK unlike what it might seem to non-insiders of the CDU, according to my relatives which are deeply rooted within the CDU). AKK has control over the party inside information flow as secretary general which proved decisive with the elevation of secretary general Merkel in 2000 when she discarded Mr Schaeuble over a scandal caused by Merkel's pre-predecessor.

[Aurelio21]

What's interesting is that Ziemiak is the leader of the party's youth wing Junge Union, whose delegates mainly backed Spahn in the first round and were expected to support Merz in the second round. As we all know now, more delegates than expected switched from Spahn to AKK. Even though AKK and Ziemiak both say that there was no deal between them, it seems likely that there was one. Merz' delegates didn't like that, which is the reason for Ziemiak's bad result.

This is called "strategy": Ziemiak is a placeholder for the alliance of AKK and Spahn. AKK is the placeholder for Merkel. Spahn supporting Merz does not make any sense for Spahn as Merz's Andenpakt(To Name a few: T.Strobl(Schaeuble's son in law), FJ Jung and Roland Koch) has a lot of more figures with much more seniority/leading expertise than him. Socially Spahn Maybe more on Merz's side. Everybody here underestimated the fact that:
A) Spahn would have risked losing his ministry for health if Merz had prevailed. Merz would have forced Merkel to resign and called a snap election for himself with a big win for the CDU. Unlike with Merkel we would see at least a minority CDU/CSU/FDP coalition tolerated by the AfD. The FDP might look as more contemporary CDU, in reality she is a pure lobby association of the hotel, pharmaceutical and physician industry. Spahn would certainly have lost his current job to an FDP appointee and would likely be degraded to a minor post. Certainly not Minister of Finance(R Koch), Interior(Th Strobl), Justice(typical FDP appointee) or Defence (FJ Jung or Gutti).
B) Economically, he is more left/liberal as AKK. He re-introduced the parity funding the health care fund by employers and employees, decreed a pay raise for health care industry employees and raised the mandatory health care insurance tax.

By the way, my uncle and cousin are deeply disappointed. This way the CDU will have trouble crossing the 30 % treshold and is in danger of losing the leading position to the Greens if they nominate W Kretschmann(definitely a longshot yet the taste of power makes anything possible)


And let's be clear:
-The alliance AKK-Spahn has only a support of 62 % within the decision making class
- Mini-Me AKK will be blamed for every furher misstep yet Merkel will get the benefit
-As soon as Merkel is gone, who will keep this extremely heterogenous coalition together?
- Mr Ziemiak headed the JU, which was pro-Merz. Will he be able to keep out of trouble or will be seen as traitor within the JU?

[Aurelio21]

And let's be clear:
-The alliance AKK-Spahn has only a support of 62 % within the decision making class
- Mini-Me AKK will be blamed for every furher misstep yet Merkel will get the benefit
-As soon as Merkel is gone, who will keep this extremely heterogenous coalition together?
- Mr Ziemiak headed the JU, which was pro-Merz. Will he be able to keep out of trouble or will be seen as traitor within the JU?

Imagine the following scenario: Snap elections are occurring, Merz is nominated as the chancellery candidate, and the Greens will become the strongest party.
The triumvirate Merz/AKK/Ziemiak (the Spahn surrogate) would be annihilated and therefore engulf the CDU in a grave crisis.

Thanks for the reply. Your scenario is only hypothetical.

If your triumvirn called a snap election, this would be clearly political suicide. Mr Merz would have to "run" under AKK's conditions as center to center left candidate. His buddies from the "Andenpakt" would be marignalized thus they have no incentive to support Mr Merz, and he would have lost all credibility. The CDU would try to run as AfD lite and Greens lite at once, which cannot work. The political trend of tribalism is palpable in Germany, too.

Under AKK, there will be no candidacy of Mr Merz. She is obliged to Mrs Merkel and PM Armin Laschet of NRW. Thus instead of Merkel, either she or more likely PM Laschet will run. Keep in mind that Mr Spahn and the NRW CDU(home of Mr Laschet and the CDU caucus chair powerhouse R Brinkhaus) oviously saved her candidacy and thus for some time Mrs Merkel.

There will be no compromise candadidacy of Mr Merz, as he will rather do what he already did and stay out of politics until the cries of a CDU defeated by a Greens/AfD Maelstrohm will call for him leaving his self-proposed political exile.

Why could be Mrs Merkel successful at all with moving the CDU to the center? Because her predecessor destroyed the SPD. Before Mr Schroeder, the SPD was strong in several rural areas stemming from the industralisation of the 2nd industrial revolution. She appealed to the relative social conservative and economical left working class. Now she leaves them as well for social center left positions and contradictory economical policies(as mententioned above, reverting the social cuts of her CDU/CSU/FDP coalition).

But now with the catasrophical results of ALL her policies (immigration, social security, currency etc) the FDP and AfD cannot form a coaltion with her as an anathema to all disgruntled center-right and conservatives. Just look what happened at the "Jamaica" negotiations: Even the flip-flopping FDP would not approve of her -  as they would lose all her voters to AfD or non-voting.

Thus I conclude (and the center-right to conservative majority(socially/culturally) in Germany still exists. Mr Merz would be an idiot (which he clearly is not proven by his strategical retreat after 2005) if he would serve as figure head for Mrs Merkel misguided policies with the CDU.

(Added/Edited): Are you somehow affiliated with a leading position within a german political party? 6.3.2019 as possible day of the dissolution of the Bundestag did not occur to me yet sounds logical thinking from an inner party official. This would fail as President Steinmeier would have to decide whether to call an election. This is totally up to him, he is not the Queen of England who acts on advice of the Prime Minister. He will definitely not deliver certain doom to his Party, the SPD.

It is true that a faked failed motion of confidence happened 2 times before, yet under total different circumstances: 1) Mr Kohl wanted the popular mandate after ousting Mr Schmidt 2) Mr Schroeder had made a deal with Mr Putin about the Chair of Gazprom(thus the name GasGerd, and Mr Putin meddling in elections of other countries is not quite as new as one might think ;-) ) and needed an excuse for leaving the office. For all his failings, he is by far the most competent campaigner the SPD ever had with winning an unwinnable election in 2002 and reducing the difference to the CDU from 20 % to 1% in 2005. In both cases the President was CDU affiliated and a CDU victory imminent.

[Aurelio21]

 Aurelio, do you really think a Merz led minority coalition government of CDU/CSU FDP supported by AFD would have been feasible?  Would the FDP have wanted to be part of it, and what about the more centrist, left wing element in the CDU, which clearly is substantial in that it just narrowly elected AKK, would they have allowed it to happen?

Not directly. With an "negative majority" and a successful chancellor election in the 3rd ballot, a plurality is needed. A Chancellor can only be replaced by an majority vote of another candidate(50 %+1 vote of all members of the Bundestag). The Bundestag cannot dissolve itself, only after a failed motion of confidence.

After the 2017 election, the SPD excluded herself from any coalition for evermore. After the failed Jamaica attempt, there was a short period in which a CDU/CSU/FDP would have been possible, but Mrs Merkel refused. She wanted a CDU/SPD coalition very badly, and knew the President Steinmeier wanted the same.

Mr Merz is not compatible with any leftist party. Unlike Mrs Merkel he is willing to take calculated risks. And the FDP basically is a joke, it will flip-flop for the highest bidder as she desperately needs the health care and commerce ministry for serving her masters. Plus she is completely on board on any taxation reform proposed by Mr Merz. "Centrist" suggests that there are any principles, finding these within the FDP would take the same time as filling a black hole. Mr Lindner backing of the CDU/CSU/Greens/FDP coalition does not count, as the FDP would not only get nothing out ouf the pact(except maybe a tax cut for the hotel industry :-P) but lose all her voters from the CDU electing them as they could not stomach the AfD or abstention and thus being constantly blackmailed with a snap election by Angela Merkel.

The left wing of the CDU consists of 2 parts:
The "inner SPD" of the CDU would take a back seat, just like under any other CDU chancellor before and the remnant of the real SPD in the Merkel Government. Mr Merz would promote Mr Laumann from NRW and other affiliates from the CDA to a chief positions in lesser ministries. Except for Mr Altmaier. That's all they want, as you see in our Government, they are totally overchallenged(think: Mr Altmaier) of formulating consistent policies except for extending the welfare state.
The Merkelistas would simply leave the party and go back to the Greens, where they came from. And are already doing, see election in Hesse. Nobody would miss them with their PC double talk.

The AfD will not enter any government itself. This would be the foreseeable doom as the party is nothing more than mainly a collection of failed politicians of CDU, CSU, FDP and to an lesser extent SPD.The party "leadership" knows this, but a tacit tolerance would be acceptable/desirable.

This would work the following way:
1) After the 3rd ballot, Mr Merz is elected. As chancellor, he can name a cabinett at his will. The president will accept it.
2) The SPD and other parties on the left( I am looking at you, the Greens on economical issues) will occasionally collaborate out of fear. Just think of Heinrich Bruening. Any motion of no confidence will fail as the AfD will not pass it and elect an SPD or Greens chancellor*ess*
3) If any greater crisis occurs, Mr Merz will call out something called "Gesetzgebungsnotstand". This rather obscure provision allows governing with the Bundesrat instead of the Bundestag. The thread of taking the AfD into government and the necessities of Consensus play into Mr Merz strategy of indulging fear on the leftist parties of a AfD takeover. Mr Steinmeier as seen is a total snowflake and avoids any confrontation which would be abused by Mr Merz.
4) Depending on how successful Mr Merz fulfills his chancellorship (highly likely as he has demonstrated all his life - except for Mrs Merkel (only god knows why, or Mrs Merkel's agent handler ;-) ): The former CDU and FDP members within the AfD will desert the party and realign with their former affiliation and thus likely leading on an own CDU/FDP majority.

My assessment of the AfD(to understand my balanced approach to these topics):
The AfD has many sensible positions(reverse immigration, Islam, Euro, EU, taxation laws) , even overtaking the SPD on the left sometimes(e g temporary employment rules). But these are contradicting themselves in total. And then there are some problematic positions, too(understating). Personally, I see them as unelectable. As mentioned, they are mainly a bunch of failed persons which are even beneath GOP standards regarding civility. Until now, every caucus on federal or state level has excluded at least 2 members and/or has thrown their own party leaders out of the state or county caucus. I cannot fathom the abuse of power if these people took over a ministry or even the chancellory! They would just like Donald Trump discredit any sensible issue they have, for the gain of parties like the Linke or the Greens.

[Aurelio21]

And I think, they still want to (You don't govern with a party or even ask for tacit support, that you called "openly national socialist" a few months prior, as Merz did. THIS would be political suicide). So they can't actually turn to much to the right and a turn that is merely rhethorical without much substance won't help them or could even backfire (see: Bavarian state election).

Have you ever heard of "plausible deniability" ? He would just form a minority government, after everything else fails. There would be no need for talking with the AfD as e g a CDU at 36 % and a FDP at 9 % and an AfD at 13 % there would be no way of a successful constructive motion of no confidence.

And I seem to have lived in a parallel universe as the CSU had dropped to 33 in pre-election polls, switched their message to "no experiments" and than got 37 % in the real poll. CSU+FDP+FW+AfD had about the same percentage as CSU+FDP+FW in the previous election.

Only in the elections of 1998, 2002 and 2005 there was no majority of CDU+FDP(and from 2013 with AfD+FW), if you do not take the 5 % treshold in account.

If you do not want to pay attention to detail like quite a lot AfD-elected officials in parliaments on various levels leave their party and re-affiliate with their former parties, that's OK with me.

And if you do not want to see the total mess taking 1.5 million migrants (sorry, i should have said according to the Green ideology, they are all professionals, like maximally invasive surgery) into our social security systems has caused, then keep on dreaming. As soon as a recession caused by Trump's tariffs hits us, and the DUH shuts down the german main industry, who will pay for them then?